Monday's Best Bet
April 15, 2019
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Monday MLB Best Bet
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
It hasn't been the start to 2019 that Colorado Rockies fans were hoping to see from their team, as Colorado begins the week tied for the fewest wins in all of baseball (4), and are the only team to remain winless at home (0-5 SU). Continuing their road trip in California tonight may be a positive in that regard, as they visit a Padres team that's been playing well of late. A hot opponent may not be what Colorado wants to see, but with the record they've got, pretty much everyone is better than the Rockies at the moment.
YouWager.eu Odds: Colorado (+145), San Diego (-160); Total set at 7.5
When San Diego went out and landed Manny Machado in free agency, the selling point was always centered around the idea that the Padres were still a year or two away from seriously competing. But three weeks into the season, San Diego sits with a two-game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West, and have only dropped one of their first five series' overall. Two of those four series victories have been taking three of four games against division rivals as well (San Francisco and Arizona), as they've become a more consistent offensive team that puts up 3.76 runs per game.
The wealth of young prospects this organization has stockpiled during the past years of futility are finally paying some dividends, and with the bulk of those guys comprised in their pitching staff, San Diego still knows how to win close, low-scoring games. Overall it's been a huge plus for the Padres to seemingly be ahead of schedule, but at the same time, we are still less than a month into the MLB season and it's hard not to have thoughts that they are playing a bit over their heads too. Knowing what the organization expects from their team in terms of long-term trajectory, the latter can come up as a very real outcome.
But markets can only have their prices based on what's gone on so far, and in that regard, the Padres and Rockies are at two opposite ends of the spectrum right now.
It hasn't all been poor play for Colorado, as injuries have hit them hard as well, as guys like David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, and Ryan McMahon are all currently on the shelf. Throw in some injuries in their starting rotation – one of which will be making his season debut tonight in Anthony Senzatela – and a poor opening stretch to the year doesn't really look as bad as it seems. Losing eight straight before getting a complete game, shutout performance from German Marquez yesterday to snap that run was a nice plus though, and the Rockies are hoping that they can at least earn a split in this short two-game set with the Padres.
Now, while Colorado is a tough team to back these days given the injuries and their record, I'm still not convinced the Padres should be priced as they are tonight.
San Diego has only been priced in a -160 favorite range three times this season and all three came in their first five games of the year. The Padres put together a 2-1 SU record in those contests, beating San Francisco both times, but the last time they were favorites in this range it was an ugly 10-3 home loss to Arizona. That's not to say a similar result is in the cards for the Padres tonight, but Colorado as a team led the majors in hits and runs scored against southpaw pitching a year ago, and while their lineup is quite different from 2019, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon have had great days against Padres starter Joey Lucchesi in the past, and if they end up starting the charge, the rest of the Rockies bats may not have too much trouble following suit.
With about 70% of the market backing San Diego tonight, according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, you can understand based on records and recent play for both teams why that would be the case. But in terms of actual price, the Padres do look rather overvalued at this number, as I don't think you can expect this team to keep their heads this far above the clouds with their play. The reality is, San Diego is still a very young team on both sides of the ball, and while their pitching staff may rank 9th in MLB in terms of team ERA, there is not one team in the top 12 of that category that's allowed more total hits (133) or runs against (67) then San Diego has.
Eventually numbers like that manifest themselves into the loss column, and with a Colorado team that's looking to build any kind of momentum after a great performance on Sunday, the Rockies odds are giving this team just too little credit. With a returning starter in Senzatela taking the bump, the rest of the Rockies could get an added confidence boost from that alone, and with San Diego starter Joey Lucchesi having a track record of struggling against division rivals – the Padres are 3-12 SU in his last 15 divisional starts – grabbing the plus-money odds on the Rockies is where I'm looking tonight.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Colorado +145
9-2 Over/Unders, 16-3 This Season
5-0 L2 Days, 6-0 +616 L6 G-Plays
6-1 L7, 12-3 Streak, 10-3 G-Plays
2-0 Yesterday, 12-6 +648 Run
8-2 +665 Win Streak, 5-0 G-Plays
6-1 Run, 11-4 Picks, 6-2 Totals
7-2 L9 G-Plays, +1,551 Picks TY
7-3 Picks, 15-5 G-Plays, 18-8 Totals
7-1 +632 G-Plays, 6-1 +532 Picks
6-2 L8, 13-5 Run, 20-8 +1,245 L28
4-1 +450 L5, 10-4 +695 L14 Picks
4-0 L2 Days, 2-0 Guarantees
7-1 L8 Guarantees, 19-12 L2 Days
9-5, +390 Record Last 2 Days
6-1 L7 Picks, 9-2 L11 G-Plays
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