System points to 'Zona
September 24, 2009
By Marc Lawrence
FOUR ON THE FLOOR
Our powerful database tells us that Game Four is a critical turning point for most College Football teams, especially if they’re playing off their first loss of the season. From a handicapping perspective, the venue goes a long way in determining Game Four ATS results as well. Check out the situations of teams in Game Four, off their initial loss of the season, since 1980...
Teams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 74-95-1 ATS overall mark. Home teams in that role this week include: Boston College, BYU, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State, USC and Utah. Bring their opponent in off an ATS Loss and they slip even worse, going 25-40 ATS.
The Beavers and Cornhuskers qualify here. To top it off, put them up against a team with a win percentage of greater than .500 and they drop to 7-23 ATS (Nebraska and Oregon State), including 3-17 ATS in conference games. Oregon State will find out what it’s like to be in this role when they host Arizona this week.
Teams playing AWAY in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 90-69-1 ATS. This week finds Arizona, Louisiana Lafayette, Minnesota and Texas Tech taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. When these teams are also off an ATS loss they improve to 80-50-1 ATS in these ‘Game Four On The Floor’ situations. And if the opponent is off a loss they ratchet up to 34-17 ATS.
That would put Arizona and Louisiana Lafayette in this desirable role. And if they are facing a conference foe that is of a SU and ATS loss they become 14-3 ATS material. Arizona will go through all four speeds this week – both ‘on and against’ Oregon State.
There you have it... a critical Game Four theory that will likely ‘floor’ a team or two this week!
20-5 Streak, 71% +2,769 Overall
17-5 Run, 7-1 Totals, 63% +2,505
4-0 G-Plays, 14-4 Picks, +1,748 TY
9-3 L12, 23-9 Run, 13-2 G-Plays
4-0 L4, 18-8 Picks, 16-5 Totals
9-2 L11 Picks, 61% +1,345 TY
31-14 L45 G-Plays, 3-1 L4 Totals
19-8 Picks, 4-1 G-Plays, 12-5 Totals
12-5 G-Plays, 36-21 Run, +1,442
9-4 L13 G-Plays, 22-12 L34 Picks
4-1 L5 Picks, 15-7 G-Plays, +1,497
5-0 G-Plays, 4-1 Totals, 9-4 Picks
4-1 Picks, 9-3 G-Plays, +1,093 TY
10-3 This Month, 22-10 L32 G-Plays
30-15 Record L11 Saturdays
6-1 L7 College Guarantees
7-2 L9 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Picks
13-6 L19 G-Plays, 4-2 L6 Selections
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