As we turn the page in college football to another exciting week of conference action, several teams that weren't expected to do much are turning heads across the country. This week, we'll take a look at four conference matchups, including one that gets more notice on the hardwood than the gridiron.
Duke at North Carolina (-10, 44) - 3:30 PM EST
The Blue Devils and Tar Heels usually make headlines when they get together in basketball, but this football contest is actually a big one for Duke. The Blue Devils still have an outside shot at making the ACC Championship, but that involves running the table. The Heels, meanwhile, finally won their first conference game last Thursday by upsetting Virginia Tech.
Duke has lost only one conference game this season, while beating Maryland, N.C. State, and Virginia. The Blue Devils are pointspread gold as well, compiling a 4-1-1 ATS mark, while going 'over' in five of seven games.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Blue Devils have benefited from a favorable schedule so far, "Duke has played the easiest schedule of any ACC team, but the passing offense is posting huge numbers, averaging 325 yards per game in the air. North Carolina has one the best statistical defenses in the nation, allowing just 265 yards and 16 points per game."
However, with UNC coming off the upset of Virginia Tech, Nelson feels a letdown may be in order, "The Tar Heels have had overwhelming success in this series, but the last four meetings have all been very tightly contested and it makes sense to back the much more explosive underdog against a team coming off a huge primetime win."
Wisconsin (-10 ½, 54 ½) at Indiana - 12:00 PM EST
The Hoosiers were on the verge of pulling off a major upset last week at Iowa, only to give away a 24-14 lead in a 42-24 loss. The Hawkeyes remain unbeaten overall and stay atop the Big 10, while the Hoosiers dropped their third road conference game. IU held a fourth-quarter lead in each of those losses at Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern.
The Badgers are coming off a 37-0 blanking of Purdue last week, as Wisconsin hits the road for only the third time this season. The Badgers have beaten the Hoosiers each of the last four times out, while covering the last three meetings.
Nelson says the Hoosiers just may run out of gas after some disappointing losses, "In four of five Big Ten games, Indiana has played very competitively even if they have just one conference win and this is a team that has exceeded expectations. Wisconsin has had no trouble with Indiana the last four years and the outstanding rushing attack for the Badgers should have a lot of success in this match-up. Through a tougher schedule Wisconsin has been a very good defensive team and unless the Badgers have turnovers they should be in position to deliver a solid road win."
Oregon (-7, 58) at Stanford - 3:30 PM EST
The Ducks have slowly crept into National Championship consideration after blowing out USC last week in Eugene to take a commanding lead inside the Pac-10. Stanford, meanwhile, owns a 4-2 conference record, and a perfect 4-0 mark at home.
Oregon continues to be one of the best teams to back, as the Ducks have covered six straight, while scoring at least 30 points or more in six of the last seven games. Interestingly, the Cardinal has been an underdog just twice this season, losing both times at Arizona and Wake Forest.
The Ducks have won the last seven meetings, while each of the last four matchups have finished 'over' the total. Nelson says that the extra preparation will benefit Jim Harbaugh's club, "Stanford has covered in each of the last ten home games and the Cardinal has had two weeks to focus on this game, while Oregon faces a serious letdown spot. This was a wild game last season as Stanford took a one-point lead with just over two minutes to go, but Oregon rallied for the win. Oregon had four fumbles in that game and managed to win, but it was the lone missed cover in the past seven meetings between these teams for the Ducks."
The Cardinal is led by RB Toby Gerhart and his 13 touchdowns, as Nelson notes that this game will be won on the ground, "Stanford is a threat in this match-up as they rush for 205 yards per game. Oregon has been even more productive on the ground, but a home underdog that can run the ball well makes for a favorable play-on scenario. Oregon may emerge as the elite team they currently rank as, but this will be a serious test."
Washington at UCLA (-5 ½) - 3:30 PM EST
A pair of 3-5 clubs hook up at the Rose Bowl as both teams have struggled following promising starts. The Huskies upset USC back in the third week of the season, but have dropped four of five. The only victory for Washington in this stretch could be considered a fortunate one, as the Huskies returned a controversial interception for a touchdown in a win over Arizona.
The Bruins, meanwhile, began the season 3-0, but have been on the losing end of five in a row. It's been even worse UCLA backers, as the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in this stretch, while losing each game by at least a touchdown.
UCLA has owned this series over the last decade, going 8-2 SU/ATS the previous ten meetings. Nelson says that the Huskies have been tested plenty this season despite owning a losing record, "Washington has played the top-rated schedule in the nation although UCLA is not far behind as both teams are likely better than the records indicate in a very tough Pac-10. UCLA has had great recent success in this series, but Washington will be rested off a bye week and the Huskies have been a far superior offensive team."
Rick Neuheisel's team hasn't gotten its offense going, but Nelson believes the Bruins' defense has to step up, "UCLA is regarded as a great defensive team, but the numbers have slipped considerably in recent weeks. UCLA has allowed at least 24 points in every Pac-10 game and the Bruins have been held under 20 in four of those games. Look for a bounce back from the Huskies in a key spot as UCLA has not proven capable of scoring enough points to win as a favorite against a team that has been dangerous."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
