By Bruce Marshall
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With the most-recent BCS polls released shortly before we went to press, we saw a couple of curious developments that could turn into some real controversies in early December. Although, as usual, we expect these situations to sort themselves out over the next month.
But if they don't, ponder these possibilities: the chances that BCS mechanics eventually cause a couple of undefeated champions from card-carrying BCS conferences to be leapfrogged for a spot in the eventual title game by one-loss entries from other leagues (namely the SEC).
We're not even talking about noted "BCS Busters" like Boise State and TCU right now. Rather, we're talking about Iowa and Cincinnati.
And, in particular, the Bearcats from the Big East.
Knowing how politics works in the BCS, we doubt its ranking mechanisms would allow an eventually unbeaten Big Ten champ such as Iowa (which now ranks fourth in the latest BCS poll) to get bypassed by any one-loss team in the title game. But the case of Cincinnati is different, because the Bearcats currently sit 8th in the just-released BCS poll, behind not only a one-loss team (Southern Cal), but the aforementioned "Busters" TCU and Boise.
What makes this more intriguing is that fact the Bearcats sit ahead of the Hawkeyes in one of the "human" polls, the Associated Press version, although it happens not to be the one used in BCS calculations. We've seen the Hawkeyes and Bearcats both, and if the two were to meet on a neutral field in Albuquerque, we might side with Cincy.
Regardless, there is an apparent built-in bias within the mechanics of the ranking apparatus that will likely downgrade the Big East and its eventual champion. Remember, the computer polls that make up part of the equation are no smarter than the humans who feed them information. Here is where the controversial "SOS" (Strength of Schedule) component, which is part of the many computer rankings, is subject to various interpretations...all of them rather subjective.
This season, for example, we'd be reluctant to make a knee-jerk reaction that the SEC is much superior to the rest of college football. Results, limited as they have been from intersectional play, do not confirm as much. The "eye test" doesn't either after watching the likes of Florida, Alabama, and LSU struggle this season, not to mention varied inconsistencies by other supposed SEC heavyweights (Ole Miss, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, etc.).
Make no mistake, we still think the SEC is probably the strongest league in the country, but the gap is not nearly as wide as we have been used to seeing in recent years. After all, a couple of mediocre Pac-10 teams traveled to SEC country in September and were hardly out of their depth; indeed, a very modest UCLA team, which currently sits in 9th place in the Pac-10, won a game at Knoxville vs. Tennessee. The same Arizona State team that was mauled by Stanford last Saturday night took Georgia to the wire in Athens before losing on a last-second field goal.
Evidence is not overwhelming elsewhere in the SEC, either. Kentucky is probably bound for another minor bowl but has benefited from a woeful non-conference schedule, and was even pushed to the limit by a poor Louisville contingent... in Lexington, no less. Ranked South Carolina was life-and-death at what turned out to be a modest N.C. State, not to mention having to fight for its life vs. Vanderbilt last week. Auburn's early 4-0 break was accumulated vs. mostly subpar opposition; its highlighted 41-30 win over West Virginia was of the misleading variety. LSU was in a scrap vs. a Washington team that has played better than expected, but is still under .500 and has been routed in recent weeks by Stanford & Oregon. Ole Miss finally seems to have hit stride, but wins over Memphis, SE Louisiana, and UAB have hardly tested the Rebs outside of conference play. Arkansas' most impressive win was against the same Texas A&M side that was recently creamed 62-14 at Kansas State. And not that we are inclined to bring Vanderbilt into any discussion about the SEC's prowess, but we have to mention that the Commodores recently lost a game at Army that we witnessed in person at West Point.
Meanwhile, Florida and Alabama, the top two teams in recent polls, have hardly been setting the world on fire, either. Among the Gators' recent struggles are laborious tussles vs. Mississippi State (admittedly better than advertised) and a narrow escape vs. a dangerous but flawed Arkansas. Florida also couldn't shake Tennessee in September at The Swamp. As for the Crimson Tide, its QB, Greg McElroy, hasn't tossed a TD pass in three weeks, as the offense has reverted to one-dimensional mode featuring RB Mark Ingram, who admittedly has emerged as a Heisman Trophy contender. Surviving last week against the same Tennessee team that lost to UCLA wasn't guaranteed until DT Terrence Cody blocked UT PK Daniel Lincoln's last-second FG try, also Cody's second such block of the game. The Tide at least has one noteworthy non-conference win to its credit, rallying past Virginia Tech in the opener at the Georgia Dome, but otherwise the SEC intersectional scoreboard looks a bit skimpy. Florida's best non-conference win came against Sun Belt rep Troy, and considering its struggles vs. some modest conference opposition, we're hardly convinced that Erin Andrews' alma mater is really head and shoulders above the rest (although Erin, as always, is nonpareil in her sideline reporting role for ESPN).
Speaking of the Gators, it is becoming apparent that the team is missing some of the spark it displayed a year ago. Many regional observers, who questioned in the summer if Urban Meyer was going to be able to adequately replace Percy Harvin's homerun dimension, have their answer, at least as of late October. It's a no. As for ‘Bama, although the defense looks special, that offense just doesn't look to be national championship caliber.
And after watching Florida and Alabama every week, we are hardly convinced those are the best two of the lot, nor do we believe Texas is unbeatable, either, although the Longhorns looked pretty good last weekend vs. fading Missouri. In Texas' case, a suspect ground game is cause for concern. And we aren't sure any of those three are really any better than Cincinnati or Iowa, or for that matter, TCU or Boise State. Indeed, if there were ever a year where a playoff was needed to sort things out in college football, this would have been it.
We probably won't be able to fully judge if the SEC is a lot better, or just about on par, with the rest of the college football conferences until the bowl season. But at this point, let's just say that we're not convinced.