Arnold Palmer - Matchup Bets
March 6, 2019
By Joe Williams
The PGA TOUR heads to the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Fla. this week
The course at Bay Hill measures over 7,400 yards and is a Par 72 setup. Over the years players who have won this event have posted double-digit under-par scores. Despite the length, it isn't a necessity to be a big hitter off the greens, but approach shots are very important, and those handy with the irons will excel. Those who are solid in Par 5 Scoring are golfers to target this week, as well as those who rank highly in the Ball Striking categories. And, as always, once a golfer gets onto the green you'll want a finisher, and not someone who isn't handy with the steel on the dance floor.
Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.
Lucas Glover (-120) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (-110): As mentioned above, Ball Striking is an important category for DFS players and bettors to focus upon this week, and no one does it better than the South African Oosthuizen. He is No. 1 on tour so far on the 2019 season in the Ball Striking category. However, he did miss the cut at this event last season, and a tournament matchup with Glover is a tough one. This one is going to be razor-thin, as Glover has had some success in the past at Bay Hill, including a seventh-place showing in 2014. However, he was 49th last season in the event, but he enters on a roll with back-to-back Top 10 finishes, and he has finished 17th or better in seven of his eight events this season. Strike while the iron is hout with the former Clemson standout Glover.
Patrick Reed (+115) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-145): Fleetwood is favored heavily in this event, and for good reason. He has been very consistent both in the United States and overseas across the past 18 months. He has made two appearances at Bay Hill, finished 26th and 10th. Since 2015, Reed has just one appearance at Bay Hill, and that was last season when he triumphantly returned to Bay Hill to finish seventh. Still, he hasn't been much of a long hitter, but he has solid iron play, he's a decent scrambler and he can get it done with his putter. So far this season he has played in seven events, making the cut in every tournament, and he hasn't finished lower than 25th at any point this season. He's a good value at plus-money.
Zach Johnson (-105) vs. Byeong Hun An (-125): Johnson has been very comfortable this event, and this week marks his 15th consecutive appearance at Bay Hill dating back to 2005. He has missed the cut just once, posting four Top 10 finishes, including a third-place showing in 2009. While he was just 26th last season, and 66th in 2017, he was fifth in 2016 and ninth in 2015. His vast knowledge of the course, and the fact he is 22nd in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 33rd in Scoring Average gives him a leg up on Hun An. Johnson has also been pretty handy with his long irons, and that will help him stay ahead of the South Korean.
Bryson DeChambeau (-115) vs. Jason Day (-115): This is a prime matchup, but DeChambeau is playing so very well. He has a game which works for Bay Hill, and that was definitely the case last season when he finished as a runner-up. The unorthodox DeChambeau ranks 16th in Ball Striking, and he is third on TOUR in Par 5 Scoring Average (4.40), which makes him a very attractive play. While Day won this event in 2016, he has been a very marginal 22nd and 23rd over the past two seasons. DeChambeau was second last season, and he has been tremendously consistent this season.
Last week: 0-2-2 (-205)
This season: 0-2-2 (-205)
Top 20 Finish - Bryson DeChambeau (-185): DeChambeau's game is tailor-made for Bay Hill, as explained above. It should be a slam-dunk that DeChambeau posts a Top-20 finish.
Top 10 Finish - Bryson DeChambeau (+140): Betting on DeChambeau this week is a wise move. His game is complete, and there is no one area he has struggled in this season.
Top 20 Finish - Lucas Glover (+167): Glover has had tremendous success over the years at Bay Hill, and he is rolling into this event with a fourth at last week at The Honda Classic, and seventh in Pebble Beach in the previous event. He has been 17th in seven of his eight events this season, yet the odds are against him to finish in the Top 20 this week. Perhaps it's thinking that he is due for a stinker, but at this price he is a tremendous value.
Top 20 Finish - Hideki Matsuyama (-120): Matsuyama rolls into Bay Hill with four straight Top 20 finishes, including a third-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open and ninth-place outing in the Genesis Open. He is a bomber off the tee, he is 20th in Scoring Average on TOUR, and he is 24th in Ball Striking, too. All of the signs point to a big performance from Matsuyama, as his solid roll continues.
Last week: 0-2 (-215)
This season: 0-2 (-215)
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 20%
off Daily Pick packages, SAVE 10%
off a Live Odds Pro subscription, and receive access to up to 1,000
Member Plays each month!