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SEC Showdowns
October 9, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
T he main event for the SEC in Week 6 will be at Tiger Stadium where LSU will put its 31-game home winning streak (at night, that is) on the line against the top-ranked Florida Gators. The last time UF came to Baton Rouge, it was the Tigers who were No. 1.
On that night, the Gators blew three separate double-digit leads and Urban Meyer inexplicably left a timeout in his pocket (Orien-Greene style for hardcore UF fans), as LSU converted five-of-five fourth-down opportunities to pull out a 28-24 victory. Florida did take the cash, however, as a seven-point underdog.
The last time the Gators came to Baton Rouge as the No. 1 team in the country was in 1997. (Chris Berman voice) We know because we were there.
On that night, Steve Spurrier stubbornly didn’t give Fred Taylor enough touches, instead asking sophomore QB Doug Johnson to attempt 50-plus passes. Herb Tyler and Kevin Faulk went off for LSU and the home team pulled out a 28-21 upset, prompting fans to rush the field and tear down the goal posts.
Meyer has come up short in both of his trips to Tiger Stadium since taking over for Ron Zook at UF. In 2005, JaMarcus Russell tried to give the game to Florida with turnovers galore. Nevertheless, LSU captured a 21-17 victory but the Gators again hooked up their backers as six-point underdogs.
The biggest story for this week obviously centers around the health status of Florida senior QB Tim Tebow, who sustained the first concussion of his career two weeks ago in a 41-7 win at Kentucky as a 20 ½-point road favorite.
During UF’s bye week, Tebow didn’t participate in any team activities while recovering and undergoing a series of post-concussion tests with the school’s medical staff. He returned to the practice field for the first time Tuesday, albeit on a limited basis. Tebow wore a non-contact jersey.
He also practiced Wednesday without contact. According to Meyer, Tebow will be a game-time decision and no announcement on his status will be made until the “foot hits the ball.”
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (4-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) as a nine-point favorite. The number was nine Monday but by Tuesday morning, it had been reduced to 7 ½ at most books. That’s where it remained early Thursday afternoon. The total is 45 and the home team is plus-240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240).
LSU (5-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) returns home after a stirring 20-13 win at Georgia to avenge last year’s 52-38 home loss to the Dawgs. This space ripped Les Miles last week for not getting the ball to Charles Scott, who had just six carries in a 30-26 win at Mississippi St. two weeks ago.
Perhaps The Mad Hatter was listening? Scott rushed 19 times for 95 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including the game winner from 33 yards out with 46 seconds remaining. The Hat’s squad won outright as a 3 ½-point road underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-150 return.
During Miles’ tenure, LSU has only been a home underdog once. That situation came last year when Nick Saban made his return to Tiger Stadium and led Alabama to a 27-21 overtime win as a three-point favorite. As a road favorite under Meyer, the Gators are 7-8 ATS. However, they have covered the number in seven straight such spots.
CBS will have the telecast Saturday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Ole Miss and Alabama won’t be in the prime-time slot this week, but both schools will have plenty at stake when they collide in Oxford at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. This past summer when books made early lines for “Games of the Year,” the Rebels were tabbed as three-point favorites over the Tide.
That was then and this is now. And now ‘Bama is favored by five. The Tide is coming off a 38-20 win at Kentucky as a 16-point road favorite. Junior QB Greg McElroy threw a pair of touchdown passes without being intercepted to improve his TD-INT ratio to 9/1.
Ole Miss (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) was in Music City last week, capturing a 23-7 win at Vanderbilt as a 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Jevan Snead threw three touchdown passes but was also intercepted three times. Shay Hodge had eight receptions for 122 yards, including a pair of TD grabs from Snead.
The Rebels will be in their first spot as home underdogs on Houston Nutt’s watch. However, we should mention that Ole Miss took the cash in all five games as an underdog in Nutt’s first season, winning outright three times over Florida, LSU and Texas Tech.
