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Horse Racing

BC – Filly & Mare Sprint

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 2 and Saturday, November 3 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY at VegasInsider.com. To purchase Anthony Stabile Pick Packs, Click to win!

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 3 for 11 (27%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $135.40 (Bar of Gold, 2017)
The champ is here? Bar of Gold was retired after her record upset.

The Best

This race took a hit when Dream Tree was declared about a week out for trainer Bob Baffert who still figures to send out the race favorite in Marley’s Freedom.

After making her first two starts for Richard Baltas and next seven for Bob Hess Jr., Marley’s Freedom arrived in the barn of the Silver Haired Fox this past spring. She’s undefeated in three starts since and is looking for her fifth consecutive win.

After winning the G3 Desert Stormer at Santa Anita by better than seven lengths and G2 Great Lady M by just over a length at Los Alamitos, Baffert shipped her to Saratoga for the G1 Ballerina, where she overcame the bias to roll by over three lengths with a quick burst of speed from mid-pack while widest of all. This will be her first start in 10 weeks.

Selcourt is the last horse to defeat Marley’s Freedom and will be making her first start since that score in the G2 Santa Monica at Santa Anita over seven months ago for trainer John Sadler who is 0 for 41 in Breeders’ Cup races.

Selcourt has hit the board in her six career starts that span 20 months. She rides a three-race win streak into this having won the Kalookan Queen and G3 Las Flores before the Santa Monica.

Finley’sluckycharm waves the local flag for Bret Calhoun as this mare is stabled at Churchill Downs for most of the year and has won six of her seven starts when racing beneath the twin spires.

Earlier this season, Finley’sluckycharm won the G1 Madison at this distance at Keeneland, the peak in what has been a roller-coaster year. She won the G2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga two starts back but was off the board in the G1 Humana Distaff over this strip and last out in the Ballerina. She may be a bit more effective at slightly shorter distances.

The Rest

Golden Mischief was purchased privately by Juddmonte Farms and turned over to Brad Cox before the season started. She’s won four of six this season including her last three, capped off by a gutsy win by a head in the G2 TCA at Keeneland most recently.

Mia Mischief is winless in three starts since taking the G2 Eight Belles in Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill on the front end. Fifth after dueling through brutal fractions in the G3 Victory Ride at Belmont, she was second in the two sophomore filly stakes at Saratoga, the G1 Test where she lost by just a neck to Separationofpowers and the G2 Prioress when she was beaten by over four lengths by Dream Tree.

Skye Diamonds finished fourth in this event last year and finally found the winner’s circle for the first time in six starts this year when she captured the G3 L.A. Woman at Santa Anita last out. Third in both the Las Flores and Santa Monica to begin the year, she was off the board in the Humana before finishing second in the Great Lady M and third in the G3 Rancho Bernardo, a pair of SoCal races she won last year.

Miss Sunset is a two-time stakes winner at the distances, including last year’s G2 Raven Run at Keeneland and missed by a nose in the Madison back in April. She’s won three of her seven starts this year, all against restricted stakes company in California. She finished fourth as the beaten 8-5 favorite in the TCA most recently.

Chalon just missed in the TCA when runner-up for the second consecutive year and has finished in the exacta in nine of her 12 starts, including the four she’s made this year after a private purchase before the season began.

Shamrock Rose upset this season’s Raven Run at over 18-1 just two weeks ago in what was her first win on the dirt. She won a pair of stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Woodbine in her prior two starts over their synthetic surfaces. This will be her first start against older fillies and mares.
The defection of Dream Tree has led to trainer Wesley Ward rethinking his situation with Happy Like a Fool, who has first preference and is in the body of the Sprint. Fifth in the TCA, she won the G3 Miss Preakness by over six lengths in the slop at Pimlico two starts back in mid-May.

Eleventh last year, Highway Star returns off her only win in six starts this season just two weeks ago in a New York-bred stakes. She’s won three of six starts and was second in last year’s Ballerina as well as this year’s G3 Bed o’ Roses at the distance.

Kirby’s Penny, a former claimer, won the G3 Vagrancy at Belmont three starts back from just off the pace before finishing a well-beaten third in the Honorable Miss. Last out, she dueled on the front end of the G2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont before settling for third, beaten just a length.

Anonymity was second in both the Rancho Bernardo and L.A. Woman most recently. Overall, she owns three wins and three runner-up finishes in six starts.

Stormy Embrace has hit the board in seven of her eight starts at seven panels and counts the G2 Princess Rooney at Gulfstream two starts back amongst her three wins at the trip. A seven-time winner in all, she returned from a two-month layoff to finish a disappointing third as the prohibitive 1-2 favorite in a Florida-bred stakes nearly two months ago

Dream Pauline is perfect in two starts that came eight months apart. She broke her maiden last December at Aqueduct by six lengths before returning in August at Saratoga to win an entry level allowance contest by two lengths.

Bixby Lou is seeking her first win on dirt as her two victories have come on turf.

In order, Dream Pauline and Bixby Lou would need defections to draw into the field.

If I’m Right…

A few of these fillies appear to be need-the-lead types so we should see a really fast pace. This one is ripe for a closer to pick up the pieces.

Live Longshot

Should she get in, Dream Pauline could take advantage of being lightly raced and from the apparent speed duel that should develop. If not, we’ll try Stormy Embrace.


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