|
|
Games to Watch - Week 10
November 5, 2009
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Each week, VegasInsider.com will keep you abreast with the key games on tap throughout the 15-week regular season.
Week 10
| Saturday - Ohio State at Penn State (ABC-Regional, 3:30 p.m.) |
| Matchup |
Skinny |
Gambling Notes |
at
 |
The Big 10 heats up the gridiron this weekend when No. 15 Ohio State (7-2 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) meets No. 11 Penn State (8-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) in what looks like a battle for second place in the conference. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both trail Iowa by one game in the standings and the Hawkeyes own the head-to-head tiebreaker over PSU. If Ohio State earns a win in this game, then it could win the Big Ten by beating Iowa next Saturday at home and then at Michigan. Penn State needs to win its final three home games and hope Iowa trips up twice in its final three games. Back to this week's matchup, on paper it looks like another classic slugfest. Penn State leads the conference in scoring defense (9.3 PPG) and total defense (254 YPG). Close behind is Ohio State (11.7 PPG, 260 YPG), who is ranked second in both categories. Offensively, Penn State relies on QB Daryll Clark (23 TDs) and Ohio State has put enormous pressure on sophomore Terrelle Pryor (19 TDs) behind center. Both have shown flashes of brilliance yet they're both suspect to making crucial mistakes too, which has been the key in recent meetings. Last year, Pryor fumbled in the fourth quarter which set up Penn State's game-winning touchdown in a 13-6 win in Columbus. A lot of headlines have been circulating around Pryor this weekend since he chose Ohio State over PSU and Michigan, which should add extra fuel to the fans at Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon. |
The last four meetings between the two schools have been split, with each team stealing at least one victory on the road during this span. Penn State has won both of its victories by seven points, while Ohio State has posted 22 and 20-point wins. Even though Jim Tressel has taken heat over the past couple seasons, deservingly so, gamblers have to be pleased with his report card (7-2 ATS) this year. And they're covering healthy numbers too. Penn State started the year with four straight losses against the spread but it has rebounded with four straight covers, including three on the road. We mention the road stat because Joe Paterno and the Lions are 5-1 SU and 1-4 ATS at home this year, with the lone loss coming to Iowa (21-10) on Sept. 26. Ohio State has posted a 2-1 both SU and ATS mark on the road, which includes the 26-18 setback to Purdue on Oct. 17. Great defenses usually post low numbers which in turn helps 'under' players and that's been the case with this pair. Ohio State (7-2) and Penn State (6-2) have both been serious 'under' teams this season. Three of the last four encounters between the two have seen the 'under' cash tickets. The total for this week opened at 39 1/2. One key injury that could make a difference in this tight contest is Ohio State kicker Aaron Pettrey (knee), who was lost for the season. According to extended forecasts, this game will be played in the fifties and with clear skies too. | |
| Saturday - LSU at Alabama (CBS, 3:30 p.m.) |
| Matchup |
Skinny |
Gambling Notes |
at
 |
All eyes will be on Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa this weekend when ninth-ranked LSU (7-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) faces third-ranked Alabama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS). Not only is the SEC West on the line, but possible national title implications as well. For the past two years, this game has been dubbed the "Saban Bowl" and both contests were thrillers. In Nick Saban's first year at Alabama, LSU captured a 41-34 in Baton Rouge against its former coach by scoring two touchdowns in the final three minutes. Last year, Saban avenged that loss by nipping the Tigers 27-21 at home in overtime. Most experts don't believe we'll see a combined 75 or 48 points in this week's showdown, because both Alabama (11.4 PPG) and LSU (12.1 PPG) own tremendous defensive units. After losing their only game of the season to Florida (13-3) on Oct. 10, the Tigers have bounced back with dominating wins over Auburn (31-10) and Tulane (45-0). What's even better for LSU is that the offense has found a nice balance behind QB Jordan Jefferson (12 TDs) and RB Charles Scott. Plus, receivers Terrance Tolliver (38 catches, 501 yards) and Brandon LaFell (8 TDs) are a tough match for any secondary. The Alabama offense doesn't have the same amount of playmakers but it does have a workhorse in RB Mark Ingram (1,004 yards, 8 TDs). What's amazing about Ingram is that he's posting such impressive numbers without a sound passing game (192 YPG) and Alabama's kicker Leigh Tiffin (10.5 PPG) leads the SEC in scoring, which is not something to boast about. |
Is an upset likely to happen here? It certainly wouldn't be a surprise, considering three of the last four meetings between the two teams have watched the visitor leave with their arms up. Looking at the numbers closer, gamblers can't ignore the fact that Alabama struggled and failed to cover double-digit numbers against South Carolina (20-6) and Tennessee (12-10). The victory over the Volunteers could be dubbed "lucky" but the Tide played to lose at the end and let them back into the game. Prior to that pair of ATS setbacks, the team was 5-1 ATS and more importantly, 2-0 ATS as single-digit favorites. LSU is on a little bit of a roll but it's been shaky on the road. Les Miles failed to cover in a win against Washington (31-23) in Week 1, plus they almost lost at Mississippi State (30-26). It should be noted that they were double-digit favorites in this those games and they did win outright at Georgia (20-13) on Oct. 3 in the only spot as a 'dog. The 'over/under' has been hovering at 38 points and LSU has watched the 'under' go 6-2 this year. The 'over' has cashed in the last three head-to-head battles. | |
Other Games to Watch
| Saturday - Oregon at Stanford (FSN, 3:30 p.m.) |
at
 |
The Ducks have been on a serious roll and last week's 47-20 blowout win over USC was a statement win. Will Oregon get caught in a letdown spot against an underrated Stanford team on the road? Well, the Ducks have won seven in a row against the Cardinal and have covered six of those games to boot. Jim Harbaugh's team has gone 4-0 both SU and ATS at home this year. | |
| Saturday - Duke at North Carolina (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.) |
at
 |
The "Battle for Tobacco Road" usually doesn't get noticed until basketball season but the winner of this week's Duke-UNC will become bowl eligible. The Blue Devils haven't been to a bowl game since 1994 but head coach David Cutcliffe has the school pointed in the right direction. UNC has won 18 of the last 19 but the last four have been decided by 8, 6, 1 and 3. Catching 10 looks doable, especially with QB Thaddeus Lewis running the Duke ship. | |
| Saturday - Houston at Tulsa (CSTV, 7:30 p.m.) |
at
 |
Houston is four wins away from finishing the regular season with an 11-1 record. The Cougars last test could be this weekend against a Tulsa team that has dropped three in a row. Last year, Case Keenum and company dropped a 70-spot on the Golden Hurricane in a blowout victory. Will the roles get reversed this season? The number on this game looks real tricky. | |
| Saturday - Florida State at Clemson (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.) |
at
 |
A lot would have to happen but Florida State still has a chance to reach the ACC Championship. The Seminoles first need to beat Clemson this weekend, which isn't easy since they've dropped three of the last four to the Tigers. Dabo Sweeny's team controls its own destiny for a berth to the title game and it should be noted that Clemson's three losses came by a combined 10 points. And, two of the setbacks came to TCU and Georgia Tech, both highly ranked teams. The Tigers are laying more than eight points for this one, which is the highest number in the last five. | |
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
| |
VI GOLD Membership
Get winning picks from our full roster of handicappers for all sports and receive a 20% discount on all Daily Pick Packs. |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
