Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's college football picks can be purchased at VegasInsider.com this season in his early-bird package. Click to win!
For the most part, new coaches are brought into college football programs that are in need of a transfusion. Much like a body that undergoes alterations during a lifestyle change of diet and exercise, it also takes a while before first year coaches turn a program around. In fact, all teams with 1st year head coaches are 1307-1445-45, or 47.4% ATS, since 1990.
The groundwork is laid in the first year, when new coaches install new playbooks and game plans. Consequently, these teams really struggle out of the gate. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1990:
• 1st Year College Football Head Coaches in Game One are a 42.2% pointspread proposition, going 82-1112-6 ATS.
(2) NEW HEAD COACHES WITH LOUSY TEAMS ARE LOUSY IN SEASON OPENERS
A lousy team is often defined as winning four or fewer games the previous year. We agree with that statement because:
• Four win (or less) teams, with a new 1st year head coach, are 34-59-5 ATS in their initial game scheduled. No less than fourteen teams open the season in this role, eleven this week. They include: Army, Eastern Michigan, Miami Ohio, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Purdue, San Diego State, Syracuse, Toledo, Utah State and Washington this week, along with Iowa State, Mississippi State and Wyoming next week.
(3) NEW HEAD COACHES WITH LOUSY TEAMS VS. GOOD TEAMS SPELL DISASTER
Pair a ‘new coach / lousy team’ against a ‘good team’ (one who won six or more games last year) in season openers and you have the makings of a massacre, as these pairings find ‘new coach / lousy team’ combinations at 5-49 SU and 13-36-2 ATS. There are six such pairings to open the 2009 season (the ‘new coach/lousy team’ listed first):
9/3 – Utah State vs. Utah.
9/5 – Miami Ohio vs. Kentucky, Syracuse vs. Minnesota and Washington vs. LSU.
9/12 – Iowa State vs. Iowa and Wyoming vs. Texas.
Forewarned is forearmed!
