Editor's Note: Judd Hall has been heating up the college gridiron this season. He's back with a strong play on the New Mexico Bowl. Click to win!
Casual college football fans are all waiting for the tail end of the bowl season when there are several big games on the agenda. Gamblers, on the other hand, have had to wait a full two weeks to finally get some games to sweat out. The betting public will be doing just that as the Bulldogs take on Wyoming (6-6 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) at the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque.
Don’t feel bad if you did a double take when seeing the Cowboys make a bowl game. This is the same team that went 4-8 just the year before. Not a bad opening campaign for the former offensive coordinator for Missouri, Dave Christensen.
The first order of business for Christensen this year was to throw out the old read-option offense that was in place for Wyoming last season and install a spread attack. There was a marked improvement as the Cowboys went from scoring 12.7 points per game in 2008 to 16.9 this year. While that is a good start, you have to realize that only ranked 111th nationally.
I guess we shouldn’t be so shocked that the ‘Boys are scoring so little when they’re ranking 86th on the ground (128.0 yards per game) and 103rd in passing offense (170.7 YPG).
Wyoming has hitched its offense to true freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. The youngster from San Jose, California has completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,752 yards and seven touchdowns. That doesn’t sound like much, but the fact that he helped guided the ‘Boys to at least 29 point five times this season (all wins, by the way) is not bad…especially when you consider the Cowboys scored more than that just once in 2008.
Something else the Cowboys are doing well with is not giving the ball away. Wyoming has coughed the ball up just 13 times in 2009. That’s helped them rank 20th in the country in turnover margin. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Dave Cokin believes this could be a key for the ‘Pokes in pulling off the upset. “Wyoming has been a disciplined team with the ball this year and that will help them against the Bulldogs. That is, of course, provided that they can sustain drives.”
What could prove to be Wyoming’s undoing is the fact that they can’t move the chains when they need to do it. The ‘Pokes are 102nd in the nation on converting third-down, cashing in 33.9 percent of the time.
Fresno State (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) doesn’t have any problems on offense this season, gaining 435.9 YPG on the attack this season to rank 19th nationally. The bulk of that yardage came from the legs of Ryan Mathews.
Mathews had been sidelined much of the last two seasons with injuries. However, Mathews has stayed healthy all year long and been extremely productive. He was the nation’s best running back, picking up 1,664 yards and 17 touchdowns during his junior campaign.
Ryan Colburn has also proven that he can help the Bulldogs move the ball through the air, when needed. He has thrown for 2,333 yards through the air with 18 scores and a 60.2 completion percentage.
Both teams do have one thing in common in the fact that they don’t have the best defenses to face top talent. Fresno State faced off with four teams that were either in the Associated Press Top 25 or in a BCS conference (Wisconsin, Boise State, Cincinnati and Illinois), giving up an average of 449.5 yards per game. Although that most likely won’t come to be an issue against Wyoming’s attack. The Cowboys have faced five squads (Texas, Colorado, Utah, BYU and TCU) in the same fashion and allowed an average of 457.6 YPG.
Fresno State went 2-2 SU and ATS when facing those teams in the Top 25 and BCS conferences. Wyoming, on the other hand, was 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in those spots.
Most of the betting shops have taken notice of the perceived mismatch by making the Bulldogs 11-point favorites with a total of 55. You can take the Cowboys to pull off the upset for a plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350). While that line shouldn’t surprise anyone, it does have the capability of moving.
“There's been a lot of movement to that line already,” says betED’s sportsbook manager, Randy Scott. “It opened at 11, then dropped to 10 ½ and was quickly bet to 11 ½ and up to 12. It since has been bouncing on and off 11 ½ and 12. I don't think the line will go beyond the 12. If anything, I suspect the line will settle back to the opening number 11 by game day.”
Scott concludes, “Also, we should see a drop in the total. Currently it's sitting at 55 and there are already signs of it dropping elsewhere. It could drop as low as 53.5 or 53 by game time.” BetED has Fresno State as a 10 ½-point “chalk” with a total of 55 at press time.
Cokin has also mentioned that this game might be a battle of emotions. “Fresno State can easily look at this being just a regular season matchup after finishing its season on Dec. 5 at Illinois. The Bulldogs could believe that this is a let down of a game after playing so well at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t been to a bowl tilt since 2004 and will be really up for this contest.”
While most of the public is hitting up the Bulldogs, they should be weary with the fact that they have gone 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight bowl games.
Wyoming hasn’t been a great team over the past few years, but they have given gamblers a reason to believe by going 5-7 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games posted as an underdog.
Fresno State has had its issues when playing against teams from the Mountain West, as evidenced by a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS mark since 1999. The Cowboys, however, are 21-13 SU and 19-15 ATS when facing off against the WAC going back to 1996.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
