2007: Nobody expected Ohio State to be relevant in any capacity after seeing the majority of its offense from the year before. Yet the Buckeyes were able to take advantage of a soft early schedule, a better than anticipated performance out of Todd Boeckman and the fact that every top team in the nation decided they didn’t want to win a championship saw them back in the BCS Title Game.
Unfortunately for the Buckeye faithful, it was a repeat butt whipping at the hands of an SEC program, LSU…in their back yard no less. Despite the sour taste of a repeat ending, OSU’s season was a surprising success.
Strengths: It’s hard to pinpoint a single strength on a team that returns 21 starters that played in the national championship game just the previous season.
On one hand you have an offense that averaged 31.4 PPG last season, ranked 18th in the nation on third down conversions (45.9 percent) and a rushing attack that is in the Top 30 of the country with 196.9 YPG.
Highlighting that offense is Chris “Beanie” Wells in the backfield. Wells is tough target to take down at 6’1”, and he likes to run straight up the gut on most occasions to punish the opposition as often as he can. The result of his running style was 1,609 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, good for 11th in the nation.
As effective as Wells has been over his career in Columbus, he’d not be able to do anything if it weren’t for the men up front. Ohio State’s offensive line returns four starters for a unit that allowed just 19 sacks in 2007, second in the Big Ten. And let’s not forget that they let the rushers do their job to the tune of 196.9 YPG on the ground.
The running game isn’t the only thing benefitting from that stout o-line. Todd Boeckman is also expected to be better in his second full season under center. The senior gunslinger was amongst the most efficient players at his position last year, completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 2,372 yards and 25 touchdowns. There were only 12 quarterbacks in the country better than him in that capacity.
As strong as the offense has been, the defense is where Jim Tressel’s crew wins its games. Ohio State was home to the best defense in the country, giving up just 233.0 total YPG. Only 82.8 yards of that average were gained on the ground…and just three rushing touchdowns were scored on this unit in 14 games.
The odds are good that the defensive line will be able to put up numbers that are comparable to those made in 2007 thanks to returning three of four starters. The lone newbie, Lawrence Wilson, actually played in the season opener last year so his knowledge of the schemes is well known.
The linebacking corp is loaded with James Laurinaitis poised to take a run at the Butkus and Nagurski Awards once again considering how he can play against the pass and/or run. His compatriot Marcus Freeman is a quality pass defender, but now can plug the gaps in the rush defense too.
Weaknesses: The talent is definitely there for the Buckeyes to make their third consecutive national title game. However, will the coaching be there when it matters the most?
That’s hard to say when you think of how well Tressel and his staff have done since 2001. Yet you have to look at the recent body of work in the big games…particularly the inability to protect against the short pass.
Florida and LSU were able to keep their offenses on the field by being able to routinely convert on third and five yards or fewer. How frequent did they move the chains in this situation? Well the Gators converted nine times out of 12 in this situation. Meanwhile the Tigers went 11 of 12 to keep their drives alive in short yardage converts.
This issue reared its ugly head late against the Illini in Columbus on Nov. 10 as Juice Williams and company converted their final three third-and-short chances to seal the deal.
It’s hard to imagine that a staff could not prepare for such a play considering how it was exploited so effectively by Urban Meyer. This shortcoming can be major when you think about having to take on Southern Cal along with tilts against zone offense teams like Michigan will be with Rich Rodriguez and Ron Zook’s side at Illinois.
Player to Watch: Boeckman was making the good people of Columbus forget about Troy Smith to start out the year. Unfortunately, his productivity started to wane as the regular season came to a close against his toughest competition.
From Sept. 1 to Nov. 3, Boeckman connected on 156 of his 237 passes for 1,762 yards and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 23:8. In his final three starts (against Illinois, Michigan and LSU) he was 35 of 62 for 414 yards with two scores and six picks.
There is no worry about him losing the starting role just yet to super phenom Tyrelle Pryor. However, if he starts screwing up early on, especially on the road versus the Trojans, we can see Joe Bauserman call some plays. Or we could even see Pryor come in like Smith did for Justin Zwick from years gone by.
Returning Starters: 21 (10 on offense, 9 on defense, both specialists)
Schedule: The Buckeyes were the beneficiaries of a soft schedule to start out 2007. Critics won’t be able to make that comment this time around as OSU makes a trip out to Los Angeles to take on the Trojans. The league schedule isn’t going to play favorites either with road tilts with the Badgers and Illini at opposite ends of the schedule. And of course, the always important showdown with Michigan to close out the regular season at home.
Let Down: October 11 versus Purdue. The Boilermakers always have the possibility of being a difficult out when you play them. Joe Tiller has built that offense that is deadly from the air. And he’s had moderate success against Ohio State in the past, going 1-2 SU and ATS. This will be Tiller’s last hurrah as the Purdue coach and with OSU coming off of a road game with the Badgers, his Boilers could make it interesting.
Look Ahead: November 15 at Illinois. Don’t be so surprised to see the Illini in this spot. The next game on the schedule is against the new-look Wolverines and it’s easy to look past a team that is rebuilding for the most part in 08. Yet Zook’s squad is still led by Juice Williams, who gave Ohio State fits last year. This could be another nail biter for the Buckeye Nation.
Good Bets:
Sept. 27 versus Minnesota…The Gophers are bound to get better under Tim Brewster, but now isn’t their time. Ohio State’s 13-2 SU record in Big Ten openers and 17-1 SU against Minnesota in Columbus makes sure that the upset won’t happen.
Nov. 22 versus Michigan…OSU is a long way from the days of John Cooper screwing the pooch against the Maize and Blue. The Bucks are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus Michigan in Tressel’s tenure. They’re 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in Columbus in that time. Of course, the Buckeyes have never beaten Michigan five straight times.
Prediction: The Bucks were playing with house money for the most part last year en route to the title game. Ohio State is still the class of the Big Ten and will win the conference with no problems, but that game against the Trojans will determine if it’s playing in a third straight BCS Title Game or the Rose Bowl. Luckily for the Buckeyes, they take on a young Southern Cal club early in the year. That means OSU will go unbeaten in the regular season and make a trip to Miami.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
