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Wednesday's MAC Tips
November 18, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Brian Edwards is No. 1 on VI in guaranteed NCAAFB picks, producing $8,540 of profit for his "dime clients." Don't miss out on his pay-if-it-wins-only selection for tonight!
T ired of gambling after the long football weekend and Tuesday’s marathon card of college hoops? No? Me neither!
Let’s look at a pair of MAC football games for tonight.
**Buffalo at Miami (OH.)**
--Buffalo (3-7 straight up, 2-6 against the spread) has not been able duplicate its championship season of 2008. The Bulls have lost three in a row in heartbreaking fashion by seven combined points.
--Miami (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS) lost its first seven games by double-digit margins, but it has been more competitive in recent weeks. In fact, the RedHawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four outings. They saw a 3-0 ATS surge end last week in a 35-14 home loss to Bowling Green as four-point underdogs.
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Buffalo as a three-point favorite. As of early this morning, most books had the Bulls favored by four.
--Mike Haywood’s team has been an underdog in all four of its home games, posting a 3-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Turner Gill’s squad is 2-2 ATS on the road but it hasn’t been a road ‘chalk’ until this spot.
--Buffalo is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slide. The Bulls dropped a 27-24 decision to Ohio as 1 ½-point home favorites last Tuesday. They gave up a late touchdown in the final minute the previous week to lose 30-29 to Bowling Green as three-point home favorites.
--Buffalo sophomore quarterback Zach Maynard has a 17/13 touchdown-interception ratio in his first year as a starter. His favorite target has been senior WR Naaman Roosevelt, who has 70 receptions for 954 yards and nine TDs. However, Roosevelt is "out" tonight after aggravating a nagging knee injury against Ohio.
--The MAC has suspended Buffalo team captain and starting offensive tackle Andrew West for one game stemming from an altercation with an opposing player during the loss to Ohio.
--Totals have been a wash for Buffalo (5-5) but the ‘over’ has hit in each of its last three games. The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the RedHawks, 3-1 in their home contests.
--Kick-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
**Central Michigan at Ball State**
--LVSC opened Central Michigan (8-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) as a 20-point favorite. However, as of early this morning, most spots had CMU favored by just 14-15 points. A total had yet to be released. The line move might be due to the look-ahead situation this spot represents for the Chippewas, who will host Northern Illinois next Friday to decide the West division (assuming the Huskies win this weekend at Ohio).
--Central Michigan bounced back from a 31-10 loss at Boston College to slam Toledo 56-28 as a 17 ½-point home ‘chalk’ last Wednesday. Senior QB Dan LeFevour enjoyed another monster performance, shredding the Rockets for six touchdowns (four rushing, two passing) and 341 passing yards.
--LeFevour already owns nearly every MAC record for QBs. He has completed better than 70 percent of his passes this season for 2,189 yards with an 18/5 TD-INT ratio. LeFevour also has a team-high 541 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs.
--It has been a long and hard fall from grace for Ball State (1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS) in 2009. This time last year, the Cardinals were undefeated and en route to the MAC title game. Now they are mired in a slump that’s resulted in 11 losses in their last 12 games dating back to last year. Making matters worse, starting QB Kelly Page went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Tanner Justice will get the starting nod in his absence.
--Ball St. is winless in five home games, including a 23-16 loss to New Hampshire. The Cardinals are 1-3 ATS at home, finally hooking up their backers in their last home outing, a 20-17 loss to Ohio as six-point home ‘dogs.
--Ball St. has been a double-digit underdog three times this year, cashing tickets in each instance (at Auburn, at Temple and at No. Illinois). Likewise, CMU is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite, although we should note that each of those covers came at home.
--The Chippewas are 3-1 both SU and ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings between these MAC adversaries. With that said, Ball St. won last year’s contest by a 31-24 count as a six-point road favorite.
--The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for CMU, 5-1 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for the Cardinals, 4-1 in their road games.
--According to weather.com, there's a 40-percent chance of rain in Muncie tonight with temperatures expected to dip into the low 40s.
--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--I spoke to LVSC oddsmaker Mike Seba on Monday and he gave out these tentative lines for the SEC Championship Game and a pair of potential BCS matchups: Florida -4.5 vs. Alabama Florida -3 vs. Texas Texas -2.5 vs. Alabama
--South Carolina has lost three consecutive games and will take a 6-4 record into its regular-season finale at home against Clemson. However, the Gamecocks hooked up their backers in Saturday’s 24-14 loss to Florida as 17-point home underdogs. They are now 7-2 ATS when listed as double-digit ‘dogs on Steve Spurrier’s watch. And speaking of Spurrier, he was in a very nice rhythm calling plays all night against the Gators. Unfortunately for USC, Stephen Garcia’s interception on the first play of the fourth quarter with the ‘Cocks in field-goal range sealed their doom.
--The ‘under’ is cashing tickets at a 7-2 clip for Illinois.
--Boise St. QB Kellen Moore has to be a Heisman finalist. The sophomore QB has an incredible 32/3 TD-INT ratio and has the Broncos sporting an unbeaten record.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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