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Top 25 Preview, No. 5 Florida
July 16, 2008
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
U rban Meyer is about to begin his fourth season at the University of Florida. To date, his tenure has been a rousing success, especially on the recruiting trail.
Another high-profile class arrives in Gainesville this fall and expectations for the 2008 campaign are sky-high. Meyer has already bagged one national title during his tenure and another appears to be within the Gators’ grasp this year.
2007: At the start of the 2007 campaign, the Gators had a lot of question marks. Where would the leadership come from? Would the offense be productive enough to offset an inexperienced defense? Would Tim Tebow prove that he’s an accurate passer after spending most of his freshman season as a bruising between-the-tackles runner in short-yardage situations?
(For the record, this space had zero questions about Tebow’s ability to throw the ball. I spent last summer laughing at assertions that UF’s offense would struggle through the air when defenses stacked the box.)
By the time Florida waxed Tennessee 59-20 in Week 3, the questions had been erased and a national-title repeat was clearly a possibility. However, those hopes were dashed in a nightmare two-week stretch in early October.
First, Auburn came into The Swamp and shocked UF 20-17 thanks to a game-winning field goal by Wes Byrum as time expired. The Tigers won outright as 17 ½-point road underdogs.
Next, Florida went into Baton Rouge to face the top-ranked Bayou Benglas. Ten years before in 1997, it was the Gators who were No. 1 when Herb Tyler and Kevin Faulk led LSU to an upset win. This time around, UF was in control of the game from the get-go, leading by double digits three separate times.
But LSU converted all five of its fourth-down attempts (and Meyer failed miserably in using his timeouts at crunch time), including one for the game-winning score in the final minute. When Tebow’s Hail Mary pass fell incomplete on the final play, LSU had a 28-24 triumph, although UF took the money as a seven-point underdog.
The Gators answered with a 45-37 win at Kentucky when the ‘Cats were ranked ninth, but they lost for the third time in four games when Georgia took a 42-30 decision in Jacksonville.
UF closed the regular season with four straight wins, including a 45-12 clubbing of FSU as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ But the season ended on a disappointing note when Michigan captured a 41-35 win as an 11-point underdog in the Captial One Bowl.
Strengths: I’ve always felt like quarterback play is the most important aspect of handicapping. A great QB can overcome poor play-calling by the coaching staff, poor blocking by the offensive line and poor production from the running backs. In short, QBs can make things right when everything else goes wrong.
Tebow is one of those QBs. He became the only sophomore ever to win the Heisman Trophy last year. His numbers were absolutely insane. Tebow completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,286 yards. He ran for 23 touchdowns and posted an incredible 32/6 TD-INT ratio.
Have we even mentioned Percy Harvin yet? The dynamic playmaker who lines up at both WR and RB in Meyer’s offense might be the nation’s most explosive player. Harvin, who had more than 1,600 combined yards rushing and receiving in 2007, is coming off surgery on his Achilles’ heel, but he’s expected to be 100 percent by August.
Defenses can’t completely focus on Tebow and Harvin, though. Redshirt freshman RB Chris Rainey stole the show at the Orange and Blue game and USC transfer Emmanuel Moody is also eligible in ’08. In addition, the Gators might have the country’s best tight end in Cornelius Ingram, who had seven TD catches last season.
The defense was a weakness in ’07, but this unit will be improved. Brandon Spikes is one of the nation’s premier linebackers. Major Wright is a rising star at the free safety position, while Jermaine Cunningham is one of the SEC’s top pass rushers.
The return game should be a strength thanks to the presence of Brandon James, who averaged 18.1 yards per punt return last year. James is capable of going the distance on any given touch.
Weaknesses: Just like last year, depth in the secondary is a major issue. This problem grew even worse in the off-season when junior strong safety Dorian Monroe went down with a torn ACL.
There’s no senior leadership on the defensive side of the ball, either. UF’s defensive ends are solid, but there’s a bunch of youth, albeit talented, at the DT position.
Player(s) to Watch: DE Carlos Dunlap and safety Will “Thrill” Hill -- We usually just go with one player in this category, but due to Monroe’s recent injury, I’ll identify a pair of defenders who are going to have to come up big in 2008.
Dunlap got his feet wet as a true freshman, but he only saw playing time in certain situations. As a sophomore, he’ll be expected to be an every-down player. If he can live up to his lofty expectations, the Gators will have another excellent pass rusher opposite of Cunningham.
Hill will be a true freshman, but he might be asked to start right away. Rivals.com rated the New Jersey product as the nation’s No. 1 athlete in the 2008 class.
