Editor's Note: Brian Edwards finished 2007 with a 70-60 record in college football, finishing the year on a 19-8 run (+1,030).
2007: LSU overcame a pair of triple-overtime defeats to win the SEC West. Then on a thrilling, drama-filled Saturday, just seven days removed from a home loss to Arkansas, Les Miles shot down an ESPN report that he was going to Michigan with authority. Hours later, LSU emerged from the SEC Championship Game with a 21-14 win over Tennessee.
Even better, Pittsburgh simultaneously shocked West Virginia in Morgantown, capturing a 13-9 win as a 29-point underdog. The Panthers’ jaw-dropping upset paved the way for LSU to return to the BCS title game in New Orleans, where the Tigers had beaten Oklahoma four years before.
This time around, LSU not only won the BCS title, but it dealt out woodshed treatment in a 38-24 triumph over Ohio St. as a four-point ‘chalk.’ After falling behind 10-0 early, the Bayou Bengals dominated the Buckeyes in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated.
Although LSU won it all – which is all that matters in the big scheme – I would be remiss by failing to mention its failures for our purposes. The Tigers were an atrocious 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games.
They pulled out three mid-season wins in come-from-behind fashion. Against Florida, LSU rallied from three separate double-digit deficits and converted all five of its fourth-down attempts – two that went for touchdowns – to win a 28-24 decision.
LSU also beat Auburn on a last-second touchdown. With one tick left on the clock, Matt Flynn threw a 22-yard TD pass to Demetrius Byrd in a 30-24 win.
Against Alabama, LSU trailed 34-27 and faced a fourth-and-long situation with 2:49 left. Next, Flynn found Early Doucet, who didn’t settle for the first down, breaking a tackle and shaking another defender on his way to the end zone. A few plays later, thanks to a sack and forced fumble on ‘Bama QB John Parker Wilson, the Tigers had a 41-34 victory over their former coach, Nick Saban.
Strengths: When it comes to athleticism, size and speed, LSU can match any team in the country once again this year. The offensive line and the defensive line are stacked, with both units among the best in the nation.
The d-line has three of the country’s best ‘front-four’ players in Tyson Jackson, Ricky Jean-Francois and Kirston Pittman. Senior LB Darry Beckwith was a second-team All-SEC selection last year.
Jacob Hester is gone, but the backfield is still loaded. LSU has four running backs who each averaged at least 6.6 yards per carry. Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday, Charles Scott and Richard Murphy combined for 1,396 rushing yards and 15 TDs in 2007.
The Tigers lost Doucet, but Brandon LaFell and Byrd are back in the mix at the WR position. LaFell had 50 receptions for 656 yards last year, while Byrd had 35 catches for seven TDs and a 17.7 yards per reception average.
Weaknesses: Will the leadership be as strong as last season? Hester and Glenn Dorsey were the heart soul of the LSU program before moving on to the NFL. The same can be said for guys like Flynn, Craig Steltz, Ali Highsmith and Chevis Jackson.
Most importantly, who will be the starting QB? Like I said, LSU has the talent – in terms of o-line, d-line, RBs and WRs -- to repeat as national champs, but next to nobody expects that to happen because of the QB situation.
Ryan Perrilloux was supposed to be the incumbent under center, but the dynamic local product couldn’t stay out of trouble. Following several suspensions, Perrilloux was finally dismissed from the program during spring practice.
That leaves the defending champs without a QB that’s ever taken a significant snap at the collegiate level. The candidates are Harvard transfer Andrew Hatch and redshirt freshman Jarrett Lee. Jordan Jefferson is a true freshman that might play himself into the picture.
If there’s a weakness on defense, it might be in the secondary. Steltz, Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon are gone, so the DB unit isn’t heavy on experience.
However, true freshman Patrick Johnson was considered the best cover corner in the nation coming out of high school, and he’s expected to start from day one. Senior safety Curtis Johnson is the veteran of the group, while sophomore SS Chad Jones made the All-SEC freshman team in 2007.
Player to Watch: Freshman CB Patrick Johnson – Few true freshmen can come into the SEC and step into the starting lineup as a team’s lockdown cover corner. Nevertheless, that’s what Johnson will be asked to do, and if he’s ‘as advertised,’ he’ll be up to the task.
