Who's Hot and Who's Not
June 11, 2018
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Week of June 11th
Last week we debuted this piece discussing the prospects of the Washington Nationals 'under' run, the Miami Marlins struggles with starter Jose Urena on the hill, and two WNBA teams in the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx where the former was a great money earner and the latter hadn't cashed a point spread ticket yet.
Well, since that piece went up, the Connecticut Sun stayed hot even with losing their first game of the year the following day. Connecticut finished the week with a 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS record) though with the lone ATS win coming against the aforementioned Minnesota Lynx. That was yet another loss for the defending WNBA champs who did manage to get their first winning ATS ticket a few days earlier, albeit by a single point.
For the two MLB teams mentioned, Miami got their first win with Urena on the hill the following day (7-4 over St Louis) and managed to have a solid .500 record (3-3 SU) the rest of the week. Urena's second start of the week was another defeat, as bettors going back to fading Miami with him on the hill ended up getting rewarded once again.
Meanwhile, Washington had a light week with only five games on the schedule, and after cashing another 'under' ticket to make it 10 straight – thanks to having Max Scherzer on the hill – last Tuesday, the Nats followed that up with three straight no-doubt 'overs' where we saw 13, 14, and 12 runs scored. The week ended with a surprising 2-0 home loss to the Giants with Scherzer on the hill once again, so looking at the low side of the total in Washington games when Scherzer starts is a must.
Streaks are made to be broken and last week we saw three of the four teams mentioned in this piece snap their respective streaks the next time out. Will that be the case again this week? I'm not sure but less discuss a few of the streaking teams in sports today.
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MLB – Teams on the “Left Coast” (AL/NL West squads)
If you are looking to back some of the hotter teams in baseball right now you'd better steer your eyes westward as it's that division in both leagues that have some surging squads. In the AL West we've got Seattle leading the way with an 8-2 SU record in their last 10 games (12-4 SU last 16), followed closely by Houston (7-3 SU last 10), and the L.A Angels (7-3 SU last 10).
L.A and Seattle begin a three-game set in the Pacific Northwest tonight so something will have to give there, and given Seattle's tougher schedule after this tough series (seven with Boston, three with the Yankees) following this Angels series, the Mariners could be the best candidate for a dramatic downturn in the coming weeks.
Over in the NL West we've got the L.A Dodgers surging back into the race with a 7-3 SU mark over their last 10 games, a number that can be stretched out to a 17-6 SU run over their last 23 games. It's those type of runs many have expected from L.A all year, and with a brief two-game interleague series against the lone AL West team not on a good run – Texas (3-7 SU last 10) – good things could be in store for the Dodgers again early this week.
San Francisco owns the best 10-game mark though of any NL West team though at 8-2 SU, and they do have a big series with those Dodgers this upcoming weekend. But we've also got Arizona (7-3 SU last 10) and even San Diego (7-3 SU last 10) making noise in this division, so keep an eye on those teams as well.
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MLB – Teams on the “Right Coast” (AL/NL East squads)
The East division in both leagues have some powerhouse squads with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals and Braves all having a great first few months of the year, but the teams from those divisions that everyone knew would be in “tank mode” this year appear to have hunkered down in the basement of thier division.
Miami continues to be bad in the NL, and with a 3-7 SU record their last 10, and with a 6-15 SU mark when you stretch things out further, this is one team that should be on everyone's fade list. This week doesn't start out well for them either as they host the surging San Francisco Giants with Madison Bumgarner on the hill for SF in Game 1 tonight.
The New York Mets managed to snap an eight-game losing streak with a 2-0 win over the Yankees on Sunday night baseball, but this is another team that should be considered a strong fade. Tanking was not really part of the plan for the Mets this year, but key injuries have hit them hard and with them being a team that's so reliant on the HR ball to score, cold stretches are going to happen.
Over in the AL, it's the Baltimore Orioles (2-8 SU last 10) and Tampa Bay Rays (1-9 SU last 10) bringing up the rear as nobody wearing an Orioles jersey can be happy these days. Baltimore is already 24.5 games out of 1st in the division and we haven't even hit Fathers Day yet. That's downright embarrassing and at 19-45 SU, backing the Orioles on the ML is something bettors do at their own peril. Oddly enough though, the Orioles have already seen significant line movement come their way tonight at home against Boston in what is one of the more puzzling moves of the day.
Tampa Bay also begins the week at home against an AL East division rival with the Toronto Blue Jays coming to town. The Blue Jays just swept Baltimore in a four-game set over the weekend, but despite that, they aren't a very good team and historically have always had issues playing at Tropicana Field. If there was one of these struggling teams I'd look to flip it around soon, at least in terms of getting a few wins over the next couple of days it would be this Tampa Bay team. And quite frankly the Rays better find a way to win their series with Toronto, because on deck they've got the Yankees, Astros, and Yankees again as their next three series'. Yikes!
12-3 L15 Totals, 21-11 +1,063 Run
51-33 +1,663 Run, +3,145 TY
8-2 Last 10 MLB Selections
27-13 L40 Over/Under Plays
31-14 L45 Guaranteed Plays
2-0 +225 L2, +1,735 This Year
12-6, +654 L18 Guarantees
4-1 G-Plays, 9-5 Picks, +2,033 TY
10-5 L15 Guaranteed Plays
12-7 L19 Picks, +2,246 Overall
28-15, +1,250 L43 Selections
9-4 L13 G-Plays, 14-7 L21 Picks
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