Pitcher Win Total Best Bets
February 28, 2018
If you’re one of those baseball nutjobs that’s completely enthralled by starting pitching, then I have the perfect betting board for you. BetOnline.ag has listed regular season win totals for starting pitchers in the MLB player futures section of the sportsbook. Let’s grease those stitches!
Most of these odds are split evenly, and are priced in the -110 and -115 range depending on the pitcher. You can bet on most of the big names, and I’m sure our busy bees in the odds making hive will be producing even more bets for this board. Severino, Greinke, Syndegaard, Kershaw and many more are already up and running so check out our MLB player futures to see the whole board.
These are some of my favorite plays on this awesome board, and I have to write about Shohei Ohtani because it would be sacrilegious not to.
Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs) – UNDER 13.5 Wins
The Cubs sure spent a lot of money to land Darvish, who will replace Jake Arrieta as the go-to mound master for this club. The Cubs are an extremely competitive team. So why the low mark? Darvish has been chased off the mound a ton in recent years and hasn’t earned 13 wins since the summer of 2013. He only won 10 games split between the Rangers and Dodgers last season. I like Darvish, and staying in the National League is the smart move for him.
Darvish should perform strongly against the NL Central, which has some truly terrible teams at the bottom of the standings but I’m not completely sold that that he’s really a franchise pitcher. His team will win a lot of games that he starts, but he won’t earn the w’s for himself. I see a lot of early departures for Darvish this coming summer.
Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) – UNDER 10.5 Wins
Oh boy, here we go. Shohei Ohtani’s extremely long and agonizingly slow migration to the majors has finally come to fruition, and the whole baseball world is excited to see if this kid can deliver the goods. Since somehow winning the sweepstakes for the multi-talented prospect, the Angels have maintained that he’ll be used more so as a pitcher than a batter. That’s fine I guess, but there’s no way they can guarantee that this will always be the case.
Ohtani could be great, but he could also be historically average. There’s no way to tell. This guy hasn’t hurled the stitches at major league hitters until this spring, and there’s no possible way that we can safely say that the Angels won’t switch gears and designate Ohtani as a hitter halfway through the season.
Let’s be clear: Ohtani is a very interesting player. But right now that’s all he is. Yu Darvish made his way to the league in 2012 and notched 16 wins, but this is a much different circumstance. Ohtani is pitching against a devilishly good division. So while the fun bet is to take the OVER, it simply relies on too many variable for my liking.
Corey Kluber (Cleveland Indians) – OVER 16.5 Wins
This one seems the most straightforward on the entire board. Kluber is the reigning American League Cy Young winner, and notched 18 wins during an undeniably great season. The Indians hit a stroke of bad luck in the playoffs with the Encarnacion injury, but all engines will be go for when Cleveland takes to the field in the spring. Kluber will be center stage for another, brilliant run.
Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants) – OVER 15.5 Wins
This is a play-it-safe type of bet. Bumgarner is a god. We all know that. But the San Francisco Giants left a lot to be desired. Then the club literally swung the for the fences in acquiring Andrew McCutchen, who’s the exact type of multi-use sparkplug that this lineup needed. There are some really tough calls at the bottom of the order, but McCutchen-Posey-Pence-Belt-Longario and Panik as the opening six should give Bumgarner the chance to make up for what was essentially his worst season.
Bumgarner has posted records of 18, 18 and 15 wins from 2015-17 so this mark is right where it should be. When he is on, and his team is winning, there’s no stopping him. How you attack this MLB player prop depends greatly on how you feel about the Giants, and I’m optimistic about their 2018 projections. Remember that this is more so a bet on Bumgarner than the Giants anyways.
Justin Verlander (Houston Astros) – OVER 15.5 Wins
Nothing against Verlander at all. I love him and I’m so happy that he finally earned the storybook season his talent so very much deserved. There’s no doubting that Verlander can absolutely decimate the National League through a full season. He went 5-0 SU in his five starts to end the season. A lot of people will talk about how Verlander is on the wrong side of his peak, but I’m willing to bet against that grain. This guy is just too good to fall off a cliff like that.
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