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Numbers on the move
August 5, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
L as Vegas Sports Consultants released the opening numbers for Week 1 of the college football season a few weeks ago. Over the last few days, most offshore books and Vegas betting shops have posted their lines, and quite a few of them differ from LVSC’s initial numbers.
When Florida opened as a 27-point home favorite versus Hawaii, my eyes lit up. I immediately pointed out that I felt the Gators should be at least 33-point favorites against the Warriors, who have only eight returning starters (4 offense, 4 defense) and lost their head coach, June Jones.
As of Tuesday morning, the number had moved into the 33-34 range. In fact, the Las Vegas Hilton had UF at 34 ½. One reason the number has moved is because of the shaky status of Hawaii fifth-year senior QB Tyler Graunke, who won’t participate in the team’s first week of practices.
“Tyler has things he has to work on,” new head coach Greg McMackin stated in a press release. “At this point, he will not practice with the team. Because of privacy laws, I can’t comment any further.”
In Thursday’s ESPN game, South Carolina will play host to N.C. St in an ACC-SEC showdown. LVSC sent the Gamecocks out as 13-point favorites, but the line is now at 11 or 11 ½.
LVSC opened Michigan as a seven-point home favorite for its season opener Saturday (8/30) versus Utah. That number has now been adjusted to four at most spots. Just like last year when Appalachian St. pulled the trick, the Wolverines could go down at the Big House in Week 1.
The Washington-Oregon number is also on the move. After LVSC sent the Ducks out as 10 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ we have seen this line move north of 14.
As for Saturday’s ESPN prime-time game, we saw Missouri open as a 7 ½-point favorite against Illinois in St. Louis. The Illini are now a nine-point underdog at most books.
Southern Cal will come to the East coast for its opener, taking on Virginia in Charlottesville. The Trojans opened as 17-point road ‘chalk,’ but most spots now have the Pac-10 favorites at 20.
For the Clemson-Alabama showdown at the Georgia Dome, LVSC opened the Tigers as five-point favorites. Although some books have Tommy Bowden’s squad at six, other shops are at five or 5 ½.
Kentucky has issues at the quarterback position. Curtis Pulley, who came out of spring practice as the starter, was recently dismissed from the team. The Wildcats, who opened as three-point underdogs for their Sunday afternoon opener at Louisville, are now catching 4-5 points depending on where you’re placing bets.
Due to UCLA’s injuries at the quarterback position, there was a delay in making a line for the Bruins’ opener vs. Tennessee. LVSC eventually opened the Vols as 5 ½-point favorites, but they are now 6 ½ at most books.
Rick Neuheisel’s new squad will take center stage against UT in the Monday prime-time matchup. Remember, the Vols got thumped 45-31 at California in last year’s opener against a Pac-10 squad.
Bettors also get a warm-up game on Monday, as Rutgers plays host to Fresno St at 4:00 p.m. ET. on ESPN. The Scarlet Knights are six-point favorites after opening as five-point ‘chalk.’ Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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