Returning Starters: 16 (8 offense, 8 defense)
Schedule: I feel like Florida has an extremely manageable schedule – for SEC standards -- this season. Certainly, the slate isn’t as difficult as it appears to be on paper.
Normally a non-conference lineup of Hawaii, Miami and FSU would be very daunting, but that’s not the case this year. Hawaii returns only eight total starters and lost its head coach in June Jones. Miami is off a horrible season and this year doesn’t look like it’s going to be much better. Ditto for the Seminoles.
As for the SEC, Auburn is replaced by Arkansas in the non-divisional rotation. The Tigers have beaten the Gators in the last two years, while the Razorbacks are in a transition year after losing Houston Nutt, Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
There are only three SEC road games and at Arkansas and at Vandy look like lay-ups. The trip to Knoxville won’t be easy, but UF has won in five of its last seven trips to Neyland Stadium and it gets an open date prior to facing the Vols.
The toughest games on the schedule – besides at UT -- are vs. LSU and vs. UGA in Jacksonville. The LSU game sets up a little better for the Tigers, who have a bye the previous week. On the flip side, the UGA game sets up better for the Gators, who have a home game against Kentucky the prior week, while the Dawgs have to go to Baton Rouge.
Letdown Spot: Nov. 8 at Vanderbilt – UF has won 17 in a row over the Commodores, but there have been plenty of scares along the way. In fact, two of the last three games have been decided by a TD or less. This game comes the week after the Gators play Georgia in what might be the most anticipated UGA-UF game ever. Don’t look for an upset, but Vandy might be a good play catching a bunch of points.
Look-Ahead Situation: Oct. 4 at Arkansas – I could see UF overlooking the Hogs with the LSU game looming on deck. The fact that Arkansas is going to be down this year also plays into this thought process.
Good Bets: Play On Florida Sept. 6 vs. Miami -- The Gators have lost six in a row to UM. They haven’t tasted victory against the hated Hurricanes since Kerwin Bell led UF to a 35-23 win in 1985. The last four losses have been especially painful.
1-In the 2001 Sugar Bowl, the only time Steve Spurrier ever faced Miami, the ‘Canes won 37-20 as seven-point ‘chalk.’ The game was preceded by a brawl between members of the two teams on Bourbon St. several days before kick-off. The results of the melee left UF’s All-American DE Alex Brown with a black eye in the days before the game. Translation: After the rivalry had been doormat for more than a decade, the ‘Canes came to New Orleans and kicked the Gators’ ass on and off the field.
2-Two years later, Miami dealt out a 41-16 pimpslap at The Swamp in Ron Zook’s first home loss (of many). How painful was that shellacking? Consider this: Florida lost five games by a combined 25 points during Spurrier’s 12-year tenure, only to lose by the same margin in Zook’s second home game.
3-The Gators jumped out to a 33-10 lead at the Orange Bowl and appeared to be cruising to a revenge victory in South Florida. But then former Gator Brock Berlin, who had transferred because he couldn’t beat out Rex Grossman for the starting job, guided a remarkable comeback. The ‘Canes rallied to win 38-33 and Berlin left the field mocking the UF fans with the Gator chomp.
4-With Zook out of the picture and Meyer on the way, UF met up with UM in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl. Charlie Strong’s head-coaching debut in the interim role went terribly, as Miami thumped Florida by a 27-10 count.
Therefore, there will be more than two decades of revenge in the air when the ‘Canes come to the Swamp in Week 2 for a prime-time affair. The number will be large, but don’t let it scare you because this game has pimpslap written all over it.
Prediction: Florida is my pick to win the national title in 2008. With the possible exception of the Georgia game, I see the Gators as favorites in each and every spot.
There’s a good chance that UF could run the table, but that’s not a necessity. The Gators could lose at Tennessee and still be fine if they win out from there.
As long as Tebow and Harvin remain healthy, Florida will have the best offense in the country. There is some vulnerability on the other side of the ball, but I think Tebow’s greatness will outweigh that factor.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--To be clear, VI's pre-season poll is compiled by votes from several members of the staff. That's why UF is No. 5 in 'our' rankings, but No. 1 in mine.
--Since Spurrier left UF after the 2001 season, the Gators are an abysmal 3-13 ATS as road favorites. On the flip side, Florida has been real nasty as a road underdog since 2003, cashing tickets in all seven such situations.
--Florida hasn’t lost a home opener since 1989 when Ole Miss won 24-19 in Gainesville. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Gators as 27-point home favorites for their lid-lifter vs. Hawaii.
--Tebow is the 5/2 favorite to win the Heisman at Sportsbook.com. The offshore website has the Gators with 13/2 odds to win their third national title in school history. They have UF with a season win total of 10 ‘over’ (minus 160). Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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