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The other day when I was walking through my favorite Vegas casino, Golden Nugget, my friend Carl asked me why I had not posted an article on VI in a while. I answered him honestly; saying I was not sure, as I guess things had gotten away from me on the article front. So, with a mea culpa and a "thanks for the reminder Carl" - here is my first article in a while, and this time I expect to keep them coming.

Below is an alphabetical list of the Division 1 (no, I am NOT going to call it the FBS) coaching changes for this season:

Coaching Changes
School Former Coach New Coach
Arkansas Houston Nutt Bobby Petrino
Baylor Guy Morriss Art Briles
Colorado State Sonny Lubick Steve Fairchild
Duke Ted Roof David Cutcliffe
Georgia Tech Chan Gailey Paul Johnson
Hawaii June Jones Greg McMackin
Houston Art Briles Kevin Sumlin
Michigan Lloyd Carr Rich Rodriguez
Mississippi Ed Orgeron Houston Nutt
Navy Paul Johnson Ken Niumatalolo
Nebraska Bill Callahan Bo Pelini
Northern Illinois Joe Novak Jerry Kill
SMU Phil Bennett June Jones
Texas A&M Dennis Franchione Mike Sherman
UCLA Karl Dorrell Rick Neuheisel
Washington State Bill Doba Paul Wulff
West Virginia Rich Rodriguez Bill Stewart

Most of the names are quite recognizable to the college football fan, with of course the biggest and most controversial change coming at Michigan with Rich Rodriguez taking over for Lloyd Carr. By now most know that Rodriguez left West Virginia in a less than stellar manner and that he will be changing schemes on both sides of the ball for the Wolverines. There will be growing pains for this team, and note that his first WVU team went 4-7, then had a nice year before notching two seasons with a combined record of 10-14.

Next, let's look at which team, in this view, is parting with the best coach. Here are my grades (on a scale of 1-10) for the departing coaches:

Coaching Grades - Old
School Coach Rating
Texas A&M Dennis Franchione 9
Navy Paul Johnson 9
Arkansas Houston Nutt 8.5
Michigan Lloyd Carr 8
UCLA Karl Dorrell 7
Hawaii June Jones 7
Colorado State Sonny Lubick 7
Northern Illinois Joe Novak 6.5
Georgia Tech Chan Gailey 6
West Virginia Rich Rodriguez 6
Washington State Bill Doba 6
Houston Art Briles 6
Nebraska Bill Callahan 4
Baylor Guy Morriss 4
SMU Phil Bennett 3.5
Mississippi Ed Orgeron 3
Duke Ted Roof 2

As you can see, I really like Dennis Franchione, and I thought he got a big time raw deal from A&M. He had his detractors, and he made some mistakes, but the guy could coach and he could recruit. As for Paul Johnson at Navy, all he did was lead the Middles to a stranglehold on the Commander In Chief Trophy. On the other end of the spectrum, Roof was very forgettable, and Orgeron's mouth wrote checks that his coaching ability could not cash.

Now lets take a look at my grades for the new coaches:

Coaching Grades - New
School New Coach Grade
Georgia Tech Paul Johnson 9
Duke David Cutcliffe 8.5
Mississippi Houston Nutt 8.5
West Virginia Bill Stewart 8.5
UCLA Rick Neuheisel 8
Texas A&M Mike Sherman 8
SMU June Jones 7
Nebraska Bo Pelini 7
Navy Ken Niumatalolo 6.5
Michigan Rich Rodriguez 6
Baylor Art Briles 6
Washington State Paul Wulff 6
Northern Illinois Jerry Kill 6
Arkansas Bobby Petrino 6
Houston Kevin Sumlin 5
Hawaii Greg McMackin 5
Colorado State Steve Fairchild 4

