BC – Distaff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 4:16 p.m. ET
The History
In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008. Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014. In 2016, Beholder beat the undefeated Songbird by a nostril in the “mother of all Distaffs,” joining Goldikova as the only other horse to win tree Breeders’ Cup races.
Favorites: 14 for 34 (41%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? Forever Unbridled was retired earlier this year.
The Best
The runner-up in this last year, Abel Tasman looks to rebound from a dreadful off-the-board finish in the G1 Zenyatta at Santa Anita last time out as the 1-10 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert, who mentioned that a bug was going through his barn two days before the race on the Horse Racing Radio Network.
Last year’s G1 Kentucky Oaks winner at Churchill Downs, Abel Tasman has raced just four times since this event last year, and started it off with a clunker, after getting bothered at the start, in the G1 La Troienne at Churchill on this Oaks Day before getting back to her winning ways when she romped in the G1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day in the Big Apple.
On Travers Day, she renewed her rivalry with Elate when she took advantage of a speed biased course, going gate to wire after body checking her foe in deep stretch of the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in a race eerily reminiscent of their G1 CCA Oaks stretch battle last season. Unlike last year where it seemed like great race-riding by her rider, Mike Smith, many felt this incident, a solid bump in deep stretch after a patented Smith left-handed whip, warranted a disqualification but the result stood.
Speaking of disqualifications, Monomoy Girl is a bad Parx stewards call away from being undefeated in what will likely turn out to be a three-year-old filly championship season when her number was pulled down last out in the G1 Cotillion when she crossed past and allegedly herded, a practice that often goes unpunished in 2018, Midnight Bisou through the stretch.
Before the incompetence back at Parx in September, Monomoy Girl won all five of her starts, all but one against G1 competition, across the eastern half of the U.S. this year for trainer Brad Cox.
After starting the season by winning the G2 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds in an uncharacteristic, well-off-the-pace manner, Monomoy Girl won the Ashland by daylight at Keeneland in gate-to-wire fashion.
In this year’s Kentucky Oaks, Monomoy Girl overcame post 14 and a bumping incident in deep-stretch to prevail by a half-length before rallying from third to take the Acorn at Belmont one race after Abel Tasman’s romp. Before the Cotillion, she led every step of the way in the CCA Oaks under regular rider Florent Geroux.Midnight Bisou finally got the better of Monomoy Girl, albeit with the help of the stewards, when she finished just a neck behind in the Cotillion before being awarded the victory.
Earlier this year, when in the Bill Spawr barn in California, Midnight Bisou won three in a row, including the G1 Santa Anita Oaks before finishing third when widest of all over an inside, speed-biased course in the Oaks. After that event, citing a lack of divisional races out west, she was transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen.
In Asmussen’s care, Midnight Bisou made quick work of just three rivals in the G2 Mother Goose at Belmont before a runner-up finish in the CCA Oaks. She appeared primed to win the G1 Alabama off of that effort but failed to negotiate the 10 furlongs and finished a well beaten third.
It’s worth noting that John Velazquez will ride in the Distaff with regular pilot Mike Smith opting to stick with Abel Tasman.
The Rest
Blue Prize returns to arguably her favorite racetrack while riding a three-race win streak that was capped off by her first G1 tally in the Spinster at Keeneland last out where she ducked out severely through the stretch before righting herself to win by a bit less than a length. Earlier this season, she captured both the G2 Fleur de Lis and G3 Locust Grove over this strip.
Wow Cat won the G1 Beldame in her third start since coming to the States by over three lengths most recently at Belmont after finishing second in the G3 Shuvee and third in Personal Ensign at the Spa. A Chilean bred, she was perfect in eight starts last season in her homeland.
Vale Dori posted a huge upset in the Zenyatta when she added blinkers for the first time in her career at the age of six and stablemate Abel Tasman failed to fire. It was her first win in well over a year
Wonder Gadot will be making her eleventh start of the year and sixteenth overall with a break in her career. She beat the boys in her native Canada in the Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales, the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown before foregoing a chance at the sweep to run in the G1 Travers where she finished last of 10. Earlier this year, she was second in the Kentucky Oaks and most recently third in the Cotillion. Like fellow sophomore fillies Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, this will be her first try against older fillies and mares
Champagne Problems won two in a row, including the G3 Groupie Doll at Ellis Park this season, before a pair of runner-up efforts behind Blue Prize in the Locust Grove and Spinster.
La Force has finished second in three consecutive G1 races in SoCal – Beholder Mile, Clement Hirsch and Zenyatta - losing each of her last two by less than a length, despite still being eligible for a second level allowance contest. In all, she’s finished second six times in 10 dirt starts.
Verve’s Tale is looking for her first win of 2018 off of show-dough finishes in the Shuvee and Beldame. Winner of the G3 Comely at this distance as a three-year-old in 2016, she’s hit the board in seven of nine tries at the trip.
Mopotism has just one win, the G2 La Canada at Santa Anita back in January, this season from six starts. She was second in the G2 Santa Maria and third in both the G1 Santa Margerita and Fleur de Lis. She has second preference in the F&M Sprint,
Fourth in the Spinster, Fuhriously Kissed is looking for her first stakes score and has first Preference in the F&M Turf, a race she will likely get into.
If I’m Right…
I think her effort in the Cotillion, despite appearing to be one of her best speed-figure wise, showed that Monomoy Girl figures to be a bit vulnerable as she gets to the end of a long campaign.
Live Longshot
Champagne Problems has vastly improved in her four-year-old season. She’ll get some pace, has hit the board in seven of nine starts over the course and should be rolling late at 15-1 or so.
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