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West Va. at Cincinnati
November 13, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards has cashed tickets with five straight sides this week, picking winners on Nevada, Ohio, Central Michigan, Rutgers and Bowling Green over the last five days. Don't miss out in his pay-if-it-wins-only selection for tonight!
B ack in August, most pundits were dismissing Cincinnati’s chances to repeat as Big East champs because the school only had one starter returning on the defensive side of the ball. At the time, I suggested that bettors not concern themselves too much with that factoid because Brian Kelly was the best coach in the conference and Tony Pike was the best QB.
But never – ever, ever – did I imply that Cincinnati (9-0 straight up, 6-3 against the spread) was going to be this good. Going into Friday’s showdown against West Virginia, the Bearcats are unbeaten and very much in the thick of the national-title picture.
They’re good enough to lose a Heisman Trophy candidate (Pike) and not miss a beat. Not only that, but Pike might not be able to get his job back now that he’s healthy again.
They’re good enough to win by 32 at Rutgers, by 17 at South Florida and by 10 at Oregon St. Make no mistake, this Cincy squad is for real.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Cincinnati as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 56. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Bearcats favored by nine with the total in the 54-55 range. Gamblers can garner a huge plus-280 payout by backing the Mountaineers to win outright (risk $100 to win $280).
Pike broke his forearm in a 34-17 win at USF back on Oct. 15. The senior signal caller was completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,633 yards with an excellent 15/3 touchdown-interception ratio. Since then, redshirt sophomore QB Zach Collaros has been dynamite, connecting on 76 percent of his throws for 1,229 yards with a 10/1 TD-INT ratio.
Pike can certainly relate. He only became the starter in 2008 after Ben Mauk was ruled ineligible and Dustin Grutza was injured. Now that Pike is back and ready to play this week, Kelly has announced that he’ll play but that Collaros will start.
Collaros enjoyed a monster performance last week, throwing for 480 yards and one touchdown without an interception. In addition, he had 75 rushing yards and a pair of TD runs in a 47-45 win over UConn. The Huskies took the cash as 16 ½-point road underdogs.
No matter who is under center, he’ll have the luxury of throwing to one of the nation’s premier wide receivers in senior Mardy Gilyard. He had 12 receptions for 172 yards in last week’s win over UConn. For the season, Gilyard has 65 receptions for 908 yards and eight touchdowns.
West Virginia (7-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) has been a money burner with four consecutive non-covers and six ATS losses in its last seven games. The Mountaineers bounced back from a 30-19 loss at South Florida two Fridays ago by beating Louisville 17-9 last week. However, the Cardinals covered the number as 16 ½-point road underdogs.
The ‘Neers could only produce 273 yards of total offense against the ‘Ville, but their defense limited the Cards to just three field goals.
Jarrett Brown, a fifth-year senior, has been fairly solid in replacing WVU legend Pat White at the QB position. Although his 10/8 TD-INT ratio won’t impress too many, he has led the school to a 7-2 ledger. Plus, Brown can make plays with his legs, rushing for 332 yards and four TDs.
Noel Devine is WVU’s big-time playmaker who has the speed to take it to the house on any given play. Devine has 167 times for 1,010 yards and 10 touchdowns, which is good for 6.0 yards per carry. He’s also a threat to catch the ball coming out of the backfield. Most of Cincy’s defensive focus will be on containing Devine and not letting him explode for huge plays when he gets into open space.
WVU has only been an underdog once this year, losing 41-30 at Auburn as a seven-point puppy. Cincy, which is 2-2 ATS in four lined home games, has taken the money in both games as a single-digit favorite in 2009.
When these teams squared off in Morgantown in ’08, Cincy emerged with a 26-23 victory in overtime as a 6 ½-point road underdog. In ’07, WVU won a 28-23 decision at Cincy as a 5 ½-point road favorite.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for WVU, 2-1 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for Cincy, 2-2 in its home games.
ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘under’ is 10-4 in Cincy’s last 14 home games.
--The guess here is that Thursday’s early-morning events in Knoxville might wipe that prissy smirk off of Lame Chafin’s face. After all, two of the culprits (Nu’Keese Richardson and Janzen Jackson) were recruits that Chafin’ talked into de-committing from Florida and LSU, respectively, and then bragged about it to no end. This is what we call poetic justice. And remember, Chafin’ is essentially banned from Richardson’s high school in Pahokee that’s produced NFL players like Fred Taylor, Reidel Anthony and Johnny Rutledge (just to name a few). Two weeks ago, Chafin’ stated that the UT program was getting some “street cred” after Lil’ Wayne wrote a lyric about Chafin’ “talking sh__” in a rap song. I guess the Vols have even more street cred now.
--LVSC opened Temple as a seven-point favorite for its Friday game at Akron. As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had the Owls adjusted to 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’ They go into this game against the Zips with a 6-2 spread record.
--Notre Dame is in the midst of a 1-7 ATS slide. The Irish, who are seven-point underdogs at Pitt this week, are 0-3 ATS when leaving South Bend this year. They failed to cover in a pair of road games (at Michigan and at Purdue) and their “home” game against Washington St. in San Antonio.
--Since getting smoked at Florida by a 56-6 count in Week 2, Troy has won seven straight games and compiled a 6-1 ATS record in the process. The Trojans are 13 ½-point ‘dogs Saturday at Arkansas. Remember, Larry Blakeney’s team nearly pulled a late-season upset at LSU last year, but the Tigers rallied from a 31-3 deficit to capture a 40-31 win in come-from-behind fashion.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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