|
SEC Update
August 21, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
T he wait is almost over. We are just days away from the start of the college football season. With that in mind, let’s get you caught up on the most recent developments impacting the 10 board games involving SEC teams in Week 1.
South Carolina will take on N.C. St. in ESPN’s Thursday game at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Gamecocks opened as 13-point favorites, but that number has been adjusted into the 11-12 range at most books.
Tom O’Brien was expected to name a starting quarterback shortly after the Wolfpack’s final scrimmage on Tuesday (8/19). The former BC coach, who is in his second year in Raleigh, didn’t name a starter Wednesday, but O’Brien did eliminate one candidate.
Senior QB Daniel Evans, who has a mediocre 18/24 career touchdown-interception ratio, was in a three-way battle for the job with redshirt freshman Russell Wilson and true freshman Mike Glennon. But Glennon will now redshirt, so Evans and Wilson are left to compete for the job.
The winner won’t have the team’s best wide receiver to work with. Junior Donald Bowens, who had a team-high 41 receptions for 598 yards and three TDs last year, is gone for the season after suffering a stress fracture in his foot last week.
Steve Spurrier’s team has decided on its starting QB, junior Tommy Beecher, but he has indicated that Chris Smelley might also play. The offense will be looking to get the ball in the hands of Kenny McKinley, one of the nation’s premier wideouts. McKinley is coming off a junior campaign in which he hauled in 77 catches for 968 yards and nine TDs.
South Carolina senior RB Mike Davis has missed 12 days with a shoulder injury and has now come down with the flu. Bettors should check Davis’ status as kick-off gets closer.
Vanderbilt will also open its season on Thursday when it goes on the road to face Miami (OH.). Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the RedHawks as 1 ½-point favorites, but they are now 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ at most spots.
Vandy’s best returning wide receiver George Smith is not expected to play after breaking his foot in early August. The Commodores also lost three key players – LB Jonathan Goff, WR Earl Bennett and OT Chris Williams – to the NFL Draft.
Since 2004, Vandy is 13-4 against the spread in 17 games as a road underdog. Gamblers can back the ‘Dores at about plus 155 on the money line.
Florida is a 35-point favorite for its Aug. 30 opener against Hawaii, which brings back only eight total starters (4 offense, 4 defense) and lost head coach June Jones to SMU. The Gators opened as 27-point ‘chalk,’ but the public (and the “questionable” status of Hawaii senior QB Tyler Graunke due to disciplinary reasons) has forced oddsmakers to move the number into the mid-30s.
Regardless of what happens against the Warriors, the Gators have some obstacles to overcome after recently losing five players to season-ending injuries. Only two of the injured were starters, safety Dorian Monroe and TE Cornelius Ingram. Their absences have put a pair of young players – sophomore TE Aaron Hernandez and true freshman safety Will “Thrill” Hill – on the hot seat.
On the bright side for UF fans, both Hernandez and Hill were considered the country’s best at their respective positions coming out of high school.
Even more disconcerting than the ACL tears is the status of Percy Harvin’s heel. The junior playmaker is probably the nation’s most dynamic player when he’s healthy, but Harvin has not worked at full speed since practice started.
Meyer shut down Harvin early in spring drills in order for him to have surgery on a nagging Achilles injury that dates back to high school. At this point, Harvin looks “questionable” at best for UF’s lid-lifter at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.
Mississippi State is looking to build on last year’s breakout 8-5 campaign, but the Bulldogs know an opening-week loss at Louisiana Tech would wreck most of the positive vibes coming out of 2007.
The team’s best player, Derek Pegues, has been suspended for one game for reportedly missing classes. Nevertheless, Mississippi St. is a nine-point road ‘chalk’ for the 6:45 p.m. Eastern kick-off on ESPN2.
I’ve been saying the same thing about Alabama all summer long: If freshman WR Julio Jones is ‘as advertised,’ John Parker Wilson will have a stellar senior season and the Crimson Tide will be a serious contender in the SEC West.
Well, Nick Saban likes what he’s seen out of Jones so far.
’Bama will square off Saturday against Clemson in ABC’s prime-time matchup at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. Most betting shops have the Tigers favored by either five or 5 ½.
Ole Miss opened as a 10-point favorite for its opener against Memphis, but the number was between eight and nine on Thursday, nine days before kick-off. The line move can be directly pointed at the Rebels’ loss of DE Greg Hardy, who broke his foot earlier this month and isn’t expected to return until late September. Despite missing 2 ½ games due to suspension, Hardy led the SEC in sacks last year with 10.
Auburn is a 27-point ‘chalk’ against ULM, which won outright at Alabama in 2007. This game has ‘pass’ written all over it to me. More than anything, I just want to see if Kodi Burns’ passing accuracy has improved and if Chris Todd is the real deal.
Kentucky was a three-point underdog when LVSC sent out the number for its opener at Louisville. Since then, the Wildcats have dismissed QB Curtis Pulley, who was the favorite to take Andre Woodson’s place. As for the Cardinals, they have lost a slew of WRs to various injuries.
As of Thursday, the Cards were 4 ½-point favorites at most spots. These in-state rivals will meet Sunday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
On Monday, Tennessee will open the season on the west coast for the second straight year. After losing 45-31 at Cal in ’07, the Vols are seven-point ‘chalk’ at UCLA.
UT opened as a 5 ½-point favorite, but the Bruins have lost QB Ben Olson since then. Rick Neuheisel’s debut will come with juco-transfer Kevin Craft getting the starting nod under center.
Phillip Fulmer’s team got good news and bad news on Wednesday. The bad news was the loss of junior TE Brad Cottam for the next eight weeks. The good news came in the form of TE Brandon Warren being declared eligible by the NCAA after transferring from FSU.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Georgia’s opener against Georgia Southern is off the board, but it’s worth mentioning that fullback Brannan Southerland got some good news Wednesday. His fractured left foot is coming along and Southerland hopes to be ready for a crucial Sep. 20 game at Arizona St.
--Appalachian State is a non-board team, so there aren’t many places with a line posted for its opener at LSU. When I asked LVSC’s Chief Operating Officer Kenny White if there was any demand for the number, he told VI, “We gave Lucky’s the number at 20 ½, but they went with 15.” Personally, I think White and the LVSC gang were more accurate. I made the number 21.
--Urban Meyer has a 70-16 career record in his first seven seasons as a head coach (two years apiece at Bowling Green and Utah, three at UF). By my math, that’s an 81.4 winning percentage.
--True Story: On Wednesday (8/20), ESPN’s Mark May called Oklahoma’s head coach by the moniker “Big Game Bob Stoops.” Granted, Stoops did come up big in his second season at OU when he led the Sooners to a national title, but that was eight years ago. What has Stoopsy done for us lately? Oklahoma has lost four of its last five bowl games with three of those defeats coming when OU was at least a seven-point favorite. The Sooners lost to Boise St. two years ago prior to taking a 48-28 thumping from West Virginia last season.
--I haven’t given Mississippi St. junior RB Anthony Dixon much ink going into 2008, so let me address that right now. Dixon is a between-the-tackles bruiser who hasn’t had much room to work with in his first two seasons. Nevertheless, he has rushed for more than 1,700 yards and ran for 14 TDs in 2007. If the Bulldogs can develop a more competent aerial attack, the sky is the limit for the SEC’s most underrated RB.
--Let's exit with a few links, including my SEC preview, my blog page and the link to my college football season pack after finishing 2007 on a 19-8 (+1,030) run.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
|