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Middle Tennessee at Troy
October 6, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards destroyed the books in Week 5 of the college football season, posting an 8-2 record (+764!) with money-line winners on Auburn (+120) and Miami (+260). Brian is No. 2 on VI in guaranteed picks (11-5, 69%, +539) and has this pay-if-it-wins-only selection for tonight!
W ith the MLB Playoffs on Wednesday and the regular Week 6 college game slated for Thursday, bettors only get one day off this week, right? Wrong.
Gamblers get a chance to get ahead of the man early when Troy and Middle Tennessee collide in a crucial Sun Belt showdown Tuesday night on ESPN2. Kick-off is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Troy (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point home favorite. As of early this morning, most sports books had the Trojans favored by seven. Our friends at Sportsbook.com have the Blue Raiders at plus-230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230). The total is 56 at most spots.
Both teams were off this past weekend. After losing both SU and ATS at Bowling Green (31-14) and at Florida (56-6), Larry Blakeney’s team has won back-to-back contests. Troy got its first win of the season in the home opener, beating UAB by a 27-14 count as a 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’
In Week 4, the Trojans went to Arkansas St. and emerged with a 30-27 victory as two-point road underdogs. I took Troy on the money line in that spot for a plus-115 return (risk $100 to win $115).
Levi Brown threw for 355 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted. He connected on 33-of-46 passes. The Trojans out-yarded the Red Wolves 507-305 and had a 29-13 first-down advantage. One week later, Arkansas St. easily covered the spread in a 24-21 loss at unbeaten Iowa as a 21 ½-point road underdog.
Troy first burst on the scene in 2004 with a 24-14 home win over then-19th-ranked Missouri as an 11 ½-point home underdog. Later that season, the Trojans nearly upset LSU in Baton Rouge before dropping a 24-20 decision. Nevertheless, Troy backers cashed tickets catching 24 points.
In 2006 and 2007, Troy garnered more national recognition with a quarterback named Omar Haugabook and Tony Franklin as its offensive coordinator. The Trojans led Florida St. 17-10 midway through the fourth quarter at Doak Campbell Stadium before eventually losing by a 24-17 count.
They covered as 29 ½-point puppies against the Seminoles and a week later, they took the cash in a competitive loss at Ga. Tech. Then in the New Orleans Bowl, Troy destroyed Rice 41-17 as a five-point underdog, hooking up its backers like me with a plus-180 payout.
When Middle Tennessee comes to Troy tonight, it will have Franklin calling the plays. He left the Trojans after the 2007 campaign to take the same job at Auburn. But his situation at Auburn unraveled quickly and Tommy Tuberville canned Franklin seven weeks into the season.
Franklin landed in Murfreesboro, free to have a beer at a restaurant during dinner without having to worry about that fact making it to the chat boards and discussion groups of an SEC school. And Franklin couldn’t be happier.
He’s led the Blue Raiders to 31 points in each of their last three games, all wins. MTSU opened the season by losing 37-14 at Clemson as a 19-point underdog. Since then, Rick Stockstill’s squad has won vs. Memphis (31-14), at Maryland (32-31) and at North Texas (37-21).
The Blue Raiders have taken the cash in all three of those outright victories.
Troy has lost three of its top cornerbacks to academics, including senior Jorrick Calvin and junior DeMarcus Robertson, both whom were expected to be starters. Also, CB KeJuan Phillips was lost to grades and will be redshirted.
Middle Tennessee had its leading receiver from 2008 suspended for the year. Eldred King, who had a team-high 51 receptions last year, is out this year due to disciplinary issues. Senior RB Phillip Tanner, who rushed for a team-high 15 TDs last season, is still “out” this week since sustaining a knee injury in a Week 2 win over Memphis.
Troy has won three in a row over MTSU, including last season’s 31-17 win in Murfreesboro as a six-point road favorite. In the Blue Raiders’ last trip to Troy, the Trojans dealt out woodshed treatment in a 45-7 win as 12-point home favorites.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--About his former OC Franklin, Blakeney told the Associated Press, “Tony is a good friend and a great football coach. I have the highest respect and regard for him. He knows how to coach football and get people in the right places to score points.”
--Southern Miss will try to snap a two-game losing streak Saturday at Louisville. This game was off the board Monday due to the uncertain status of So. Miss RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown. Both players missed last Thursday’s 30-17 loss at UAB in a game in which the Golden Eagles were favored by double digits. Worst of all, Larry Fedora’s team is now without sophomore quarterback Austin Davis for the rest of the year. Davis, who threw for 3,128 yards with a 23/8 TD-INT ratio in 2008, sustained torn knee ligaments against UAB. Fletcher, who injured his groin in a 37-34 Week 3 win over Virginia, is the school’s all-time leader in every rushing category that exists. Brown had 67 receptions for 1,117 yards and 12 TDs as a freshman last year. Fletcher and Brown are “questionable” this week.
--With Mississippi State’s 42-31 home loss to Ga. Tech this past weekend, the Bulldogs have not beaten a BCS school in a non-conference game since New Year’s Eve of 2000. That’s when Wayne Madkin, the school’s all-time leading passer, led MSU to a 43-41 overtime win over Texas A&M in a driving snowstorm at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport.
--If interested, you can check my quick-hit thoughts on Bobby Bowden's demise and/or my latest Top 30.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
If you wish, you can follow Brian Edwards on twitter at Vegasbedwards.
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