By Mike Merlet
American Sports Analysts Inc.
Editor's Note: Our friends at American Sports Analysts are our Big Ten gurus. Click to win with ASA right now!
ILLINOIS NOTES
Opening game: 8/30/08 – Illinois vs. Missouri (-8 1/2) @ St. Louis
--Illinois tied for second (with Michigan) in last year’s Big Ten race. However, they lose 24 lettermen which is more than any other Big Ten team. The Illini return 13 starters this year.
--In 2007, Illinois played host to Big Ten powers Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State. Their only road game against a team that finished in the top half of the conference was @ Ohio State, which they won. This year the road gets a bit tougher as the Illini now must travel to Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin.
--The biggest loss for the Illini will most likely be RB Rashard Mendenhall. He led the Big Ten in rushing yards and was drafted in the first round by the Steelers. His replacement will most likely be Daniel Dufrene who rushed for 294 yards as a backup in 2007.
--Illinois opens the season in St. Louis vs. Missouri for the second straight season. Last year the Tigers came out on top of a very closely contested game 40-34. The yardage was nearly equal with Illinois gaining 435 yards to 429 for Mizzou. The difference in the game? Illinois was minus 3 in the turnover battle. Illini starting QB Juice Williams left that game early in the second quarter and did not return after receiving a blow to the head.
INDIANA NOTES
Opening Game: 8/30/08 - Western Kentucky @ Indiana (-21)
--QB Kellen Lewis was reinstated to the team in July after being suspended four months ago for undisclosed reasons. IU head coach Bill Lynch said the suspension was not because of academic problems but has not elaborated. Lewis was second-team all Big Ten last year after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns. He also led the Hoosiers in rushing with just over 700 yards.
--Indiana will be running the no-huddle offense this fall which they hope will make Lewis an even larger offensive threat. Lewis is currently listed as the back up to Ben Chappell, however most believe he will move back into the starting spot soon.
--Last year IU made it to a bowl game (Insight Bowl) for the first time since 1993. They were dominated 49-33 by Oklahoma State and gave up 513 yards of total offense to the Cowboys.
--Despite making the college “post-season” this team was out gained by 70 yards per game in Big Ten action last year. Only Minnesota and Iowa were worse in that category.
--The Hoosiers return 13 starters in 2008. Their offensive line is a concern as three starters moved on. Leading receiver James Hardy (1,125 yards receiving last year) is gone. Both starting corners on defense moved onto the NFL.
IOWA NOTES
Opening Game: 8/30/08 – Maine @ Iowa (no line)
--After ripping off 31 wins from 2002 through 2004, the Iowa football program was vying for a consistent spot amongst the top tier Big Ten programs. Since that 31-7 mark from 2002 – 2004, this Iowa program has fallen off dramatically. The last three years the Hawkeye’s combined record is just 19-18.
--The Hawks have also “given back” some of their huge home field advantage as of late. This team was nearly unbeatable both SU (straight up) and ATS (against the spread) at Kinnick Stadium from 2001 through October of 2005. In fact, their SU record from the start of the 2001 season through October 15th, 2005 was a near perfect 28-2. Their spread record during that stretch wasn’t far behind at 24-4-1 (85%). Since that time Iowa is just 9-6 SU and 5-9 ATS at home.
--Iowa gets a break this year with the schedule. They play host to both Penn State and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes also avoid BOTH Michigan and Ohio State in 2008.
--The Hawks should be very solid along both fronts. Their offensive line returns in tact and they are all upper classmen. Their defensive line is also experienced and should be solid.
--While their lines will be good, Iowa’s skill players may take some time to develop. Especially at running back where they have zero experience. In fact, of the RB’s vying for the starting job this year, not ONE had a carry in 2007.
--We think Iowa can make a run toward the top of the conference this season. A lot of it has to do with their easy schedule. However, if they can find a RB to carry the load the rest of their offense should improve quite a bit on last year’s 17 PPG in conference play.
MICHIGAN NOTES
Opening Game: 8/30/08 – Utah @ Michigan (-3.5)
--The Wolverines have a tough opening game as they host Utah. This line opened with Michigan as a 7-point favorite and has dropped to just -3.5. The Utes have been one of the best “underdog” teams in the country covering an amazing 33 of their 42 games in that situation since 1993.
--Michigan doesn’t have many rebuilding years, however this is one of them. Not only did they lose key skill players in QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart and WR Mario Manningham, their offensive line also will be inexperienced. That, on top of the fact they are completely changing their offense under new coach Rich Rodriguez, means we might see the mighty Wolverines in the middle of the Big Ten pack (or lower) this year.
--One big problem that Michigan will have this year is that they do not have the type of QB needed to run Rodriguez’s new offense. He looks for an extremely athletic QB that can not only throw but run with equal efficiency. That won’t happen this year. Redshirt freshman Steven Threet, who transferred from Georgia Tech and Sophomore Nick Sheridan are the front runners so far in camp. Sheridan has seen very limited action in two games in his career while Threet has yet to play in a collegiate game.
--Starting RB Carlos Brown has not only been carrying the ball as a RB, he has also lined up at QB a few times during camp. Brown was a high school QB and Rodriguez wants to use him in a number of roles this year including RB, WR and QB.
--Rodriguez is definitely worried about his offensive line. After a recent practice he stated that, “they’ve been OK. Just OK.” He also was quoted as saying at times during practice they have made the coaches “really nervous”. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
MICHIGAN STATE NOTES
Opening Game: 8/30/08 – Michigan State @ California (-5.5)
--The Spartans should be one of the best running teams in the Big Ten and probably the country this year. They bring back Javon Ringer who had more yards on the ground than any other back returning in the Big Ten with the exception of Chris Wells at Ohio State. MSU’s offensive line is huge and they are all upper classmen.
--Michigan State was just 7-6 overall last year, however they were “this close” to having a very good season. Each of their six losses came by a TD or less. Those losses included a 3-point setback @ Wisconsin, a 7-point loss @ Ohio State and a 3-point loss to Boston College in the Champs Sports Bowl. If this team can learn how to close out games, they should improve on last year’s record.
--The Spartans do have a tough schedule this year playing @ Cal to open the season. Their three game Big Ten stretch in late October/early November when they host Ohio State, travel to Michigan and then host Wisconsin will go a long way to determining where they finish in the conference in 2008.
--Returning QB Brian Hoyer has looked great in practice thus far. Hoyer threw for 2,725 yards last year. He had 20 TD’s and 11 interceptions. Head coach Mark Dantonio has praised the senior signal caller saying that his quarterback play is, “as good as we’ve had.”
--In MSU’s first scrimmage last Sunday, the offense was definitely ahead of the defense. The Spartan QB’s combined to go 41 for 54 for 512 yards. The offense topped the defense 88-71 using an alternative scoring system that gives points for first downs, tackles for loss, etc…
