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NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, March 5

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read

The NBA regular season continues with a loaded nine-game slate this Tuesday — headlined by a nationally televised doubleheader on TNT as Celtics vs Cavaliers tips off the action at 7:30 p.m. ET, and then Suns vs Nuggets takes center stage in the late window at 10:00 p.m. ET.

Read along for our top three NBA best bets and expert picks for Tuesday, March 5.

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NBA Best Bets | Expert Picks for Tuesday, March 5

Celtics vs Cavaliers

by Michael Crosson

The Cavaliers and Celtics are two of the top-3 teams in the Eastern Conference standings at the moment. However, they certainly didn’t climb to the top by ramping up their pace of play – highlighted by Boston and Cleveland ranking 18th and 22nd in pace on the season, respectively.

With that said though, the total for this contest is still way too low, in my opinion.

The Celtics rank 3rd in the league in scoring at 121 points per game, and that number continues to rise as the season progresses, highlighted by Boston averaging 127 points per game since February 2 – while scoring 116+ points in 10 of their last 11 contests, and they hit 125+ points in seven of those 11 outings.

Push comes to shove, however, Cleveland is the main reason that this total is so low. The Cavaliers rank 18th in scoring at 114 points per game, and that number has been on the decline recently. The Cavs have scored 110 points or less in five of their last seven games, and it’s only gotten worse in the absence of Donovan Mitchell in their latest two affairs – averaging just 104 PPG against the Pistons and Knicks in their last two.

I don’t fully blame the Cavs for their recent downtick in the scoring department though. They’ve drawn matchups against the Bulls (2), Magic, 76ers, Wizards, Mavericks, Pistons, and Knicks in their last eight games – so half of those games were played against teams that rank bottom-5 in the league in pace.

Rooting for points in a matchup between these teams may feel like a losing battle – especially with Mitchell sidelined, and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis listed as questionable. Cleveland and Boston both rank top-4 in the NBA in defensive rating and points allowed per game – and they both rank in the bottom-half in pace.

However, this number is still too low for a pair of offenses that average a combined 235 points per game on the season. I’m taking the over in this one.

Pick: Over 215.5 (-110)

Suns vs Nuggets

by AAA Sports

Phoenix Suns +9 (-112)

We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great "situational" release. Phoenix will be desperate to snap a two-game slide following a humbling 118-110 loss to OKC as a 4.5-point favorite. That was the Suns third straight ATS loss.

Note though that Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a home favorite, and it's also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row.

Additionally the Suns play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after a 119-111 home loss to the Nuggets back in early December, and note that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Denver has yet to lose since the All Star break, and it's covered in every game but one of those. But with Boston coming to town on Thursday night, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead spot. Look for Phoenix to take advantage!

For more daily expert predictions, check out our NBA Free Picks page and our NBA odds!

Magic vs Hornets

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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