Nine weeks of the college football regular season is in the books and only seven out of 120 teams are still unbeaten. Looking at those schools, you could argue that five or six will finish the year 12-0 or 13-0.
Florida (1) and Alabama (3) are both four wins away from reaching the SEC Championship with perfect marks, which means one will advance to the BCS Championship and other will most likely earn an at-large BCS berth.
Of the final four games, the Gators have a road test at South Carolina in two weeks while the Crimson Tide could have their hands full this Saturday when LSU visits Tuscaloosa.
Texas (2) jumped Alabama in the AP poll and BCS poll after completing a brutal three-game set, which included impressive road victories at Missouri (41-7) and Oklahoma State (41-14). The Longhorns will be double-digit favorites in their final four games and probably the Big 12 title game as well. If Mack Brown’s team wins out, then expect to see them in Pasadena on Jan. 7, 2010.
Iowa (11) sits behind the above trio in the latest BCS rankings but the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants still aren’t buying into the Hawkeyes. The first place team in the Big 10 sits behind Penn State (8) and Ohio State (9) in this week’s rankings. The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes square off in Happy Valley this weekend. If PSU wins, Iowa will need to win two of its final three victories to seal the conference. Kirk Ferentz and company host Northwestern and Minnesota but have a battle at Columbus next Saturday, which has no Big 10 title implications unless the Buckeyes win at Penn State this weekend.
It would be hard to see the Hawkeyes jump past any of the above three in the BCS Rankings and definitely not the LVSC Rankings, but a trip to Pasadena and a spot in the Rose Bowl seems more than likely.
While Iowa’s road has one speed bump left, most would argue that TCU (7), Boise State (10) and Cincinnati (13) have a great shot to run the table. It’s probably still a little too early but we asked LVSC senior oddsmaker Mike Seba to create some tentative lines on possible bowl matchups.
Here are VI's latest bowl projections and numbers from LVSC.
BCS Championship – Texas vs. Florida (-3)
Rose Bowl – Oregon (-6) vs. Iowa
Orange Bowl – Cincinnati (-1) vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl – Alabama (-6, 36) vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl – Boise State vs. Penn State (-2.5)
Based on past BCS history, the upcoming five games might be the most competitive in recent years. We didn’t delve into the totals too much but Seba and the crew at LVSC told us that they would send out the TCU-Alabama matchup at 36, which would be the lowest ‘over/under’ posted this season.
Below is complete breakdown of this week’s LVSC rankings.
| 1 |
Florida |
122.0 |
1 |
1 |
| 2 |
Texas |
119.8 |
2 |
2 |
| 3 |
Alabama |
117.9 |
3 |
3 |
| 4 |
Oklahoma |
114.8 |
5 |
24 |
| 5 |
Southern Cal |
114.6 |
4 |
12 |
| 6 |
Oregon |
114.0 |
9 |
8 |
| 7 |
Texas Christian |
113.3 |
5 |
6 |
| 8 |
Penn State |
112.2 |
7 |
11 |
| 9 |
Ohio State |
111.7 |
7 |
16 |
| 10 |
Boise State |
111.3 |
10 |
7 |
| 11 |
Iowa |
110.9 |
11 |
4 |
| 12 |
LSU |
110.5 |
13 |
9 |
| 13 |
Cincinnati |
110.0 |
14 |
5 |
| 14 |
Georgia Tech |
109.0 |
16 |
10 |
| 15 |
Texas Tech |
108.7 |
19 |
NR |
| 16 |
Mississippi |
108.5 |
12 |
NR |
| 17 |
Clemson |
108.3 |
17 |
NR |
| 18 |
Nebraska |
108.2 |
20 |
NR |
| 18 |
California |
108.2 |
17 |
20 |
| 20 |
Tennessee |
107.8 |
24 |
NR |
| 20 |
Oklahoma State |
107.8 |
15 |
19 |
| 22 |
Miami |
107.3 |
22 |
17 |
| 23 |
Pittsburgh |
107.2 |
23 |
13 |
| 24 |
Virginia Tech |
107.1 |
20 |
23 |
| 25 |
Georgia |
106.9 |
27 |
NR |
| 26 |
Arizona |
106.5 |
26 |
18 |
| 27 |
Arkansas |
106.2 |
28 |
NR |
| 28 |
Notre Dame |
106.1 |
24 |
22 |
| 29 |
Stanford |
105.9 |
28 |
NR |
| 30 |
Brigham Young |
105.8 |
NR 31 |
NR |
| Dropped out of Top 30:South Carolina (28) |
| Next 10: Missouri, Boston College, Wisconsin (21 BCS), Oregon State, Florida State, Michigan State, Utah (14 BCS), South Carolina, Connecticut & West Virginia | |
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
