Editor's Note: Judd Hall makes his debut as a college football handicapper on VegasInsider.com this season. Be sure to pick up his expert selections. Click to win!
It’s been a while, but the college football season is finally here. More importantly it’s your chance to show everyone just how great a handicapper you are by signing up for VegasInsider.com’s College Football Handicapping Challenge. Once you’ve signed up, you’ll be eligible for weekly prizes, but you can win a grand prize by being the overall leader at the end of the season on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2008. The best part of this is you can get in on the action for FREE!!!
For those of you that are new to the game, it plays out in much the same fashion as our Pro Football Handicapping Challenge: you select five games out of 20 Saturday matches. I know some of you will be wondering about those crossover tilts of schools from the Football Championship Subdivision. And no, they won’t be on the list. As fun as it was to see Appalachian State win at Michigan, it didn’t appear on most sportsbook’s boards.
There will be more than one occasion that contestants are tied for the week. That’s why you’ll also be putting in a combined score for the final game on the board to serve as a tiebreaker. The player that comes closest to that total (Price is Right rules don’t apply) will be declared the winner for that week. Yes, it’s just that simple!
To make sure that everyone feels better about themselves and their picks, I’ll be making my challenge picks public. I am proud to say that I have improved in my handicapping. In 2006, I would have had better lucky throwing darts after winning on 44.6 percents of my picks. Last year, I was 29th in the contest overall by correctly picking the winner in 56.9 percent of my selections…which would have ranked me fifth amongst our expert handicappers in terms of percentage.
Now, I’m expecting some participation from everyone out there. So if you have a question about any games or think I suck at life, send me an e-mail here. Be sure to include your name, city and state in the message. I’ll be sure to post the answers for you starting next week.
Alright, that’s enough stalling. Here are my picks and analysis for Week 1 of the College Handicapping Challenge.
1) Southern California (-19 ½) at Virginia
It’s never easy taking a team that is listed as a huge favorite, let alone one that’s on the road. Yet I’m going to roll the dice with the Trojans. Southern Cal has a group of stoppers that was second in the nation last year in total defense, allowing 273.2 yards per game. USC’s offense might be a little shaky at the start with four starters returning and starting quarterback Mark Sanchez playing after injury his knee just three weeks earlier.
Luckily, the Trojans are taking on a Virginia squad that will be almost totally rebuilt. Gone is the defensive star Chris Long, as is Jameel Sewell under center (at least until he learns how to improve his grades). Although the Cavs might not miss Sewell as much as we thought when they ranked ninth in their own conference in total offense.
Expect a nice blowout for the Men of Troy in preparation of the game with Ohio State.
Final Score: Southern Cal 38, Virginia 13
2) Texas Christian (- 6 ½) at New Mexico
The Utes and Cougars get all of the love as possible BCS crashers, but nobody gives TCU any attention. There’s only one way to get back into the spotlight and that is to win games. The Horned Frogs are bringing back Andy Dalton to start at quarterback for his sophomore season. Meanwhile, Aaron Brown can be the next great runner out of TCU if he can just stay healthy.
Brown’s health shouldn’t be a factor this weekend against the Lobos. They return just five starters from a defense that gave up 122.54 rushing yards per game. Besides, the Horned Frogs blanked New Mexico 37-0 last season. That shutout brings TCU’s average score against the Lobos to 38-16 in three Mountain West Conference matches.
Final Score: Texas Christian 33, New Mexico 15
3) Mississippi (-7 ½) versus Memphis
You wouldn’t normally look at taking a team that is bringing in a brand new head coach and staff, but it’s hard not to back Houston Nutt and Ole Miss this Saturday.
Jevan Sneed takes over as the clear No. 1 signal caller after sitting out the one year required when he transferred from Texas. He’s a dual threat player and should have no problems making plays happen if the pocket collapses. That will be a Godsend considering the Tigers are bringing back eight defensive starters.
Nutt has responded well in these spots in home season openers, going 9-1 straight up. I see the Rebels getting off to a solid start here against Memphis.
Final Score: Mississippi 26, Memphis 16
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| Javon Ringer looks to run over California's defense. (VI Images) |
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4) Michigan State (+4 ½) at California
California has owned everyone that comes to Berkley to open the season, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS under Jeff Tedford’s tenure. They even return nine defensive starters, but that’s not a good thing. The Golden Bears were sixth in the Pac-10 in total defense (378.5 YPG) and are eighth in stopping the run (164.23 YPG).
That spells success for Michigan State with Javon Ringer in the backfield. The diminutive Senior rusher headlines a ground attack that racked up 198.2 YPG last season. Take into account that gunslinger Kevin Riley will start at the top of the depth chart for Tedford’s offense over Nate Longshore. I see this move backfiring here as Mark Dantonio is very proficient in changing looks of his defenses to make quarterbacks screw up.
Let’s call out for the upset.
Final Score: Michigan State 27, California 24
5) Missouri (-8 ½) versus Illinois
Out of all the Top 25 previews I did in preparation for the season, I received the most heated e-mails from the Illinois faithful.
Well, I’m not about to make any more friends with this pick either. The Tigers have one of the most potent offenses in the nation, averaging 39.9 points per game a year ago. All purpose stud Jeremy will be a handful for the Fighting Illini, who are thin in the linebacker and secondary positions.
Juice Williams will have to keep on his toes to run away from the Mizzou defense, but that could be a good thing when it comes to third down. The Tigers were awful at forcing teams to punt after third down last season, allowing opponents to convert 42 percent of the time.
Still, Gary Pinkel is 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in season openers for the Tigers. Expect those numbers to improve.
Final Score: Missouri 30, Illinois 13
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