With the above remarks, no surprise to see Johnson at the top of this list, and I for one thought Cutcliffe did very well at Ole Miss, and if given the time he should make Duke football matter again. Bill Stewart will do well with the Mounties, Rodriguez has a proven system and now the chance to get the best players in the country to run it, so Michigan will be fine very soon. I noted above that his first WVU team was 4-8, but it also should be noted that his next team was 9-3. Nutt will do well, and his Rebels go to Arkansas this year, where he was 41-17 in home games as the Hogs coach. I think Nueheisel is a nice fit, if only he can find a way to keep a QB healthy for the Bruins. Navy's new Admiral knows the system very well and should, pardon the pun, keep the ship afloat there, and Jones will help at SMU. Not real sold on McMackin and Fairchild, especially the latter, but they are unknowns, so time will tell.

Finally, let's merge all three charts together to see which program made the biggest coaching improvement this off season:

Coaching Grades - Differences
School Former Coach Grade New Coach Grade Difference
Duke Ted Roof 2 David Cutcliffe 8.5 6.5
Mississippi Ed Orgeron 3 Houston Nutt 8.5 5.5
SMU Phil Bennett 3.5 June Jones 7 3.5
Georgia Tech Chan Gailey 6 Paul Johnson 9 3
Nebraska Bill Callahan 4 Bo Pelini 7 3
West Virginia Rich Rodriguez 6 Bill Stewart 8.5 2.5
Baylor Guy Morriss 4 Art Briles 6 2
UCLA Karl Dorrell 7 Rick Neuheisel 8 1
Washington State Bill Doba 6 Paul Wulff 6 0
Northern Illinois Joe Novak 6.5 Jerry Kill 6 -0.5
Houston Art Briles 6 Kevin Sumlin 5 -1
Texas A&M Dennis Franchione 9 Mike Sherman 8 -1
Michigan Lloyd Carr 8 Rich Rodriguez 6 -2
Hawaii June Jones 7 Greg McMackin 5 -2
Arkansas Houston Nutt 8.5 Bobby Petrino 6 -2.5
Navy Paul Johnson 9 Ken Niumatalolo 6.5 -2.5
Colorado State Sonny Lubick 7 Steve Fairchild 4 -3

There are two misleading grades here, both for teams listed in the bottom rung. As stated above, I think Ken Niumatalolo will be a fine coach for Navy. The only reason the Middies get a -2.5 is because he is replacing one of the best in the business. Same is true for Mike Sherman at A&M. He is an Aggie at heart and absolutely should be able to keep up what Franchione has started. It is a credit to Sherman that he replaces a "9" and only has a negative value of -1.

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As for the biggest improvements, Cutcliffe over Roof is an improvement of dramatic proportions, and I think Cutcliffe will be the best coach for the Blue Devils since Steve Spurrier. Nutt is much better than the banished Orgeron, Jones will bring kids into the Mustang program that Bennett never could, Pelini will take the Huskers off the laughingstock pages, and Briles will hopefully bring the stability to the team that Morriss' helter skelter decision making style never did.

One hire I really did not like was that of Fairchild. Now, that might be because I was a big Sonny Lubick fan, but simply put Fairchild just does not, in this view, have the pedigree to be a D1 coach just yet. He was the Bills Offensive Coordinator the last couple of seasons, and I do not remember that team as being an offensive juggernaut in any way. He is a CSU alum, and that helped him land this gig, but I think that Dorrell, away from the glare of LA, might have done extremely well for the Rams and would have been a better choice.

Finally, lets look at two games in which the coaching grades will definitely come into play when analyzing things. The first is Arkansas hosting Ole Miss on October 25th. Using the chart above, Ole Miss is +8 in "New Coaching Points" - the biggest margin of the season. That one will get a ton of attention, but do not forget about Washington St at Baylor on September 13th. The Bears at home for this one and are +2 in "New Coaching Points", as while Wulff does have a nice D1AA resume, this will be his first ever D1 road game as a Head Coach. On the other hand Briles' Bears could very well be 2-0 coming into this game and playing with a great deal of confidence. I will be watching this situation closely as Week Three rolls around.

  
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