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Primetime Tips
October 30, 2009
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
L et’s jump right into a discussion of what gamblers are looking at as options for Saturday night in Week 9. A battle of once-beaten teams at Autzen Stadium in Eugene is the main event, as Oregon is set to host USC in a crucial Pac-10 showdown.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Southern Cal (6-1 straight up, 2-5 against the spread) as a 4 ½-point road favorite, but the Trojans were favored by three Thursday afternoon. The total is 47 and the Ducks are plus-130 on the money line (risk $100 to win $130).
Since getting dominated in a 19-8 loss at Boise St. in its opener, Oregon (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) has responded with six straight wins. The Ducks have covered the spread in five consecutive outings, including last week’s 43-19 win at Washington as 9 ½-point road favorites.
With the Huskies leading 3-0 early in the second quarter, the game turned on a blocked punt by Oregon’s Rory Cavaille that was recovered for a touchdown by Tyrell Irvine. Washington countered by marching down the field for a first-and-goal opportunity from the Ducks’ four yard line.
However, three plays later, Jake Locker was intercepted on fourth and goal by Javes Lewis. If you think those key plays were momentum shifters, check out what happened next.
On Oregon’s ensuing drive, it faced a second and 36 and a third and 25, but Jeremiah Masoli hit David Paulson for a 32-yard gainer for a first down. Moments later on fourth and five, the Ducks perfectly executed a fake field goal that eventually set up Masoli for a one-yard touchdown run.
Masoli added another TD run and a TD pass in the second half. He finished with 54 yards rushing on 11 carries, in addition to completing 14-of-22 passes for 157 yards without an interception. Redshirt freshman running back LaMichael James turned in another spectacular performance, rushing 15 times for 154 yards and two touchdowns.
The aforementioned debacle on the smurf turf is a distant memory for the Ducks because of the play of James, who stepped in for the suspended LaGarrette Blount and has rushed for 735 yards and six TDs. James is averaging a robust 6.9 yards per carry.
Also, we have to offer major props to first-year head coach Chip Kelly. Seriously, has a coaching debut ever been as big a catastrophe as Kelly dealt with in Boise? For starters, he replaced Mike Bellotti after serving under him as an offensive coordinator for two seasons, yet his offense didn’t get a first down against the Broncos until late in the third quarter.
And then there was the post-game hysteria caused by Blount that led to his suspension the following day. But since then, the Ducks have been rolling. They have won all four home games, posting a 3-1 spread record.
California came to Eugene with an unbeaten record and was favored by five back in Week 4. The Bears left with a 42-3 loss. Next, Oregon waxed Washington St. by a 52-6 count. Now it returns home after road wins over UCLA (24-10) and Washington.
Pete Carroll’s team has won four straight games since suffering its lone loss at Washington back in Week 3. With that said, gamblers have been better served by fading the Trojans, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
USC won a 42-36 decision over Oregon St. last week, but the Beavers easily covered the number as 20 ½-point underdogs. Allen Bradford was the catalyst for the Trojans, producing 147 yards and a pair of rushing TDs on 15 carries. Damian Williams also had a critical 63-yard punt return for a TD.
Freshman QB Matt Barkley threw for 202 yards and two TDs, but he was also intercepted twice. For the year, Barkley has a ho-hum 7/5 TD-INT ratio. Williams is his favorite target, hauling in 34 receptions for 525 yards and three TDs.
Joe McKnight leads USC in rushing with 617 yards and seven TDs, averaging 6.4 YPC. Bradford has 375 rushing yards and four TDs, averaging 7.4 YPC.
USC has been a road favorite four times this year, compiling a 3-1 SU record and a 1-3 ATS ledger. The last time the Trojans went to Eugene, they left with a 24-17 loss as 2 ½-point road underdogs. However, they beat down the Ducks last season by a 44-10 score as 16-point home favorites.
The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Ducks, 3-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, USC has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-1 in its road assignments.
ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
The fans of Oregon and USC will also have their eyes on the events in Stillwater. That’s where Oklahoma State will try to knock off undefeated Texas in a Big 12 battle. LVSC opened the Longhorns as 8 ½-point road favorites with a total of 52.