Returning Starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)
Schedule: The non-conference slate looks weak because there are zero teams from other BCS leagues. With that said, veteran bettors are well aware of the talent within the programs of Appalachian State and Troy.
After all, the Mountaineers went into the Big House last year and beat Michigan in their season opener. As for the Trojans, they are 16-8 against the spread in the last two seasons. During that stretch, they have taken the cash in road games against Florida St., Ga. Tech, Arkansas and Georgia.
When you have an inexperienced quarterback, you’d hope your first road games wouldn’t be too daunting. However, that won’t be the case for the LSU signal caller that wins the job. The Tigers’ first two road games are at Auburn and Florida. The other SEC road games are at South Carolina and at Arkansas.
The SEC home games include Mississippi St., Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Letdown Spot: Sept. 27 vs. Mississippi St. – LSU has won eight straight over the Bulldogs, outscoring them 340-81 in the process. So obviously, it would be understandable if the Bayou Bengals overlooked Sylvester Croom’s team, especially since LSU will be coming off a colossal showdown at Auburn the previous week. With Croom steadily improving his team during his tenure, you might look at Mississippi St. catching a huge number in this spot.
Look-Ahead Situation: Oct. 18 at South Carolina – This trip to Columbia sets up well for the Gamecocks, who will be returning home after back-to-back road games (and likely victories) at Ole Miss and Kentucky. Steve Spurrier’s bunch will also be looking to avenge a 28-16 loss in Baton Rouge last season.
Not only will LSU be playing its second road game in as many weeks (at Florida beforehand), but it could very well be looking ahead to a home game against Georgia the following week. Remember, there’s a decent chance UGA could go into that game undefeated and possibly No. 1 in the nation.
Good Bets: Play Against LSU at Auburn: -- Whether it’s Lee or Hatch at QB, the signal caller will be in a super-hostile environment for his first career road start. Plus, the War Eagles will be looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaker at Death Valley.
Play On LSU at Florida -- I think the Gators win this game, but the situation sets up nicely for Les Miles and Co. The Tigers have an open date the prior week and they will probably be catching a healthy number. Since I think Auburn will knock off LSU and also feel the Gators will be unbeaten, we might even be looking at a double-digit number. If that’s the case, LSU will be the play, as I anticipate the Tigers losing a nail-biter at The Swamp.
Prediction: LSU is the toughest team in the SEC – and possibly America – to forecast for the 2008 campaign. Why, you ask? Well, if Lee and/or Hatch give Miles better-than-decent (not even outstanding) play at QB, then the Tigers will have a chance to win every game they play.
Then again, if the QB play is awful (which seems to be a possibility), there are five or six lose-able games on the schedule. I’m going to guess – the only option without seeing Hatch or Lee under fire – that we’ll see average production from the passing game.
With that in mind, I’ll call for LSU to finish 9-3, losing at Auburn, at Florida and vs. Georgia. The team’s defense and ability to run the football should be good enough to win nine games. Again, though, that could swing by a game or two either way depending on how things turn out at quarterback.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--LSU Top Five Players:
1-Ricky Jean-Francois (DT)
2-Tyson Jackson (DE)
3-Herman Johnson (OG)
4-Darry Beckwith (LB)
5-Demetrius Byrd (WR)
--Three University of Georgia players have been arrested stemming from incidents on June 28. The Athens Banner-Herald and ESPN.com are reporting that starting OT Trinton Sturdivant and reserve OG Justin Anderson have been charged with simple battery, as a woman has accused them of touching her stomach without her consent. Five UGA players have been arrested since the conclusion of the 2007 season.
--I watched some clips of the Ole Miss spring game last night and really liked what I saw out of QB Jevan Snead, the transfer from Texas. Snead has a big-time arm and Rebel fans should start getting excited about him being in the starting lineup for the next three years. My initial prediction for Ole Miss to go 5-7 might get some adjusting in the coming days/weeks.
--Other Ole Miss observations: Houston Nutt is going to use WR Dexter McCluster in the same manner in which Darren McFadden would line up at QB in the shotgun in Arkansas’ Wild Hog formation. And look for McCluster to have a huge season. Also, RB Cordera Eason looked impressive and should be an adequate replacement for the departed BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
