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Top 25 Preview, No. 2 Georgia
July 24, 2008
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
T he expectations in Athens haven’t been this high since Vince Dooley was on the sidelines and a guy named Herschel Walker wore No. 34 for the Dawgs. In other words, Georgia probably has its best team since the early 1980s.
The mediocre days of Ray Goff’s tenure are long gone. The broken promises of Jim Donnan’s reign are forgotten. For the last seven years, Mark Richt has led UGA to a remarkable 72-19 record.
Georgia is keeping the state’s best recruits at home. The Dawgs no longer take a back seat to Tennessee and Florida in the SEC East. In short, UGA is back on the national radar and a perennial top-10 team once again.
2007: Even though Georgia didn’t win the SEC, the season was a monumental success. The Dawgs went 11-2 straight up and 8-4 against the spread, winning seven in a row to finish the year, including a 41-10 pounding of Hawaii at the Sugar Bowl.
There was a disappointing home loss to South Carolina in Week 2. A month later, the Dawgs didn’t show up in Knoxville, where Tennessee thumped UGA by a 35-14 count.
But after that, Richt made all the right moves. With the Dawgs sporting an abysmal 2-15 record in their last 17 games against Florida, he decided on an audacious strategic ploy before UGA made its way to Jacksonville.
During pre-game preparations, Richt ordered his team to get a celebration penalty after scoring its first touchdown. According to Richt, the idea was simply for the 11 players already on the field to celebrate.
Turns out, the entire team rushed the end zone in unprecedented fashion. Meanwhile, UF’s coaching staff prevented its players from rushing the field for what could’ve turned into a Miami-FIU style brawl.
UGA was flagged 30 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct and the Gators did score on the ensuing possession. Nevertheless, the Dawgs had made their point. They were in Jacksonville to win, not to get pushed around. They ended up doing just that, taking home a 42-30 victory as 7 ½-point underdogs.
After a non-conference win over Troy, Richt reached into his bag of tricks again. With Auburn coming to Athens, he decided to break out black jerseys for the first time in school history. The result? Georgia stroked Auburn by a 45-20 count as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk.’
Strengths: Knowshon Moreno might be the best running back in the nation. Check that, it says here that he is the country’s premier RB. My pick to win the Heisman has break-away speed and runs with authority. This was evident during his redshirt freshman campaign, when Moreno erupted for 1,334 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns even though he split carries with senior Thomas Brown. (I was so struck by Moreno at first glance that I wrote this blog.)
Junior QB Matthew Stafford has NFL scouts drooling with his size, strength and skills. With that said, Richt is looking for more consistency from his signal caller, who has a 26/23 touchdown-interception ratio in his two-year career (19/10 last season). Senior WR Mohamed Massaquoi hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, but he could be poised for a breakout year.
The defense held foes to 17 points or less in eight of 13 games in 2007. This unit returns six of its top seven tacklers from 2007. Junior Geno Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the nation, producing seven sacks and 7 ½ tackles behind the line last season.
The secondary and linebacker groups are loaded with speed and experience. Senior MLB Dannell Ellerbe had a team-leading 93 tackles in ’07.
Weaknesses: Special teams could be an issue. Mikey Henderson is gone after handling the punt and kick return duties the last few seasons. PK Brandon Coutu was the best UGA has had since Kevin Butler, but he must also be replaced.
Are the Dawgs still reading their own headlines after finishing strong in ’07? Another off-season filled with player arrests lends some credence to this thought process. DE Michael Lemon was recently dismissed from the program, while starting OT Trinton Sturdivant could be facing a suspension after a recent trip to the pokey.
Player to Watch: Redshirt freshman RB Caleb King – Because of an injury and the depth at his position, King took a redshirt last season. But he was a prep phenom who has blazing speed that was on display at UGA’s spring game. If King can avoid freshman mistakes (missed blocking assignments, fumbles, etc.), Richt will be able to keep Moreno fresh and therefore allow him to be even more productive.
Returning Starters: 17 (8 offense, 9 defense)
Schedule: I think Georgia has the toughest schedule in the country. There’s a pair of tough road games in September, when the Dawgs go to South Carolina and Arizona State in back-to-back weeks.
A four-week stretch later in the season is even more daunting. UGA has to travel to Baton Rouge, Jacksonville, Lexington and Auburn. LSU, Florida and Auburn are in every pre-season Top 20, and a valid argument could be made that all three schools are top-10 material.
That’s five ‘lose-able’ games that’ll be played outside of Athens (we’ll give the Dawgs the ‘W’ against a rebuilding UK squad), and the Dawgs also face Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia Tech between the hedges.
Letdown Spot: Nov. 8 at Kentucky – Stafford remembers his last trip to Commonwealth Stadium. As a true freshman, he made mistakes galore in a 24-20 upset loss as a seven-point favorite. The Dawgs will be coming off physical and emotional games against LSU and Florida. I think UGA will emerge victorious, but gamblers should consider the Wildcats if they are double-digit underdogs at home.
Look-Ahead Situation: Oct. 18 vs. Vanderbilt – With LSU looming on deck, Georgia could be flat against the Commodores. Vandy won 24-22 at UGA two years ago and outplayed the Dawgs in a 20-17 loss last season. The ‘Dores won’t be as tough as the last two seasons, but they might merit a wager if they’re catching more than 28 points in this spot.
Good Bets: Bet On Georgia Oct. 11 vs. Tennessee -- The Dawgs will be out to avenge an embarrassing 35-14 loss last year, not to mention a 51-33 defeat in Athens two years ago. UGA has an open date to prepare for the Vols.
Bet Against Georgia Nov. 15 at Auburn -- UGA will be on the road for the fourth straight week, while Auburn will basically have an open date (it hosts UT-Martin) the previous week.
Prediction: I think Georgia is as talented as any team in the country, but the schedule is too tough for the Dawgs to win their first national title since 1982. I have UGA finishing 11-2 and winning a BCS game.
The Dawgs will start 7-0, surviving tight road games at South Carolina, at Arizona St. and at LSU. However, the physical game in Baton Rouge will take its toll and UGA will fall to Florida the following week. As previously mentioned, the Dawgs will also go down at Auburn.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Georgia owns an incredible 25-4 record in opponents’ home stadiums during Richt’s tenure.
--A recent report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution indicated that Cartersville High School’s Donovan Tate is considering concentrating on baseball alone in his senior year of high school. Tate, the son of Lars Tate, who is UGA’s third all-time leading rusher, is a big-time prospect in both football and baseball. Although a slew of schools, including Georgia, are offering Tate the chance to play both sports, it appears Tate is leaning toward a baseball career that could begin with him getting drafted straight out of high school.
--In Sportsbook.com’s “Games of the Year” section, Georgia is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite at Arizona St., a 9 ½-point favorite vs. Alabama, a one-point underdog at LSU, a one-point ‘chalk’ at Auburn, a 2 ½-point underdog vs. Florida and a 14 ½-point favorite vs. Georgia Tech.
--Sportsbook.com has Moreno listed with 8/1 odds to win the Heisman, while Stafford has a 15/1 number.
--The offshore website has UGA with 7/1 odds to win the BCS Championship Game. The Dawgs have a season win total of 9 ½ ‘over’ (minus 130). Gamblers can bet ‘under’ 9 ½ for even money. Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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