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Horse Racing

At the Gate – Sunday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
The Canadians were not very hospitable to us yesterday as we whiffed on both Grade 1 races on the Saturday card at Woodbine.
 
My top pick in the Canadian International (G1) was Spring Quality and he looked as if he might be a threat as they turned for home, but he weakened to finish fifth.
 
The winner was Euro invader Desert Encounter, who rallied from off the pace to score the upset and return $18.20. It was the eighth winner that came from overseas in the last nine years in the race.
 
Thundering Blue completed an all Euro exacta that returned $95.10. I thought Khan might have an upset shot among the Euro shippers, but he struggled and finished 10th at 25-1.
 
I went with Euro invader Golden Legend in the E.P. Taylor (G1) and we got a nice price at 11-1, but her late run came up ¾ of a length short of another Euro runner in Sheika Reika, who paid $14.10 and topped the $2 exacta that paid $126.00.
 
One lesson to take out of the two races is it is not always the obvious Euro shipper that wins these Grade 1 turf races. It is something to keep in mind for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Belmont Park daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Report.
 
My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my eight strongest plays from Belmont Park and Keeneland.
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .
 
Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
 
BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:30 ET)
#3 Carom   3-1
#4 Identity Politics   4-5
#6 American Rule   6-1
#1 Duncastle / 1a Tiz Morning   9-2
 
Analysis: Carom has the best shot of upsetting the imposing Brown runner in here. The colt stalked the early pace, came with a wide bid and could not finish in a fifth-place finish last out off a 2 1/2-month break. His best figure came here in his debut going seven furlongs here he finished evenly in a fourth-place finish. He is the first foal tor ac enough of a Pulpit mare, a $185,000 purchase.
 
Identity Politics was pinched back coming out of the gate last out at 9-5, stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish going 5 1/2 furlongs. He ran second two back going this distance behind repeat winner Greek Alphabet, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next start while the third-place finisher End of Spirit graduated next out then beat Alw-1 foes at Keeneland. The $350,000 Ocala purchase is out of a Distorted Humor mare that has dropped one other foal to race no winners to date. He looks tough here and may get the day off to a very chalky start.
 
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 3,4 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6,7
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
 
BEL Race 9 Md $40,000 (5:50 ET)
#1 Lets Dance Some Mo   8-1
#7 Quietly Quick   2-1
#4 Smart Throb   4-1
#5 Burkey's Babe   10-1
 
Analysis: Lets Dance Some Mo adds blinkers here for Mott as she returns off a two-month break. She dropped in for a tag for the first time last out, tracking the early pace and weakening to finish fifth. The runner up Truly Courageous came back to graduate in her next outing on Sept. 22 and then ran a decent fourth against state bred Alw-1 foes. The filly is by Uncle Mo out of an Always a Classic mare that has dropped five winners and two have won on turf. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.
 
Quickly Quick tracked the early pace over yielding ground and finished gamely for the runner up spot in her first go for a tag. She makes her third start of her current form cycle for Clement who has been sending out live runners at the meeting. She has shown she can handle ground with some give to it and is a legit threat as the likely favorite. She is out of a Langfuhr mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date.
 
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,4,5,7,10
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:
 
KEE Race 8 Alw $69,000N2L (4:57 ET)
#8 Bobby's Wicked One   6-1
#3 Bye Bye Birdstone   15-1
#1 Mo's Mojo   5-1
#2 Curate   8-5
 
Analysis: Bobby's Wicked One makes his first start since April where the colt tracked the early pace, was bumped on the backstretch and finished evenly in a third-place finish. The runner up Crosswalk was a next out winner versus Alw-1 foes. He returns here off the break for the Stall barn that is 30% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. Solid works on the morning tab.
 
Bye Bye Birdstone broke his maiden last out on turf at Ellis Park and returns to the main track here. He ran well going six furlongs on dirt at Ellis, his other two trips in the slop and at a mile and his first two were behind repeat winners. A good breeze over the main track at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27 and this guy is going to be a generous price.
 
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 3,8 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,7,8
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R5: #2 Sir Peanut   8-1
R6: #2 Malibu Strings   20-1
R6: #3 Jo’s Bold Cat   8-1
R9: #1 Lets Dance Some Mo   8-1
R9: #5 Burley’s Babe   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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