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West Virginia at South Florida
October 30, 2009
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is locked and loaded with the side and total in his pick pack for Friday's WVU-USF showdown!
T he Big East takes center stage in college football Friday night when South Florida plays host to West Virginia in Tampa. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened WVU as a three-point favorite with a total of 48. As of late this afternoon, most books had the Mountaineers favored by three with the total in the 47-48 range. Bettors can take USF on the money line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130).
West Virginia (6-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread) has won four in a row since suffering its lone loss of the year by a 41-30 count at Auburn back in Week 3. However, the ‘Neers are 1-3 ATS in those four victories.
Once again, they failed to take the cash in last week’s 28-24 home win over UConn as eight-point home favorites. In fact, Bill Stewart’s squad needed Noel Devine’s 56-yard touchdown dash with 2:10 left to emerge with the outright victory.
Devine enjoyed a monster performance against the Huskies, who were trying to pull the upset in honor of their slain teammate, Jasper Howard. But Devine wouldn’t let it happen, rushing 23 times for 178 yards.
WVU senior QB Jarrett Brown completed 16-of-27 throws for 153 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Brown also had 10 carries for 41 yards, including a five-yard TD run. Tavon Austin returned the opening kickoff of the game 98 yards for a touchdown.
South Florida (5-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) started the season 5-0 but has been soundly beaten in back-to-back Big East contests. Two Thursdays ago, the Bulls played host to Cincinnati in a battle of undefeated squads. When the dust settled, the Bearcats remained unbeaten thanks to a 34-17 win as two-point road favorites.
Jim Leavitt’s team went down again last week at Pittsburgh, where the Panthers dealt out a 41-14 shellacking as 6 ½-point home favorites. Bill Stull threw for 245 yards and a pair of TDs, while Pitt freshman RB Dion Lewis had 111 rushing yards and one touchdown.
USF’s redshirt freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels inherited the starting job when senior Matt Grothe sustained a season-ending knee injury in a 59-0 win over Charleston Southern back on Sep. 19. Daniels got his first start in his hometown of Tallahassee, where he was a star athlete at Lincoln High School and garnered Tallahassee Democrat Player of the Year honors in both football and basketball in 2007.
On Sep. 26, Daniels returned home and led the Bulls to a 17-7 win at Florida State as 14-point road underdogs. Daniels threw for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Seminoles. He also ran for 126 yards on 23 carries.
Daniels followed up that performance by leading USF to a 34-20 win at Syracuse the following week. Bettors backing the Bulls cashed ticket as 7 ½-point road favorites, as Daniels threw for 208 yards and two TDs without an interception.
Since then, however, things have gone south for Daniels and the Bulls. He threw a pair of interceptions in both losses to Cincy and Pitt, as they were outscored by a combined tally of 75-31. For the season, Daniels has a team-high 415 rushing yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He has connected on just 53.1 percent of his passes for 864 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-interception ratio.
Brown had huge shoes to fill in taking over the starting QB job at West Virginia. After all, Pat White is the only QB in NCAA history to lead a school to four consecutive bowl victories. But Brown has risen to the occasion.
Through seven games, he is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,362 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio. Brown is also averaging 4.2 YPC and has a pair of TD runs.
Brown has the luxury of handing off to Devine, one of the country’s most explosive offensive players. Devine is seventh in the nation and second in the Big East in rushing yards with 912. The junior has 10 rushing TDs and is averaging 6.7 YPC.
Brown’s go-to guy in the passing game is junior WR Jock Sanders, who has 53 receptions for 513 yards and two TD catches.
When West Virginia came down to Tampa in 2007, it dominated USF in first downs (21-13) and yardage (437-274). However, the Bulls captured a 21-13 win as seven-point home underdogs. Last year in Morgantown, WVU exacted revenge in a 13-7 triumph, but USF backers were winners catching seven points.
WVU covered the number in its only road favorite spot so far this year, trashing Syracuse 34-13 as a 10-point ‘chalk’ at the Carrier Dome. USF went down in its only home ‘dog situation, the aforementioned loss to Cincy.
The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for USF, 2-0 in its home games. Regardless of the venue, the Bulls have seen three straight ‘overs.’ The ‘over’ is also 4-2 overall for WVU, 1-1 in its road assignments. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these schools.
Rain is not expected Friday in Tampa, while temperatures are forecasted to be in the 70s.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Since 2002, USF owns a 6-5 spread record as a home underdog.
--Idaho failed to cover the number for the first time this season in last week’s 70-45 loss at Nevada as a 16-point road underdog. On the flip side, Illinois did take the cash for the first time in 2009, but the Illini still lost 24-14 at Purdue as a 10 ½-point road underdog. Nevertheless, the Illinois AD has come out strong in support of Ron Zook, who took the school to the Rose Bowl two years ago but has a 10-32 record if you take out the 9-4 campaign of 2007. But seriously, what else is the AD going to say in late October?
--Minnesota WR Eric Decker, an All-American candidate, is out for the rest of the regular season with a strained foot suffered in Saturday’s loss at Ohio St. Decker has 50 receptions for 783 yards and five touchdowns. Head coach Tim Brewster is optimistic Decker could return for a potential bowl game if the 4-4 Gophers garner an invite. They have three straight home games looming (vs. Michigan St., Illinois and South Dakota St.) before closing the regular season at Iowa.
--Kentucky cornerback Trevard Lindley, one of the nation’s premier cover corners, is expected to miss his fourth straight game this week with an ankle injury. In addition, LB Micah Johnson is "doubtful" for the 4-3 Wildcats, who are set to host Mississippi St. as 3 ½-point home favorites Saturday in Lexington. Johnson has a strained MCL. When UK left spring practice, it felt it had three All-American candidates in Johnson, Lindley and DE Jeremy Jarmon, who was ruled inelgible. None of the three are expected on the field this weekend.
--Rutgers is a seven-point underdog Saturday at UConn. Since 2003, the Scarlet Knights own a 16-6-1 spread record as road underdogs.
--Florida’s non-cover in its 29-19 win at Mississippi St. as a 22-point road ‘chalk’ ended an 8-0 ATS run for the Gators as road favorites. On several radio shows this week, I've been asked, "what's wrong with Florida?" My answer: Nothing. The Gators lead the SEC in scoring offense (35.3 PPG), scoring defense (10.1 PPG), total offense (457 YPG) and total defense (229.6 YPG). They are also unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the country. If that represents "problems," then we should all aspire to have problems.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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