|
Tulsa at UTEP
October 21, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is on an 18-11 run (62%, +819!) in college football. He's No. 2 on VI in guaranteed picks (17-8, 68%, +844) with this pay-if-it-wins-only selection pending for tonight!
O ne week after giving Boise St. fits before dropping a 28-21 decision at home, Tulsa (4-2 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) goes on the road to square off against UTEP tonight.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tulsa as a 6 ½-point favorite. As of early this afternoon, most spots had the Golden Hurricane favored by 8 1/2. Sportsbook.com had a total of 58 this morning, but that tally has been adjusted to 60 at most books. UTEP is plus-270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).
Although Todd Graham’s team couldn’t pull the upset as a plus-280 money-line underdog against the Broncos, bettors backing Tulsa as a nine-point ‘dog cashed tickets. They did so thanks to a 55-yard TD pass from G.J. Kinne to Slick Shelley with 9:29 left in the fourth quarter.
The Golden Hurricane got the ball back twice with a chance to tie, but they could muster just one first down. Therefore, the 49 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 56-point total.
Kinne completed 14-of-27 passes for 154 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. For the season, the transfer from Texas has connected on 61.9 percent of his throws for 1,296 yards with an outstanding 12/2 touchdown-interception ratio.
Kinne has a dynamic playmaker to work with in sophomore wide receiver Damaris Johnson, who has 24 receptions for 428 yards and a pair of TDs. Johnson also has 118 rushing yards on just 15 carries.
Even in the losing effort against Boise St., Graham came away pleased with both his team and his quarterback. According to the Associated Press, Graham said about Ginne, "G.J. doesn't need me to pick him up. He's pretty strong. He was disappointed in the locker room, but the guy's a warrior and he's gonna be phenomenal."
When asked if his team’s confidence was shaken by the end of an 11-game home winning streak, Graham told the AP, "Our boys battled hard. This is the highest ranked team we've played. They are a great team, and they have one of the best offenses in the nation, they are really explosive. We fought and battled hard."
UTEP (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) had an open date this past weekend. Before that, the Miners lost 35-20 at Memphis as one-point road favorites.
Mike Price’s team is 1-2 both SU and ATS at home this year. UTEP opened the season with a 23-17 loss to Buffalo as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ In Week 2, Kansas came to town and dealt out a 34-7 beating as a 13 ½-point road favorite.
The Miners picked up their first win of the year in a 38-12 triumph at New Mexico St. as 14-point road favorites. They were rolled up early and often the following week at Texas, losing by a 64-7 count as 36-point puppies.
In Week 5, UTEP pulled a stunner by capturing a 58-41 win over a Houston squad that had previously beaten Oklahoma St. and Texas Tech. The Miners were live ‘dogs in that spot, winning outright even though they were catching 15 points.
Junior QB Trevor Vittatoe has not been able to play at the level he exhibited in posting a 33/9 TD-INT ratio in 2008. Vittatoe has seen his completion percentage drop from 58.9 percent to 53.4. Most telling, his TD-INT ratio is an abysmal 5/7 this year.
Donald Buckram has emerged as Price’s go-to RB, rushing for 618 yards and six touchdowns. He averages 6.4 yards per carry to date. Buckram was the catalyst in the win over the Cougars, producing 262 rushing yards and four TDs.
Tulsa and SMU are tied for first place in Conference USA’s West division with 2-0 records. UTEP is 1-1 in the loop.
UTEP owns a 7-4 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Price’s six-year tenure. The Miners have won outright in four of those contests.
Tulsa is 2-0-1 as a road favorite this year, but it went 4-7 ATS in those spots during the first two years on Graham’s watch.
The home team has won five in a row in this series. When these schools met last year, Tulsa had a NCAA season-high 791 yards of total offense in a 77-35 win as an 18-point home ‘chalk.’ The 77-point outburst was the most for the Golden Hurricane since 1964.
The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 for Tulsa this year. The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for UTEP, 1-1 in its home assignments.
ESPN will have television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--UTEP junior DB Braxton Amy is “doubtful” with an undisclosed injury that’s kept him out the last three weeks.
--Tulsa’s best offensive lineman – sophomore Tyler Holmes – is “out” with a leg injury, while senior safety Charles Davis is “out” for the year with a knee injury.
--Idaho is the nation’s lone undefeated team remaining for our purposes, improving to 7-0 ATS with its 35-23 home win over Hawaii as an eight-point favorite. The Vandals, who are 6-1 SU with their only loss coming at Washington, were in the ‘chalk’ role for the first time in their win over the Warriors. Robb Akey’s team plays at Nevada this week as a double-digit underdog.
--Pitt’s Dion Lewis is enjoying a sensational freshman campaign. Lewis is second in the country in rushing yards (918), averaging 5.7 YPC with nine touchdowns. The Panthers are 6-1 going into Saturday’s home game against USF.
--The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for North Carolina St. with each game playing to 54 combined points or more. The Wolfpack have given up the following scoring outputs in those four outings against Pitt, Wake Forest, Duke and BC: 31, 30, 49 and 52. Obviously, Tom O’Brien’s defense was crushed by the loss of linebacker Nate Irving, who is out for the season due to injuries sustained during a car crash over the summer.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
If you wish, you can follow Brian Edwards on twitter at Vegasbedwards.
|