Scoring in the USA
July 30, 2009 By Kevin Rogers VegasInsider.com
The first word that comes to bettors' minds when they think of Conference USA is offense, and plenty of it. Three teams (Tulsa, Houston, and Rice) averaged well over 44 ppg last season. On the flip side, seven schools allowed at least 30 ppg. The games within this conference will never disappoint from an entertainment standpoint, but may be frustrating with the shootout mentality.
Half the conference advanced to bowl games, compiling an impressive 4-2 record. East Carolina made early headlines last season by knocking off Virginia Tech and West Virginia the first two weeks of the season. The last three conference title games have seen five different teams, with Tulsa being the only team to play twice for the C-USA championship in this span.
Amazingly, C-USA is the only major conference that did not see a coaching change this past offseason, but seven head coaches have been at their present school for two years or less.
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Only three teams were profitable from an ATS standpoint last season, as Rice (9-4 ATS), Tulsa (8-5 ATS) and Southern Miss (8-5 ATS) made bettors money. The biggest money-burner in the conference was ECU, covering only five of 14 games. The Pirates went 0-5 ATS last season as road favorites, with their biggest margin of victory in those contests being four points. The best team to 'fade' over the years is Tulane, who has covered just 41% of their games since 2003 (27-38-1 ATS).
The 'over' seems like the easy play among C-USA teams, however, only five teams inside the league hit more 'overs' than 'unders' last season (Rice, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP). Interestingly, two of the three worst defenses in the league in '08, SMU and Tulane, combined for 15 'unders' in 23 games.
Two of those high-powered teams will have to move forward without their quarterbacks this season. Tulsa loses David Johnson's 4,059 yards, while Rice is without Chase Clement and his 44 touchdown tosses from last season. The best quarterback as far as yardage goes returns, with Houston's Case Keenum (5,020 yds, 44 TD, 11 INT) coming back for his junior season.
Houston returns not only Keenum, but also RB Bryce Beall (1,247 yards, 13 TD) and top WR Tyron Carrier (80 rec, 1,026 yds, 9 TD). Kevin Sumlin's team expects to play two high-scoring contests against Big 12 opponents in September, travelling to Oklahoma State, then hosting Texas Tech. The Cougars dropped 40 points or more on seven occasions last season, but allowed at least 30 points or more in seven games.
Todd Graham's high-powered Tulsa offense will have some new faces this season. The Golden Hurricane, off an 11-3 campaign and a GMAC bowl victory, replace the aforementioned Johnson, leading rusher Tarrion Adams (1,548 yds, 14 TD) and leading receiver Brennan Marion (1,112 yds, 8 TD). Graham's defense returns eight starters, a unit which ranked 6th in the conference in points allowed.
The panel at VI has plenty of differing opinions on this wide-open conference. Last year's conference champ, East Carolina, was chosen to repeat by Judd Hall and Brian Edwards. Despite ECU's struggles ATS last season, Hall feels the Pirates have plenty of weapons to win C-USA again. "I don't expect results like we saw in '08 to happen again this season with Patrick Pinkney running an offense that returns eight starters," Hall said. "Plus, you have a defense bringing back most of a secondary that ranked third in C-USA last season."
East Carolina looks to repeat as C-USA champs behind head coach Skip Holtz. (Getty Images)
Edwards has plenty of faith in Pirates head coach Skip Holtz. "Once again, Holtz has scheduled nothing but heavyweights in non-conference play. ECU will play at West Virginia and at North Carolina in Weeks 2 and 3. After an open date, the Pirates will go to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on a Thursday night in which the Hokies will have revenge in mind after ECU stunned Frank Beamer's team in Charlotte last season," says Edwards.
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles were picked by Chris David to win the conference this season. David feels the Golden Eagles built up some nice momentum last season, "After losing five straight games midway through the season Southern Miss closed with five consecutive victories. Looking back at the losses, four came by seven or less and the other was a 24-7 loss to Boise State." USM finishes the season with road tests at Houston, Marshall, and East Carolina. David adds, "Closing the year with three of four on the road is tough, but if Fedora can win a couple of these tight contests then look out for the Eagles."
It's tough to fall down any further following a 1-11 season, but I'll take SMU to be the sleeper of this conference. June Jones' Mustangs draw East Carolina, Rice, and UTEP at home this season, while QB Bo Levi Mitchell looks to improve from last season. The Mustangs also lost four games by less than a touchdown inside C-USA play. Edwards has plenty of confidence in Jones' program, "SMU will bounce back from a 1-11 season and go to a bowl game during the second year of June Jones' tenure in Dallas. The Mustangs nearly pulled upsets as double-digit underdogs against bowl-bound Tulsa and Houston last year."
Two 4-8 teams from a season ago are seen to be sleepers by our panel. David selected the Marshall Thundering Herd, while Hall tabbed the Knights of UCF to be the surprise teams of the conference. David feels that despite the poor record from a season ago, Marshall's defense will shine, "The Herd only gave up 27.7 PPG, which was fifth best in the conference. That number should improve with eight starters back, including all-conference DT Albert McClellan."
Despite UCF's struggles to score points last season, Hall is high on the Knights making plays this season. "There wasn't a worse offensive team than the Knights last year, ranking 119th in the nation with 229.5 yards per game in total offense. That will not happen this season with brand new offensive coordinator Charlie Taffe installing a spread attack for a veteran group of wide receivers." Hall also notes an interesting stat regarding head coach George O'Leary, who is 16-11 ATS in odd-numbered years, and just 12-20-1 ATS in even-numbered years in Orlando.
Both Hall and Edwards were not high on the team from the Crescent City. The Tulane Green Wave has been perennial losers in this conference, and there's no reason to think things will change says Hall. "Tulane finished 2008 with a 2-7 ATS run. That shouldn't surprise anyone as they're 16-29 ATS record since 2005. I don't see that trend to stop with an offense that is starting a brand new QB and wide receivers."
The key losses offensively at Rice and Tulsa make them fade material to David and myself, respectively. Graham has turned things around with the Golden Hurricane, but losing the starting quarterback, running back, and wide receiver will take some adjusting. The same story applies with the Owls, as David points to Rice's key losses. "The success was directly attributed to the offense, led by the trio of QB Chase Clement, WR Jarrett Dillard and TE James Casey. Unfortunately for Rice, that trio is gone and will be next to impossible to replace." Rice's schedule does not benefit them at all, David says. "The schedule is a nightmare, which include a pair of conference road trips to ECU and Houston. After winning 10 games last season, Rice might be lucky to get half that mark in 2009."
Below is a complete breakdown of our predictions for Conference USA.
