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Pac-10 Preview
 

The Conference of Champions has been dominated the past six season by Southern Cal. The Trojans have had a stranglehold on the Pac-10, winning or sharing the title since 2002 en route to two national championships. USC has appeared in four Rose Bowls and two Orange Bowls during the last six years, winning five of those games.

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Southern Cal has a 44-6 conference record the previous six years, and a 26-2 ledger versus non-conference teams. The Trojans haven’t played the Sisters of the Poor during that time, beating such tough road opponents as Arkansas, Auburn, Colorado, Nebraska and Virginia Tech. The two losses occurred against Kansas State back in 2002 and Texas in the national championship game at the end of the 2005 season.

Before anyone gets the notion that the Pac-10 has slowly become USC and the nine dwarfs, check out the Las Vegas Sports Consultants preseason top-30 college football rankings. The Trojans are the top-ranked team, while Oregon (16), California (21), Arizona (24), Arizona State (27) and Oregon State (30) are also on the list.

The ratings on that list translate into how LVSC comes up with its lines concerning upcoming games. USC has a power rating of 112.9, while Ohio State’s rating is 111.2. If these two teams met on a neutral field today, the Trojans would open as a 1 ½-point favorite over the Buckeyes.

These two powerhouse programs collide at the Los Angeles Coliseum September 13, so expect USC to open as a 4 ½ to five-point ‘chalk’ over the Buckeyes when factoring in home-field advantage. Oddsmakers usually assign three or four points to the home teams depending on how dominate that program is at home.

The Pac-10 season gets an early start on Thursday, August 28 when Oregon State travels to Stanford. LVSC opened the Beavers as a five-point road ‘chalk,’ but the line has since been bet down to three.

One of the Pac-10’s fiercest matchups not contested between state rivals is the Oregon-Washington contest in the Pacific Northwest. These two schools battle Saturday, August 30 in Eugene, with the Ducks currently listed as a 14-point home favorite.

Now let’s take a closer look at all the Pac-10 teams.

**Southern California Trojans**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 3/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 10.5

Southern Cal is one of college football’s marquee powers, reloading with NFL-type talent on a yearly basis. The Trojans have lost three Heisman Trophy winners the past six years, but continue to be a dominant force.

Quarterback John David Booty has graduated, and now it’s Mark Sanchez’s turn to lead the team. However, the senior went down with a dislocated left kneecap at the beginning of practice August 9. Sanchez will probably be ready to go for the August 30 opener at Virginia, but USC has Arkansas-transfer Mitch Mustain waiting if needed. Sanchez started three games for the Trojans last year, including the loss at Oregon, completing 69-of-114 passes for 695 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.

Sophomore Joe McKnight and junior Stafon Johnson lead a deep and talented running backs corps, but there are some questions about the offensive line. Center Chris O’Dowd returns after a successful freshman campaign, but USC will have to replace four starters. Left guard Jeff Byers, tackle Butch Lewis and guard Zack Heberer also saw some action last season.

The Trojans have the strongest linebacking corps in the country, led by Brian Cushing and Rey Maualuga who are both preseason All-Americans. The defensive backfield is spearheaded by hard-hitting free safety Taylor Mays. Last year’s squad ranked second nationally in total defense (273.2 yards per contest) and scoring defense (16.0).

It seems the only thing that will slow down USC this season is a case of ‘jock itch’ that has affected roughly 25 percent of the team due to new compression shorts. The outbreak was so bad that McKnight and wide receiver Travon Patterson have been unable to practice due to the severity of the irritation.

**Arizona State Sun Devils **
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 35/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 8.5

Arizona State exceeded expectations last year en route to a 10-3 season that resulted in a Pac-10 co-championship. The Sun Devils should jump out of the gates quickly once again compliments of another extremely favorable schedule before hitting a road block.

Arizona State starts the year with a four-game homestand, with the first three games occurring against Northern Arizona, Stanford and UNLV. However, things then turn considerably tougher with a four-game stretch against Georgia, at California and at Southern Cal before returning home versus Oregon.

Head coach Dennis Erickson is a proven winner, capturing two national championships when he was leading the Miami Hurricanes. Erickson has coached winning teams in the Fiesta, Orange and Sugar Bowl games, but the Rose Bowl is the only major bowl he has never coached in although there have been some near misses.

Arizona State will be led by senior signal caller Rudy Carpenter, who has started 31 consecutive contests and is the current Pac-10 leader in passing yards, completions and touchdowns. However, his numbers might take a hit this year behind an inexperienced offensive line. Only two starters return from last year’s line that surrendered an abysmal 55 quarterback sacks.

**California Golden Bears **
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 40/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 8

California catapulted to second last season in the polls, and was headed for the top spot for the first time in school history before dropping six of its last seven games. The Golden Bears have a tough out of conference schedule with home games against Michigan State and Colorado State along with a road trip to Maryland.

Cal will be bolstered by a solid offensive line led by center Alex Mack. The senior was a unanimous all-conference selection last season, anchoring a line that allowed just 11 sacks. That line will help veteran quarterbacks Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley along with running back Jahvid Best.

The defense returns seven starters from a unit that was a modest 58th in the country in total and scoring defense (378.5 yards, 26.8 points). Cal is switching to a 3-4 defensive format, hoping to take advantage of its linebacker strength. Zack Follett figures to prosper the most under the new scheme after recording 5.5 sacks last season as an outside linebacker.

**Oregon Ducks**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 60/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 8

Oregon was flying high last season in mid-November with a shot at the national championship game behind a Heisman Trophy hopeful in quarterback Dennis Dixon. The Ducks were coming off back-to-back victories over top-10 teams Southern Cal and Arizona State before Dixon went down with an injury. Oregon then proceeded to lose its last three regular season games before routing South Florida in the Sun Bowl, 56-21.

Head coach Mike Bellotti will have to find replacements for Dixon and running back Jonathan Stewart. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has done wonders with the spread offense, hoping that signal caller Nate Costa and running back LeGarrette Blount can continue Oregon’s high offensive standards.

The season begins against Pac-10 rival Washington before a non-conference schedule that includes home games against Utah State and Boise State along with a road trip to Purdue. A brutal mid-season stretch that has the Ducks traveling to Southern Cal, Arizona State and California will leave this team in the middle of the pack.

**UCLA Bruins **
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: Opened at 60/1, currently ‘off the board’
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: ‘Off the Board’

New head coach Rick Neuheisel has returned to his college alma mater, leading the Bruins to a 1984 Rose Bowl victory as quarterback. This marks his second Pac-10 head coaching job after leading the Washington Huskies from 1999-2002 that included a Rose Bowl victory in 2001. However, Neuheisel brings a lot of baggage to Westwood after leaving his previous two coaching stops (Colorado and Washington) in disarray.

UCLA has a pair of top-notch assistant coaches in offensive coordinator Norm Chow and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker. Chow once led the high-octane Southern Cal offense, and is widely considered one of the best offensive minds in the college game. Walker is also a highly sought after assistant who has turned around UCLA’s defense, and will continue to get some head coaching offers in the future.

The coaching situation is in place for the Bruins, but the talent level isn’t there quite yet despite playing in Los Angeles. UCLA will be hindered this year by a quarterbacking situation that has been devastated by injury. Redshirt junior Kevin Craft (a transfer from Mt. San Antonio Junior College) will get the starting nod for the opener after the Bruins lost Patrick Cowan to a knee injury and Ben Olson to a broken foot. The injury situation at quarterback is the reason that LVSC has taken UCLA’s future odds ‘off the board.’

There will be growing pains this season with a brutal early season schedule that has the Bruins hosting Tennessee before traveling to Brigham Young. Conference road games against Oregon, California and Arizona State are also difficult, along with the regular-season finale against rival USC.

