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Games to Watch - Week 13
November 22, 2008
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 13
| Saturday - Michigan State at Penn State (ABC, 3:30 p.m.) |
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Penn State (10-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) blew its chances of earning a likely spot in the BCS championship game after losing to Iowa (24-23) on Nov. 8 but the school can win the Big Ten with a victory against Michigan State (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) on Saturday. A win for the Nittany Lions would help the school make a return trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1994. If the Spartans win, then Ohio State would capture the conference if its beat Michigan at home. Otherwise, Mark Dantonio and MSU would be heading to Pasadena. Michigan State has fared well on the road this year, going 3-1 both SU and ATS with the lone loss coming on Aug. 30 at California (38-31). The Spartans will pin their hopes on running back Javon Ringer (1,548 yards, 20 TDs) but he could have trouble against a PSU defense that his holding opponents to 101.5 YPG on the ground. QB Daryll Clark and the Nittany Lions' offense are averaging 45.4 PPG but lately it's been stagnant. Last week, the unit was held to 10 points to Indiana in the first half before adding 24 in the final 30 minutes for a 34-7 victory. Michigan State rallied past Penn State 35-31 last year as a 2 ½-point home underdog. The Spartans outscored the Lions 28-7 after trailing 24-7 midway through the third quarter. PSU started the year 7-1 ATS but has failed to cover its last two games. Oddsmakers tabbed the Lions as 14 ½-point home favorites for this matchup, while the total is hovering at 48. The 'over' has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings. | |
| Saturday - BYU at Utah (The Mtn, 6:00 p.m.) |
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The "Holy War" between Utah (11-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) and BYU (10-1 SU, 3-7 ATS) is always considered a must-see game in the Beehive State but this matchup has conference championship implications and a possible BCS berth as well. If the unbeaten Utes defeat the Cougars at Salt Lake City on Saturday, then the school would capture the Mountain West and a likely BCS at-large berth. BYU can earn a share of the MWC crown with a victory, which would be the third straight year that the team wins a portion of the conference. This year's matchup will pit BYU's explosive offense (447 YPG, 36 PPG) against Utah's stellar defense (284 YPG, 16.6 PPG). Ten of the last 11 meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less and most would expect another barnburner. The game could come down to quarterback play and both BYU's Max Hall (71.5%, 34 TDs) and Utah's Brian Johnson (20 TDs) are legit. The Cougars have burned gamblers this year with a 3-7 ATS ledger, while Utah has padded bankrolls with a 6-4 mark against the number. BYU has won the past two meetings against Utah, including a 17-10 win last season in Provo. The combined 27 points fell 'under' the total of 48, snapping a three-game 'over' run in the series. The last two games played in Salt Lake saw some fireworks with a combined 64 and 73 points posted on the scoreboard. Utah has been tabbed a six-point 'chalk', and the total is listed at 53 ½. | |
| Saturday - Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.) |
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It's obvious that the Big East is down this year but gamblers better keep an eye on this Cincinnati (8-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) team. Head coach Brian Kelly and the Bearcats have quietly ripped off three straight wins and have put themselves in a position to win the Big East and a BCS berth on Saturday with a victory versus Pittsburgh (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS). The Panthers would certainly get the inside track on the conference and BCS berth if it wins on the road, but would still need victories against WVU and UConn to close the year. Something will have to give at Nippert Stadium in this year's battle, with Cincy owning a 4-0 record at home and Pitt remaining undefeated (4-0) on the road. The Panthers have won all seven meetings against the Bearcats, including three (3-0 ATS) since Cincy joined the Big East. Cincy had a shot to end the drought against Pitt last year but the team was outscored 11-0 in the fourth quarter en route to a 24-17 road setback. LeSean McCoy (137 yards) led a Pitt ground game that ripped up 260 yards against Cincy. McCoy and Pitt will enter this game rested but they still have to face a stout Bearcats' defense that has given up 112 YPG on the ground. The Panthers are 2-0 both SU and ATS as road underdogs this year, earning outright wins over South Florida (26-21) and Notre Dame (36-33). Pittsburgh has been listed as a six-point road puppy in this battle. | |
| Saturday - Texas Tech at Oklahoma (ABC, 8:00 p.m.) |
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The Big 12 took a one-week hiatus last weekend but returns this Saturday with a huge showdown in Norman between Texas Tech (10-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) and Oklahoma (9-1 SU, 7-2 ATS). The Red Raiders are two wins away from winning the Big 12 South and a chance to play in the conference title game. The problem for T-Tech will be going to Norman, where Oklahoma has won 23 straight contests including five this season by double digits. The books are expecting a shootout for this primetime tilt and deservingly so too, listing the 'over/under' at 77 points. Oklahoma (51.4 PPG) and Texas Tech (47.9 PPG) are ranked first and third nationally in scoring offense, plus each unit has had two weeks to tweak any inadequacies in their attacks for Saturday. The Big 12 isn't known for its defense this year, largely due to the high-profile attacks in the conference. If there is one unpredictable factor in football, it's turnovers and that's where Oklahoma has the edge. Bob Stoops and company own a plus-16 turnover ratio, which is the best margin in the country. The home team has won four straight in this series, including Texas Tech's 34-27 victory in Lubbock last season. The dangerous duo of QB Graham Harrell and WR Michael Crabtree helped the Red Raiders build a 27-10 halftime lead and hold on for the victory. What should be noted is that Sooners lost starting QB Sam Bradford in the first quarter to a concussion. Bradford has been nothing short of brilliant this year, tossing for 3,046 yards and 38 TDs while completing 68% of his passes. Those numbers are sick, but still a little short of Harrell (4,077 yards, 71.7%, 36 TDs). The Sooners have been listed as seven-point favorites on Saturday. The Red Raiders have been listed as underdogs once this season, upsetting then top-ranked Texas 39-33 on Oct. 1 as 3 ½-point pups. | |
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
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