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SMU at Rice
August 29, 2008
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards finished the 2007 college football season with a 70-60 record (54%), closing strong with a 19-8 run that netted "dime players" $10,300 of profit. Edwards started the '08 campaign with an easy winner on South Carolina last night. Click to win again with Brian tonight!
B ack in the early 1980s during the Pony Express days of Craig James and Eric Dickerson, SMU had a big-time football program. The death penalty brought that to an end, however, and the Mustangs haven’t gone bowling since 1984.
After finishing 1-11 last season, SMU’s boosters (a group dubbed “The Circle of Champions”) decided it was time to go out and spend big money to lure a proven coach. The school’s search lasted 71 days and reportedly included overtures to Paul Johnson, Rick Neuheisel, Mike Martz and Dennis Franchione.
Finally, the Mustangs landed June Jones after he led Hawaii to an unbeaten regular season and a trip to the Sugar Bowl. They made Jones the highest-paid coach in Conference USA, inking him to a long-term deal worth nearly $2 million per year.
Will this move bring SMU back to prominence? If Jones’ tenure at Hawaii is any indicator, the answer is an emphatic “yes.” The offensive guru who had head-coaching stints with both the Chargers and Falcons is a proven winner.
When Jones took over the Warriors, they had lost 18 consecutive games. In his first season, Hawaii went 9-4 in the best turnaround in NCAA history.
SMU is hoping for a similar turn in fortune when it opens the 2008 campaign Friday night at Rice. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Owls as 4 ½-point favorites and sent the total out at 70. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Rice as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 70.
Gamblers can back the Mustangs on the money line for a plus 150 return (risk $100 to win $150).
Rice (3-9 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) took a step back in David Bailiff’s first season at the helm. The Owls went to a bowl game for the first time in 45 years in 2006, but Todd Graham parlayed that success into a job offer from Tulsa.
Rice, which returns nine starters on offense and seven on defense, has C-USA’s premier signal caller in senior quarterback Chase Clement. He has 5,666 career passing yards and is poised to become the school’s all-time leading passer by mid-season. Assuming he stays healthy, Clement will break Tommy Kramer’s career passing mark. (Kramer was Fran Tarkenton’s heir apparent with the Vikings back in the early ‘80s.)
Clement, who has a 55/27 career touchdown-interception ratio, will be looking to get the ball into the hands of stud WR Jarett Dillard. The Biletnikoff Award candidate was a second-team All-American in 2006. Dillard hauled in 79 receptions for 1,057 yards and 14 TDs last season.
Even though Rice only won three times in 2007, the team wasn’t lacking in the points department at all. In fact, the offense produced 31 points or more in seven of the squad’s last eight games.
As for SMU’s offense, it will have a new leader calling the signals. Junior QB Justin Willis, who has 51 TD passes in 22 career starts, has been in Jones’ doghouse since the spring. It is unclear whether or not Willis will dress out Friday, but he’s the third-string QB at best. True freshman QB Bo Levi Mitchell will get the starting nod, while redshirt freshman Logan Turner has been named the back-up.
Although SMU limped to a 4-8 spread record last year, it did excel as a road underdog with a 4-2 ATS mark in those situations. Rice has only been favored 10 times since 2004, posting a 3-7 ATS record in those spots.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Rice has won nine in a row over SMU at home.
--SMU owns an atrocious 54-147-3 record since returning from the death penalty in 1989.
--SMU lost five games by seven points or less last year, including three defeats in overtime.
--Meaningless/Irrelevant factoid that I found surprising: ESPN’s Game Day crew hasn’t been to Athens since 1998. That probably changes this year.
--ESPN’s Mark May has the same two teams that I do in the national-title game, Florida and USC. Yikes! On the bright side, we have different winners, as I like the Gators to win their second “natty” in three seasons.
--One of the bolder college football predictions at the VI Seminar came from Bryan Leonard, who thinks South Florida will go unbeaten and play for the national championship. Leonard also feels LSU is overrated, while Kentucky is underrated.
--More quick-hit seminar tidbits: 1-Marc Lawrence and James Manos both think California is overrated, while Marshall is underrated.
2-Manos, a Clemson alum, thinks the Tigers are getting too much hype. According to Manos, they won’t avoid their annual hiccup and could go down to both Alabama and Wake Forest early.
3-The entire college panel felt that Ole Miss was underrated.
4-Keith Fredrick thinks West Virginia is overrated and questioned the hiring of Bill Stewart.
5-Dave Cokin thinks Duke will be a solid ATS team in David Cutcliffe’s first season. Cokin, who is also high on East Carolina, thinks Colorado St. is “going to be one of the worst teams in Division-I.”
6-The Gold Sheet’s Bruce Marshall thinks Syracuse is the nation’s best fade team.
--For more Week 1 Nuggets, check out my blog page and feel free to add that page to your favorites.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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