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Cheat Sheet, K to M
August 26, 2008
By Scott Rickenbach VegasInsider.com
B eing thorough is a key to making money during the college football season. However, at the same time, many bettors have limited time to do all the necessary research.
Also, even the most “seasoned” bettors like to have a handy “quick reference guide” or “cheat sheet” available, allowing them to hone in on potential value spots throughout a season. That is the intent of this article.
This is my third installment of six and while this is not an all-inclusive listing of the teams from K to M, it is indeed a “value guide” for some of the squads in this range. Next up, I will take a look at teams from N to R and so on…
This 6-part series effectively breaks up the 120 teams into groups of roughly 20 each and while I certainly will not write about value for every single team, I will indeed indicate the teams for which there could be value going with or against them. I will note why I feel this way and, again, this is not intended to be an all-inclusive list, nor is it intended to be a detailed list. It’s a quick reference guide for early in the season to help you look for spots where, as an example, a “play on” team is matched up with a “go against” team.
That is the type of “value play” that you definitely want to be a part of! Now, let’s take a quick look at the K to M group!
Kent State – When looking for teams that might provide pointspread value early in the season, we like to focus on teams off of poor seasons that are poised to bounce back, and teams off of good seasons that are set for a fall. In this particular case, the Golden Flashes fall into the former group! They were just 3-9 last season but there is reason to believe that they will bounce back big this season. Keep in mind that the Flashes were 3-2 last season before losing their last seven games. However, keep in mind that the downfall for Kent last season occurred in large part due to QB Julian Edelman getting hurt. This has the entire team focused on bouncing back this season as Edelman is back as well as RB Eugene Jarvis (ran for nearly 1700 yards last season). The Flashes do have good QB depth this season and, overall, eight starters are back on offense. On defense, it’s nine starters returning for a unit that was one of the best in the MAC last season. As you can see, it is with good reason that the Golden Flashes should be on your radar screen for early pointspread value.
Louisiana Tech – This Bulldogs team is on the rise. After getting just three wins in 2006, they upped that total to five last year and another jump of two wins to seven in 2008 would not surprise us in the least. Head Coach Derek Dooley is now in his second season at Louisiana Tech and that is when a team can see it’s most marked improvement. Adding QB Taylor Bennett from Georgia Tech is a big help. This team has playmaking receivers and a solid ground attack. That means this offense could be tough to stop! The offense is ahead of the defense but don’t overlook this team when it comes to “value” spots on the schedule. They should stay ahead of the “ATS” game early on!
Memphis – A lot of people knew, or found out about, the Tigers passing attack last season. However, what we really watched for (and we’re happy with) was the signs of future progression for this defense. With defensive coordinator Tim Walton on board, look for a defense returning nine starters to take some big steps this season. Offensively, the Tigers have a very experienced offensive line and they also have some of the best receivers in CUSA. Even though the QB spot was one in which a battle ensued, whomever is under center will end up being happy with this solid offensive line and talented group of receivers. Couple the continued offensive success with improved defensive play and this team should be making some more noise in 2008.
Michigan – The Wolverines had a tumultuous season last year and, after defeating Florida in the Capital One Bowl, they parted ways with coach Lloyd Carr. While his replacement Rich Rodriguez will eventually enjoy success here, it’s not likely to come easy nor is it likely to come early! This looks like a “transition year” for Michigan. Coach Rodriguez takes over a team that returns just two starters on offense and only four starters on defense. Sure the “talent pool” tends to run deep at Michigan but playing in the Big Ten Conference means rebuilding is never easy. Not only do the Wolverines have a lot of personnel issues, they also have to get use to the new schemes as a result of the coaching changes. This will likely still be a good defense but Michigan is likely to struggle early on both sides of the ball. We’ll look for spots to fade them and this will be especially true early in the season.
Mississippi – The Rebels went 3-9 last season including 0-8 in the conference but keep an eye on this team in 2008. Look for the coaching change from Ed Orgeron to Houston Nutt to pay immediate dividends for a team that needed to “shake things up”. Ole Miss has a very solid offensive line and also a talented group of wideouts. With QB Jevan Snead transferring in from Texas, this gave an injection of energy to the signal-caller position. The Rebels also are very strong on the defensive line and remember what we said about the offensive line above! As you can see, Ole Miss should be strong in the trenches and that is something that is very important, and yet, often overlooked. The secondary and linebacking units are not near as strong as the defensive line but because the Rebels had such a poor record last season, it will take awhile for the odds makers and public money to adjust to this Mississippi team. That means value for us as we look to “pick our spots” with backing the Rebels.
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