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Top 25 Preview, No. 9 Clemson
July 9, 2008
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Brian Edwards finished 2007 with a 70-60 record in college football, finishing the year on a 19-8 run (+1,030).
D uring Tommy Bowden’s 10-year tenure at Clemson, the Tigers have consistently knocked on the door of earning a BCS bowl bid. They have had several seasons in which greatness was within reach, including last season.
But here’s the thing: Clemson always loses at least one game it shouldn’t, costing itself a chance to break into the nation’s elite echelon of programs. In 2007, the Tigers lost to Boston College as an 8 ½-point home favorite in what was essentially a play-in game for the ACC Championship.
Back in 2006, Bowden’s bunch jumped out to a 7-1 start, only to lose two home games down the stretch. As a 19 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ Clemson lost 13-12 to Maryland. The Tigers also lost 31-28 to South Carolina as 5 ½-point home favorites.
In 2005, they lost a pair of overtime games at home, not to mention a 10-9 loss at Georgia Tech. In 2004, the Tigers blew a double-digit lead in the last two minutes of a 28-24 loss to Georgia Tech as seven-point home favorites. Later in the year, they lost 16-13 at Duke as 12 ½-point ‘chalk.’
Going into 2008, Clemson appears to be the class of the ACC. Miami and FSU are down, while Virginia Tech lost a lot of talent from last year’s squad.
With the league title seemingly within its grasp, can Clemson avoid its annual letdown game? When the Tigers face a ‘man-up’ contest on the road (possibly Nov. 8 at FSU) with everything on the line, will they step up and take care of business?
2007: With a chance to advance to the ACC title game in Jacksonville, Clemson fell behind early and lost to BC by a 20-17 count. Then in their bowl game, the Tigers lost 23-20 to Auburn in overtime.
Clemson won its first four games, including a 24-18 season-opening win over FSU on national television. The 4-0 start had the Tigers ranked 13th, but then they lost back-to-back games (13-3 at Ga. Tech and 41-23 vs. Va. Tech). Next, another four-game winning streak preceded the clunker against Boston College.
Clemson finished 9-4 straight up and 6-7 against the spread. Between the losses to BC and Auburn, the Tigers beat their arch-rival South Carolina 23-21 on a last-second field goal.
Strengths: It says here that Clemson has the best 1-2 punch of running backs in the nation. James Davis and C.J. Spiller have enjoyed stellar careers. Davis will become the school’s all-time rushing leader in November (at the latest) if he stays healthy, while Spiller is considered to have better big-play potential and will probably be a higher NFL draft choice.
As for the quarterback position, you have a similar situation. Senior Cullen Harper is one of the top 5-10 QBs in the country, producing a 27/6 touchdown-interception ratio last year. His back-up is redshirt freshman Willy Korn, who many considered the premier prep QB coming out of high school in 2007.
Harper has all of his WRs back in the fold, including All-American candidate Aaron Kelly. The senior wideout had 88 receptions for 1,081 yards and 11 TDs as a junior.
Defensively, Clemson returns 16 of its top 19 tacklers. This unit has some big-time playmakers like junior DT Ricky Sapp, who has nine career sacks. Also, bettors should keep an eye on true freshman DE Da’Quan Bowers, who is expected to start right away after many publications dubbed him as the nation’s No. 1 recruit.
The secondary is one of the best in the country. Phil Steele ranked Clemson’s DBs as the nation’s third-best, behind only Oregon and Ohio State. Senior safety Michael Hamlin was second-team All-ACC last year, making 97 tackles to go with four interceptions and six passes broken up. Senior safety Chris Clemons was in on 94 stops in 2007.
Weaknesses: The offensive line has some holes to fill, but I can’t find a glaring weakness with this team that I feel is Bowden’s best since leaving Tulane for Clemson. All the ingredients for a great season seem to be in place.
Veteran QB that doesn’t make mistakes? You’ve got it in Harper. Playmakers on offense? Davis might be the best between-the-tackles RB in America, while Spiller might be the best home-run threat from the same position. Also, Kelly is one of the country’s top WRs, while Tyler Grisham and Jacoby Ford can also make plays.
Solid defense? With the exception of the Virginia Tech game last season, no Clemson opponent scored more than 26 points and seven foes were held to 18 points or less. And, as I mentioned, this unit nearly returns intact with the exception of leading-tackler Nick Watkins.
If anything, I have to question the mental toughness (or lack thereof) that’s resulted in the aforementioned losses in key games during recent years. Furthermore, does this squad have the type of championship leadership it takes to hoist a trophy (whether it is of the ACC or national variety)?
