Every other horse in the race will go off at a price including Derby alums Lone Sailor (+3500) and Bravazo (+3000).
I have an eye on the weather and things are not looking good for Baltimore this week. There is a 90% chance of rain today, 70% on Thursday, 100% on Friday and 80% on Saturday.
Now let’s not forget the Louisville forecast a couple of weeks ago. It was supposed to rain on Oaks Day and be clear on Derby Day and the exact opposite happened.
As I have said many times if the weathermen had to wager on their forecast like we do the ponies, most of them would be living inside a cardboard box.
Latest Preakness Betting Odds via BetOnline: Bravazo +3000 Diamond King +4000 Good Magic +260 Justify -280 Lone Sailor +3500 Quip +1500 Sporting Chance +3500 Tenfold +4000
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Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
Analysis: Acorn Street set the early fractions and weakened to finish sixth last out for a $50,000 tag over good ground. I am hoping we are on the turf but there is rain in the forecast. Our top pick was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 36% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She was in the mix in her first two starts on turf, a third and a fourth. She is out of a Horse Chestnut mare that has dropped one turf winner. The barn is 22% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Blooming makes her debut for the Thomas barn that is 19% winners with firs timers. She is out of the stakes winner May Night ($355,568) who has dropped two foals to race, both winners on turf and both are stakes winners—Red Rifle ($1 million) and Notte Doro ($240,685). A steady string of works on the morning tab and Johnny V takes the call.
WIN: #7 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (5:16 ET) #2 Heavy Meddle 8-1 #5 Rectify 8-1 #6 Sal the Turtle 10-1 #7 Benevolence 5-2
Analysis: Heavy Meddle goes turf to dirt here after dueling for the early lead and hanging around until late in a third-place finish beaten a length at this level over good ground. Two back off a four-month layoff the colt made a mild late rally to finish third on the main track at Aqueduct. He beat state bred Alw-1 foes over the main track here and has landed in the exacta in all three trips here. Decent value if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line. He has a solid off track pedigree.
Rectify prompted the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against Alw-1 company in his first start off a five-month layoff. He makes his second start off the bench and for Nevin who has been sending out live runners at the meeting. The six-year-old is bred to handle the off going and has a second in two trips on wet tracks in his career.
WIN: #2 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 2,5 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R2: #2 Battle Ready 8-1
R3: #1 Gia Michael 10-1
R5: #7 Groton St. Scout 12-1
R6: #8 Geladeira 20-1
R6: #1 Emblazoner 10-1
R8: #2 Heavy Meddle 8-1
R8: #5 Recitify 8-1
R8: #6 Sal the Turtle 10-1
R9: #7 Street Cat Sam 15-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup. A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line. Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010. While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll. Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day. Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots. Join Mike daily with top picks from Aqueduct or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
In the 2015 Belmont Stakes Jerry dominated races 8-11 by hitting a $4,400 Pick 4, 3 Daily Doubles, 2 Pick 3's and calling American Pharoah as the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years. Jerry is always looking to repeat his 2012 Triple Crown success, when he selected the winning horses for The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes. Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis. Join Jerry daily with picks from
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