As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had the ‘Horns at nine with the total still sitting at 52. The Cowboys are plus-280 to win outright (risk $100 to win $280).
Texas (7-0 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) might have played its best game of the season last week, trouncing Missouri 41-7 as a 13-point road ‘chalk.’ Colt McCoy connected on 26-of-31 attempts for 269 passing yards with three TDs and one interception. Mack Brown’s defense was dynamite, limiting the Tigers to just 173 yards of total offense.
Jordan Shipley had seven catches for 108 yards, including a pair of TD grabs. Shipley could be on his way to garnering All-American honors, as he has 58 receptions for 713 yards and five scores. McCoy hasn’t matched his 2008 numbers, but he’s still completing 71.7 percent of his passes. He has 1,806 passing yards and 14 TD passes, but McCoy has been picked off eight times, the equivalent of his interception total for all of ’08.
Oklahoma State (6-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) has bounced back from a 45-35 home loss to Houston to win five straight games. During that stretch, Mike Gundy’s squad is 2-1-1 versus the number.
The Cowboys spanked Baylor last week 34-7 as nine-point road favorites. OSU senior QB Zac Robinson was nearly flawless, completing 23-of-27 passes for 250 yards with three TDs and zero interceptions.
Robinson has had to deal with the recent absences of his two premier weapons. Nevertheless, he is enjoying another stellar campaign with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio.
Robinson’s favorite target, junior All-American Dez Bryant, has missed the last four games after being suspended by the NCAA for lying about his offseason workouts with Deion Sanders. With his appeals recently exhausted, Bryant has now been ruled out for the rest of the season.
On the other hand, RB Kendall Hunter might return to the field this week. Hunter, who rushed for 1,555 yards and 16 TDs in ’08, has been out with a leg injury since a 41-24 win over Rice in Week 3.
Oklahoma St. owns a 4-4-2 spread record as a home underdog on Gundy’s watch. The ‘Boys are 4-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this year.
The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for Texas, 2-0 in its road games. OSU has watched the ‘under’ cash at a 4-2 overall clip and a 3-1 pace in its home outings.
ABC will provide regional coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Those two games are the highlights of the prime-time action, but gamblers certainly have other options under the lights. For instance, South Carolina goes to Knoxville to take on Tennessee at Neyland Stadium. This will be the ESPN game at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.
As of late Thursday, most books had the Vols listed as six-point favorites with a total of 41. The Gamecocks are plus-200 on the money line.
Steve Spurrier’s team owns an 11-4-1 spread record in 16 games as a road underdog during his five-year tenure at South Carolina. The Gamecocks have taken the cash in all four games as underdogs this season. On the flip side, the Vols are 2-3 ATS in five games as home favorites in ’09.
If you like to eat chalk, you’ll certainly have a chance to do so in NBC’s primetime broadcast of Washington State versus Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. The Irish and Cougars will square off at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
LVSC opened Notre Dame as a 31-point favorite, but most books have adjusted the Irish to 28. Oklahoma is also a 28-point ‘chalk’ for its home game against Kansas State on FSN at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Wildcats actually lead the Big 12 North with a 3-1 conference record, but they have played a creampuff schedule to date.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Oregon’s Masoli has seven rushing TDs and a 5/2 TD-INT ratio when throwing the ball.
--Texas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 head-to-head meetings against OSU.
--FSU has been favored four times this year, going winless both SU and ATS in those four contests. The ‘Noles return to the ‘chalk’ role this week against North Carolina St. Most spots have Bobby Bowden’s team favored by either nine or 9 ½ (as of Thursday).
--If you simply saw the score and didn’t check the box score or recap for Iowa State’s stunning 9-7 win over Nebraska last week, then let me make some sense of it for you. The Cornhuskers had eight turnovers. That’s right, EIGHT turnovers. Most appalling for Bo Pelini’s team was the fact that four of those give-aways came inside the Cyclones’ five yard line. Nebraska will try to bounce back this week at Baylor as a 13 ½-point favorite. The Bears are down to their third-string QB and have been unable to muster much offensive production since losing sophomore sensation Robert Griffin to a season-ending injury. The ‘Huskers are 3-0 ATS as road favorites on Pelini’s watch.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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