Alabama owns a 5-2 spread record as a road favorite during Saban’s three seasons in Tuscaloosa. When these teams met at Bryant-Denny Stadium last season, the Tide jumped all over the Rebels early and took a 24-3 lead to intermission.
But Nutt’s team wouldn’t die. After driving the ball down the length of the field to start the second half, ‘Bama’s defense stiffened and forced Ole Miss into a short field-goal attempt. That’s when Nutt reached into his bag of tricks and the Rebels executed a fake field goal to perfection for a touchdown.
Ole Miss would pull to within 24-20 and had the ball with a chance to win in the final minutes. But Snead and Co. ran out of downs just inside ‘Bama territory. Nevertheless, they covered the number as 11-point underdogs.
Gamblers can take the Rebels to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180). The total was 45 ½ on the send-out from LVSC.
South Carolina (4-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) will play host to Kentucky in a 12:30 p.m. Eastern kick Saturday. LVSC opened the Gamecocks as 13-point home favorites. As of early Thursday morning, that number was adjusted down to 10 with the total at 46. Kentucky (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is plus-280 on the money line (risk $100 to win $280).
Steve Spurrier’s squad is coming off a 38-14 home win over South Carolina St. in a non-lined matchup. Stephen Garcia ran for a touchdown and threw a pair of scoring strikes to Moe Brown.
Garcia will go against a banged-up Kentucky secondary. In fact, UK’s All-American cornerback Trevard Lindley, who is perhaps the nation’s premier cover corner, has been ruled “out” after spraining his ankle in last week’s loss to Alabama. Also, starting CB Paul Warford is “out” with a quad injury.
South Carolina will be without starting tight end Weslye Saunders, who caught the game-winning TD pass to beat UK (24-17) last season. Saunders is "out" with a sprained ankle. He has been one of Garcia's favorite targets, hauling in 14 catches for 156 yards.
Kick-off at Williams-Brice Stadium is slated for 12:30 p.m. Eastern.
Georgia (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) will be in bounce-back mode when it goes to Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee at 12:20 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The Volunteers are one-point home favorites at most spots, while the total is 46 ½.
Tennessee (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) also lost last week at home, dropping a 26-22 decision against Auburn as a two-point ‘chalk.’ Lane Kiffin’s team is now 1-3 ATS at home.
UGA out-yarded UT 458-209 last year but won by just a 26-14 count, allowing the Vols to cash tickets as 12 ½-point underdogs. The Dawgs have won six of the last nine head-to-head meetings between these SEC East rivals. They own a 31-5 SU record in true road games during Mark Richt’s tenure.
Auburn (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) will play its second road game in as many weeks when it takes on Arkansas. Most books have the Tigers as two-point favorites with a total of 66.
The Razorbacks snapped a two-game losing streak last week when they went to Cowboys Stadium and spanked Texas A&M, 47-19. The Hogs covered the number easily as short favorites. Ryan Mallett threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns.
Bobby Petrino’s team won 25-22 at Auburn last year as a 16 ½-point road underdog. The Hogs out-yarded the Tigers 416-193 and RB Michael Smith rushed for 176 yards.
ESPN will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--You ready for a stat that Steve Spurrier loves to see? Stephen Garcia has not thrown an interception in 115 consecutive attempts dating back to the first half of a 41-37 Week 2 loss at Georgia.
--South Carolina CB Akeem Auguste will serve the second game of a three-game suspension Saturday vs. Kentucky. Auguste was disciplined for violating unspecified team and university rules.
--South Carolina has won nine in a row against Kentucky. Spurrier has never lost to UK in 16 games as a head coach (12 at UF).
--Vanderbilt is a 10 ½-point road favorite Saturday at Army. The total is 38 ½ at most books. ESPN Classic will have the telecast at noon Eastern.
--Mallett has an 11/2 touchdown-interception ratio for the Razorbacks.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
If you wish, you can follow Brian Edwards on twitter at Vegasbedwards.
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