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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Wednesday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
The post position draw for the Preakness Stakes (G1) is this afternoon and barring any last-minute surprises it appears there will be seven foes taking on Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Justify.

Derby runner up Good Magic has been confirmed as a starter, which makes the race a much better wagering race than without as the rest of the field appears on paper to be overmatched.

Justify is the heavy favorite at -280 in the latest Preakness betting odds at [...] while Good Magic is at +260.

Every other horse in the race will go off at a price including Derby alums Lone Sailor (+3500) and Bravazo (+3000).

I have an eye on the weather and things are not looking good for Baltimore this week. There is a 90% chance of rain today, 70% on Thursday, 100% on Friday and 80% on Saturday.

Now let’s not forget the Louisville forecast a couple of weeks ago. It was supposed to rain on Oaks Day and be clear on Derby Day and the exact opposite happened.

As I have said many times if the weathermen had to wager on their forecast like we do the ponies, most of them would be living inside a cardboard box.

Latest Preakness Betting Odds via [...] :
Bravazo +3000
Diamond King +4000
Good Magic +260
Justify -280
Lone Sailor +3500
Quip +1500
Sporting Chance +3500
Tenfold +4000

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Wednesday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package, which will give you a full month of reports from Belmont Park, my Best Plays Report each weekend, my Black Eyed Susan Day and Preakness Day reports From Pimlico and the Belmont Stakes Festival from Belmont Park.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md $75,000 (1:30 ET)
#7 Acorn Street 6-1
#6 Blooming 5-1
#4 Equal Rights 8-5
#1 Supercommittee 3-1

Analysis: Acorn Street set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth last out for a $50,000 tag over good ground. I am hoping we are on the turf but there is rain in the forecast. Our top pick was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 36% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She was in the mix in her first two starts on turf, a third and a fourth. She is out of a Horse Chestnut mare that has dropped one turf winner. The barn is 22% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Blooming makes her debut for the Thomas barn that is 19% winners with firs timers. She is out of the stakes winner May Night ($355,568) who has dropped two foals to race, both winners on turf and both are stakes winners—Red Rifle ($1 million) and Notte Doro ($240,685). A steady string of works on the morning tab and Johnny V takes the call.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (5:16 ET)
#2 Heavy Meddle 8-1
#5 Rectify 8-1
#6 Sal the Turtle 10-1
#7 Benevolence 5-2

Analysis: Heavy Meddle goes turf to dirt here after dueling for the early lead and hanging around until late in a third-place finish beaten a length at this level over good ground. Two back off a four-month layoff the colt made a mild late rally to finish third on the main track at Aqueduct. He beat state bred Alw-1 foes over the main track here and has landed in the exacta in all three trips here. Decent value if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line. He has a solid off track pedigree.

Rectify prompted the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against Alw-1 company in his first start off a five-month layoff. He makes his second start off the bench and for Nevin who has been sending out live runners at the meeting. The six-year-old is bred to handle the off going and has a second in two trips on wet tracks in his career.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 2,5 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #2 Battle Ready 8-1
R3: #1 Gia Michael 10-1
R5: #7 Groton St. Scout 12-1
R6: #8 Geladeira 20-1
R6: #1 Emblazoner 10-1
R8: #2 Heavy Meddle 8-1
R8: #5 Recitify 8-1
R8: #6 Sal the Turtle 10-1
R9: #7 Street Cat Sam 15-1

Good luck today!

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