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PGA Championship – Matchup Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
3 minute read
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The PGA TOUR readies for the second major of the 2019 schedule, heading to the PGA Championship at Bethpage State Park's Black Course in Farmingdale, New York. The course was also the site of the U.S. Open in both 2002 and 2009.

PRIME MATCHUPS

Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.

Byeong Hun An (-105) vs. Emiliano Grillo (-125): Hun An missed the cut at the RBC Heritage, and he withdrew in the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship in his most recent appearance due to a neck injury. However, assuming he is 100 percent healthy, he is going to make some noise at Bethpage Black. He ranks fifth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and he is solid on his approach shots as well, ranking first overall in SG: Around the Green. As far as Grillo is concerned, he is solid in those areas, too, but he ranks 208th on Tour in Putts Per Round (30.02), and that will be the big difference this week.

Sungjae Im (-130) vs. Billy Horschel (even): Just not feeling Horschel this week at Bethpage Black. A few good areas to target this week will be SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Around the Green, and he ranks 102nd or worse in each category. When he gets to the dance floor he might struggle, too. He checks in 166th in Putts Per Round (29.37), while Im is 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green, 47th in SG: Around the Green and a respectable 89th in Putts Per Round (28.88), or nearly a half-stroke better. That's two full strokes of difference over the course of four rounds.

Webb Simpson (-135) vs. Ian Poulter: Simpson is favored over Poulter heading into the second major of the season, and for good reason. Simpson has made the cut in 11 of his 12 outings this season, and he ranks 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, while ranking eighth in Sand Save Percentage. The latter will be of particular concern, as this course has plenty of bunkers in play. The ability to quickly get out of danger and snap right back on track will be key.

Tiger Woods (+130)vs. Dustin Johnson (-160): Tiger as a moderate underdog in a head-to-head matchup? I'll take it. After his stirring Masters win, he certainly looked like he is back.

Tiger Woods (+115)  vs. Brooks Koepka (-145): Again, Tiger as a 'dog? Yes, he hasn't played since being fitted for a green jacket, so rust is a concern. However, Koepka's inability to finish on the green is why Tiger is a strong value here. Koepka ranks just 134th in Putts Per Round (29.21), and he is 88th in Driving Accuracy Percentage, too.


1st Round Matchup - Byeong Hun An (-165) vs. Andrew Putnam (+135): Both of these golfers have struggled out of the chute in Round 1, posting a scoring average of 71.00 or higher in the opening round. However, see above, as An checks off plenty of boxes needed for success at Bethpage Black.

Last event (Byron Nelson): 1-3 (-250)
This season: 12-21-2 (-1140)

OTHER BETS

Top 20 Finish - Webb Simpson (+260): Simpson is worth a roll of the dice simply based on his SG: Tee-to-Green and Sand Save Percentage numbers.

Top 20 Finish - Scott Piercy (+450): Piercy is just playing with a lot of confidence right now, so he is worth a roll of the dice as a small-unit bet. He is 13th or better in three straight outings, including a runner-up at the Byron Nelson in his most recent appearance.

Top 20 Finish - Byeong Hun An (+475): Hun's good work in the SG: Tee-to-Green category, and his No. 1 ranking in the SG: Around the Green department makes him worth a look.

Last week: 0-4 (-470)
This season: 13-24 (-683)

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