Player to Watch: Da’Quan Bowers – Clemson fans are hoping Bowers is the second coming of Gaines Adams. It’s hard for true freshmen to have an immediate impact, but it’s easier for one-dimensional players (thinking RB and/or DE). That’s not to imply that Bowers can’t play well against the run, but it’s easier for a true frosh to contribute if focusing on one specialty. In other words, RBs can just take a hand-off and run, while DEs can just get after the QB on passing downs. Look for Bowers to do just that and if he’s ‘as advertised,’ he will wreak havoc in opponents’ backfields.
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Schedule: The opener is a non-conference doozy – vs. Alabama at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The setup is like the Florida-Georgia rivalry with a 50-50 split of tickets for each school. With that said, I suspect ‘Bama fans to probably have a 60-40 advantage, but it’s a neutral game for the most part. In fact, Clemson is a little closer to Atlanta (two-hour drive) than Tuscaloosa (three hours).
If Clemson can beat the Crimson Tide (I say it can and will), it should cruise into a Thursday game on Oct. 9 at Wake Forest with a 5-0 record. An open date precedes a crucial two-week stretch of road games (at BC and at FSU on 11/1 and 11/8). The Tigers close the regular season at home against arch-rival South Carolina.
Letdown Spot: Oct. 18 vs. Georgia Tech – There will be a lot of hype surrounding the Wake Forest game, so this home tilt against the Yellow Jackets could be a flat spot, especially if the Tigers beat the Demon Deacons. Paul Johnson’s team should improve as the season goes, so G-Tech might be attractive ATS-wise in a double-digit underdog spot.
Look-Ahead Situation: Nov. 22 at Virginia – The Cavs have had a tough off-season, so not a whole lot is expected of UVA in 2008. And that’s what could make this contest all the more dangerous for Clemson. This might be ‘that game’ the Tigers seemingly lose every year, and it could be a spot in which they are looking to clinch a trip to the ACC title game. The look-ahead aspect is in play because of the rivalry game against South Carolina scheduled for the following weekend.
Good Bets: Play On Clemson 9/13 vs. N.C. St. -- Clemson is clearly the superior team and will be looking to make a statement in its ACC opener. This matchup has pimpslap written all over it, so go ahead and lay the healthy double-digit number in this spot.
Play Against Clemson 11/29 vs. South Carolina – The Gamecocks will be looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss in Columbia. They also get an open date to prepare for the Tigers, who have to go to Charlottesville the prior week. South Carolina won outright at Clemson in 2006 as a 5 ½-point ‘dog, and the ‘Cocks will probably be catching at least that many points again this year.
Prediction: With the possible exception of the trip to Tallahassee, I expect Clemson to most likely be favored in every game. The tone-setting contest will be the opener against Alabama, and I think the Tigers will win a tight game as three-point favorites (my guess for what the spread will be).
Clemson will have a tough time winning at Wake Forest. Likewise, the trip to face the Seminoles at Doak Campbell Stadium will be daunting. I say the Tigers lose one of those games, but that’s it.
I’m calling for this team to avoid that bad loss that’s plagued it recently. For the first time since Danny Ford stalked the Clemson sidelines in the early 1980s, Clemson will be a player in the national-title hunt. The Tigers will go 12-1 and win the ACC title, but they won’t play for all the marbles because Florida, USC and/or Missouri/Oklahoma will be ranked higher.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Clemson's Top Five Players:
1-RB C.J. Spiller
2-RB James Davis
3-QB Cullen Harper
4-SS Michael Hamlin
5-WR Aaron Kelly
--I say Wake Forest is the second-best team in the ACC. The Demon Deacons have the best coach (Jim Grobe) in the league and the second-best QB (Riley Skinner). Look for Wake to go either 9-3 or 10-2.
--Another Clemson strength that I failed to mention is its special teams. In Spiller and Ford, you have dynamic speed guys that score on any touch in the return game. Also, kicker Mark Buchholz is the second-best at his position in the ACC, behind only Wake Forest’s Sam Swank, who is the country’s best punter-kicker combo player.
--Random ACC thoughts:
1-FSU will go 8-4 at best, possibly just 7-5.
2-Virginia Tech will win the Coastal Division.
3-It looks like another long year in Coral Gables. I say the ‘Canes go 7-5.
4-Don’t be surprised if Duke is good ATS and wins 4-5 games outright.
5-Sleeper Squad: North Carolina
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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