**Arizona Wildcats**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 125/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 6.5

Head coach Mike Stoops is on the hot seat, and is trying to get Arizona to its first bowl game since 1998. Stoops is in his fifth year with the Wildcats, rebuilding a program that was decimated by the disastrous tenure of John Mackovic. The writing is on the wall down in Tucson, a bowl game or bust.

The good news is Arizona has an extremely favorable schedule to deal with, and should get out of the gates 3-0. A non-conference schedule includes home games against Idaho and Toledo, followed by a road contest versus New Mexico. That should give a defense that is returning just three starters’ time to mature for the conference slate.

Arizona’s strength is an offense returning 10 starters, highlighted by quarterback Willie Tuitama. The senior led the Pac-10 last season with 28 touchdown passes and was second in passing yards (3,683) in his first year with the spread offense. The Wildcats will be expected to win some shootouts and finally get over the hump to a bowl game.

**Oregon State Beavers**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 125/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 6.5

Oregon State has surprised experts to finish third in the Pac-10 the last two years en route to 19 total victories. The Beavers have a chance to take an early lead in conference play with a season-opening game at Stanford, but non-conference road games against Penn State and Utah will be tough tests.

The biggest obstacle for Oregon State returning to a bowl game is the play of both the offense and defensive lines. Left tackle Andy Levitre is the only experienced player, protecting a quarterbacking duo (Lyle Moevao and Sean Canfield) that led the conference in interceptions. There is also no major college experience at running back, putting even more pressure on the signal callers.

The entire front seven is inexperienced on the defensive side of the ball. There is talent, but they will need to grow up in a hurry. Also gone is kicker Alexis Serna who last year took care of all the kicking and punting duties.

**Washington Huskies**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 100/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 4.5

Head Coach Tyrone Willingham is on the hot seat in Seattle, and the schedule all but guarantees him a ticket out of town. Willingham has gone just 11-25 during his tenure with the Huskies, and faces a non-conference schedule against Brigham Young, Oklahoma and Notre Dame. That along with tough Pac-10 road clashes against Oregon, Southern Cal and California doesn’t make the outlook seem sunny in Seattle.

One of the few bright spots is duel-threat sophomore signal caller Jake Locker. The offensive line figures to be another team strength that is returning four starters. Locker should have plenty of time to find open holes, and to hit a speedy receiving corps.

The defensive line will have to grow up in a hurry, and there figures to be growing pains with this tough schedule. There is only one player with any significant experience on the defensive front, and the depth took a hit when a couple highly touted freshmen failed to qualify academically.

**Stanford Cardinal **
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 40/1 member of the ‘field’
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 4

Stanford shocked the college football world last year and derailed USC’s championship aspirations with a road victory as a 41-point underdog. The Cardinal face a brutal early season schedule that has four tough road games (Arizona State, Texas Christian, Washington and Notre Dame) the first six weeks of the season.

Jim Harbaugh begins his second season on The Farm, hoping his defense (nine starters returning) can improve greatly from last season. The defense allowed 435.5 yards per contest, but will have to step up for an offense that averaged a paltry 19.6 points per game. Quarterback Tavita Pritchard figures to get the nod after starting seven games last year that included that upset of the Trojans.

**Washington State Cougars**
Odds to win the 2009 National Championship Game: 125/1
‘Over/Under’ Season Win Total: 4

New Washington State head coach Paul Wulff is bringing his no-huddle offense to Pullman after a successful eight-year stint with Eastern Washington. The Cougars return six offensive starters, highlighted by wide receiver Brandon Gibson who led the conference last season with 1,180 yards.

There are nine defensive starters returning, but this unit as a whole was torched for a conference-high 32.4 points per game. A tough early season schedule against Oklahoma State and California is not an ideal way to break in a new system, but then Wazzu faces Baylor and Portland State in a pair of winnable matchups.

Brad Young can be reached at byoung@vegasinsider.com.

  
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