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New Orleans Bowl preview
December 19, 2009
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
I f the Vikings and Panthers aren’t doing it for you Sunday night, you have another gambling option. Even if Minnesota’s trip to Carolina does work, you can get in on additional action for the New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome.
Just 24 hours after the Saints and Cowboys go at it in the Big Easy, Southern Miss and Middle Tennessee will collide at the same venue. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Golden Eagles as six-point favorites with a total of 58.
As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Southern Miss (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) listed as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total either at 58 or 58 1/2. Bettors can take Middle Tennessee (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) to win outright for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).
Larry Fedora’s team has won four of its last six games, cashing tickets at a 5-1 clip during that span. The regular season ended on a disappointing note when East Carolina beat the Golden Eagles by a 25-20 count. Nevertheless, Southern Miss hooked up its backers as a 6 ½-point road underdog.
Since losing back-to-back games to Troy and Mississippi State, Middle Tennessee has won six in a row both SU and ATS. Although each of those victories came against Sun Belt competition, bettors should note that five of the wins came by 17 points or more.
MTSU is averaging 41.2 points per game during its six-game surge. The offense has thrived under the direction of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who enjoyed big-time success at Troy before last year’s disaster in Auburn. Remember, Franklin was made the scapegoat and fired by Tommy Tuberville after a loss to Vandy last October.
Junior quarterback Dwight Dasher has been the catalyst for MTSU’s offense. Dasher led the team in rushing with 953 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He also beat opponents with his arm, throwing for 2,627 yards with a 21/14 touchdown-interception ratio.
With senior running back Phillip Tanner going down in Week 2 with a season-ending injury, sophomore RB D.D. Keyes emerged to enjoy a breakout campaign. Keyes produced 822 rushing yards and three TDs on 127 carries during the regular season. That was good for an outstanding 6.5 YPC average.
So. Miss returns to the New Orleans Bowl where it beat Troy 30-27 in overtime as a 4 ½-point underdog last season. Just like last year, the Golden Eagles won’t get inside the Superdome until game day. Since the field was being painted Friday for the Saints’ Saturday night game, So. Miss was forced to practice at Tulane. However, Fedora wasn’t concerned about it.
“We had a great practice,” Fedora told the Hattiesburg American. “We were going to try to go over to the Superdome, but it didn’t work out. It was no big deal. Our guys came out and practiced hard and got a lot of polish in. We’ll get our walk-throughs (Saturday) and we’ll be ready to go.”
This will be the last hoorah for senior running back Damion Fletcher, who became the school’s all-time leading rusher (by 700-plus yards) as a junior. Fletcher has added on to those numbers in 2009, rushing for 937 yards and eight touchdowns on 202 carries. For his career, he has 5,224 rushing yards and 44 TDs.
So. Miss looked like it might be in trouble when sophomore QB Austin Davis (10/2 TD-INT) went down with a season-ending injury in October. But Fedora simply plugged in junior QB Martevious Young and the offense kept clicking.
Young has played so well that there’s certainly going to be a QB controversy this spring and/or next fall. He has connected on 58.2 percent of his throws for 1,590 yards with an incredible 13/1 TD-INT ratio. Young also brings a scrambling dynamic to the mix, as evidenced by 70 rushing yards and one TD in a 50-43 loss at Houston. He also had 59 rushing yards in a 44-34 home win over Tulsa.
When Young looks to throw, he has one of the country’s most underrated wideouts to look for in sophomore DeAndre Brown, a four-star recruit who chose So. Miss over LSU. Brown has 43 receptions for 720 yards and seven TDs. In his last two games, Brown has 10 receptions for 280 yards and two TDs.
For those of you who don’t follow C-USA or the Sun Belt much, let’s give you a better idea about these teams by going over who they faced in non-conference play. So. Miss played on the road against a team from the Big 12 and the Big East, in addition to hosting an ACC school.
The Golden Eagles beat Virginia 37-34 but never threatened to cover the ‘chalky’ 13 ½-point number. They lost 35-28 at Kansas but took the cash as 11 ½-point road underdogs. Finally, Fedora’s bunch lost a 25-23 heartbreaker at Louisville as 2 ½-point road favorites.
As for MTSU, it opened the season by losing 37-14 at Clemson as an 18 ½-point road underdog. In Week 2, the Blue Raiders bounced back to beat Memphis from out of C-USA 31-14 as one-point home underdogs. Next, they went to College Park and knocked off Maryland for a second straight year. MTSU edged the Terrapins 32-31 as a seven-point road underdog.
Rick Stockstill’s team hosted Mississippi St. on Oct. 17, but the Bulldogs bullied their way to a 27-6 victory as a five-point road favorite.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--If the 30-17 loss at UAB as an 11-point favorite stands out to you when looking at the Golden Eagles’ ATS log, don’t put too much emphasis on it. That’s because Fletcher and Brown both missed the UAB game nursing injuries.
--So. Miss has had all sorts of kicking problems this year, prompting Fedora to think about going for two-point conversions and bypassing field goals. The Golden Eagles have missed 10 extra points this year and have a failed PAT in six straight games.
--Earlier this week, Florida head coach Urban Meyer told Pat Dooley of the Gainesville Sun that reports of Ole Miss defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix being offered the same position at UF were false. Meyer did acknowledge speaking with Nix, who is staying with the Rebels. Meyer continues to look for the coach who will replace Charlie Strong, who is now the head coach at Louisville but will coach for the Gators in the Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati.
--Auburn RB Eric Smith has been ruled academically ineligible and will not play in the team’s bowl game against Northwestern.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
If you wish, you can follow Brian Edwards on twitter at Vegasbedwards.
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