2024 NBA Finals Odds, Betting Trends: Everything You Need To Know

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

NBA Finals odds are coming more into focus, as the playoffs get rolling. The looming question: Will anyone stand in the way of the clear-cut two best teams?

The Boston Celtics remain atop odds to win the NBA Finals. Right behind them are the defending champion Denver Nuggets. Then there's a sizable gap to the next group of teams.

Here's everything you need to know about 2023-24 NBA Finals odds: action, movement and betting trends. Check back regularly for updates, and use our BetMGM bonus code to get more when you wager.

NBA Finals Odds

Strain Brew

It was the calf strain heard 'round the world. On the final Tuesday of the regular season, Antetokounmpo fell to the court late in the third quarter of a home game vs. the Boston Celtics.

He was helped off the court, and there were concerns the Bucks star might have an Achilles injury. But for the moment, it's a strain, and he's sitting the final three games of the regular season.

Prior to the injury, Milwaukee was the +850 third choice on BetMGM's NBA Finals futures odds board. Boston was +185 chalk and defending champion Denver was No. 2 at +320.

"The Giannis injury definitely had an impact on the Bucks' pricing. We have since moved out to +1300," BetMGM trader Hal Egeland said before the NBA's play-in round. "There hasn’t been any confirmation that he’ll be back for the playoffs. But even if he is back, I can’t imagine he’ll be 100%."

However, Milwaukee has proved resilient. Antetokounmpo missed Game 1 against the Indiana Pacers, but the Bucks rolled 109-94. Still, Milwaukee lost Game 2, again without Giannis, and slipped to the +2500 eighth choice to win the NBA title.

"It goes without saying that the Bucks realistically only have a shot with a healthy Giannis," Egeland said. "It’s unfortunate for us. The Bucks would have been a great result for BetMGM. Of the teams with a legitimate shot at the title, the Bucks would be our best result."

More Movers

With the Bucks sliding out to +1600 in odds to win the NBA Finals, a few teams saw their prices shorten, most notably in the Eastern Conference. Boston solidified its favorite status, nudging from +185 at the end of the regular season to +140.

The Philadelphia 76ers initially moved from +2500 to +2000 on the Giannis news. The Sixers have Joel Embiid back in the fold, after he missed eight weeks with a knee injury.

After the seventh-seeded Sixers won their play-in game against Miami, BetMGM moved Philly all the way into +1400. But after a Game 1 loss to New York, the 76ers fell back to the +2500 ninth choice. Then Philadelphia lost Game 2 and stretched out to +4000.

The Sixers won Game 3 and adjusted to +3000 in NBA Finals futures odds.

The New York Knicks went from +6000 to +5000 in the wake of Giannis' injury. Prior to Game 1 against the 76ers, New York was +4000. Now, with a 2-1 first-round lead, the Knicks are into +1700 in NBA Finals futures odds, the sixth choice.

"Giannis' injury caused caused a shakeup across the entire market," Egeland said.

West Coast Bias

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors were both in the play-in round. Both teams were trouble spots for BetMGM, as public tickets and dollars piled up on LeBron James and the Lakers, and on Stephen Curry and Co.

"The Lakers and Warriors will never be a great result for us," Egeland said, again before the play-in started. "If we had to pick one to advance, it would be the Lakers. Our make/miss playoffs market is the difference there. We have much more money on the Lakers to miss the playoffs and the Warriors to make the playoffs.

"In terms of Finals liability though, they’re pretty much equals. They’d be our two worst results, but that’s expected."

BetMGM got what it wanted, with No. 10 seed Golden State losing to No. 9 Sacramento in the play-in. So the Warriors liability is now gone.

There's a little dilemma, though: While the Lakers are a liability in the championship futures book, James generates a lot of betting interest in the playoffs. The book would like to see some of that money come in.

"We’d certainly like a bit of a run, but for my own sanity, a relatively early exit," Egeland said. "Ideally, [the Lakers] exit after one of the first two rounds."

No. 8 seed Los Angeles was the +4000 co-10th choice in BetMGM's NBA Finals odds when the regular season ended. The Lakers went to +2500 after a play-in win over No. 7 New Orleans.

But now facing a 3-0 series deficit against Denver, LeBron James and Co. are effectively finished. Los Angeles is +30000 (300/1) to win the championship.

Ticket Takers and Money Makers

When factoring in both digital betting (mobile/online) and retail action, Boston is No. 1 in both tickets and money at BetMGM. Denver and the L.A. Lakers are Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in both tickets and money. The Nuggets are the +220 No. 2 choice in NBA Finals odds.

"Other than the Lakers, we’ll be cheering against the Timberwolves and the Nuggets," Egeland said. "The T-wolves are actually our worst result to win the Western Conference. So if they happen to match up with Denver in the Western Conference finals, we’ll be Nuggets fans."

Minnesota is the +1600 co-fourth choice on BetMGM's NBA Finals odds board, along with Dallas.

Egeland sees the West as extremely competitive, creating a difficult path to the NBA Finals.

"I don’t think there’s a team in the West that I’d be surprised by, if they made a run. I think most people would agree that the Nuggets are the best team. But they won’t have any series that you can just assume they’ll win," Egeland said. "It feels like the Mavericks are the team everyone is afraid of recently. Their defense has vastly improved since making the deals at the deadline."

Dallas acquired forward P.J. Washington from Charlotte and center Daniel Gafford from Washington.

"Those didn’t seem like massive moves at the time, but the Mavs have become a well-rounded team, which I don’t think you could have said early in the year."

The fifth-seeded Mavs split the first two games of their first-round series against the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers. As noted above, Dallas is +1600 in odds to win the NBA Finals.

In the East, Egeland isn't expecting as much competition.

"It's completely the opposite. I’d be surprised if anyone other than the Celtics, 76ers or the Bucks make a run to the Finals," he said. "As mentioned before, the Bucks are only a real threat with Giannis. So if I’m picking a team in the East with some value, it would definitely be the 76ers.

"I think everyone would still take the Celtics in a matchup. But if there’s a team that can give them a run, I’d go with Philly."

However, as mentioned above, Philly trails New York 2-1 in a first-round series.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson