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Power Ratings - (1/9/14)

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Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Performance Ratings (As of 1/09/14)
Category Offense Defense Total Wins SOS
Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank Total Rank Current Rank
Minnesota 38 2 44 6 82 1 17 13 0.513 6
Indiana 61 14 24 1 85 2 28 1 0.488 20
Toronto 48 9 45 7 93 3 17 13 0.524 3
Portland 30 1 64 15 94 4 27 3 0.499 16
LA Clippers 43 5 54 11 97 5 25 6 0.511 10
Oklahoma City 50 10 47 8 97 5 27 3 0.513 6
Houston 39 3 62 14 101 7 23 8 0.512 9
San Antonio 66 16 37 2 103 8 28 1 0.514 5
Charlotte 69 18 41 3 110 9 15 16 0.479 26
Denver 44 6 67 17 111 10 18 12 0.509 12
Memphis 47 8 67 17 114 11 15 16 0.523 4
Sacramento 45 7 69 19 114 11 11 28 0.534 1
Chicago 74 24 42 4 116 13 15 16 0.485 21
Golden State 73 23 43 5 116 13 24 7 0.508 13
Miami 52 12 64 15 116 13 27 3 0.478 27
Atlanta 70 21 50 9 120 16 19 11 0.476 28
Washington 69 18 51 10 120 16 16 15 0.474 29
Phoenix 53 13 70 20 123 18 21 9 0.508 13
New Orleans 40 4 86 29 126 19 15 16 0.513 6
Cleveland 77 25 55 12 132 20 12 25 0.481 24
Brooklyn 51 11 82 27 133 21 14 20 0.495 18
Detroit 66 16 71 21 137 22 14 20 0.485 21
Orlando 82 28 56 13 138 23 10 29 0.498 17
Dallas 64 15 77 24 141 24 20 10 0.510 11
New York 69 18 72 22 141 24 13 23 0.494 19
LA Lakers 79 27 78 25 157 26 14 20 0.508 13
Boston 77 25 82 27 159 27 13 23 0.481 24
Philadelphia 92 30 73 23 165 28 12 25 0.485 21
Utah 71 22 95 30 166 29 12 25 0.530 2
Milwaukee 90 29 78 25 168 30 7 30 0.468 30


Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher. We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Biggest movers over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking:
DEN +7, SAC +7, WAS +5, BRO +3, DAL (4), NO (4), DET (6), ATL (7)

Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through yesterday's games (01/09), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish on:

Bullish: Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 4th consecutive week; Chicago for 2nd consecutive week; Denver, Memphis & Sacramento newly minted bulls.

Bearish: Phoenix for 4th consecutive week; Dallas for 2nd consecutive week.

Next let's dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 1/9/14)
Team Home Road
Minnesota 115.5 113.0
Indiana 117.1 112.6
Toronto 113.5 111.5
Portland 114.8 111.3
LA Clippers 114.9 110.9
Oklahoma City 114.9 110.9
Houston 113.8 110.3
San Antonio 113.6 110.1
Charlotte 111.1 109.1
Denver 111.5 109.0
Memphis 110.5 108.5
Sacramento 110.5 108.5
Chicago 110.8 108.3
Golden State 111.8 108.3
Miami 112.3 108.3
Atlanta 111.2 107.7
Washington 109.7 107.7
Phoenix 110.8 107.3
New Orleans 109.9 106.9
Cleveland 108.5 106.0
Brooklyn 108.4 105.9
Detroit 107.3 105.3
Orlando 107.2 105.2
Dallas 107.8 104.8
New York 106.8 104.8
LA Lakers 104.5 102.5
Boston 104.3 102.3
Philadelphia 103.4 101.4
Utah 103.3 101.3
Milwaukee 103.0 101.0


Lastly let's take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season's end:

Win Projection (As of 1/9/14)
Category SU Wins ATS Wins Overall
Team Home Road Home Road Projected Wins Rank
Minnesota 17 13 19 8 50.42 7
Indiana 28 1 23 2 58.80 1
Toronto 17 13 20 5 48.60 10
Portland 27 3 21 4 48.56 11
LA Clippers 25 6 22 3 53.50 4
Oklahoma City 27 3 19 8 53.03 5
Houston 23 8 18 13 47.04 12
San Antonio 28 1 19 8 58.75 2
Charlotte 15 16 20 5 36.20 20
Denver 18 12 16 17 43.24 14
Memphis 15 16 14 25 42.36 15
Sacramento 11 28 13 28 32.73 22
Chicago 15 16 14 25 33.98 21
Golden State 24 7 18 13 51.89 6
Miami 27 3 16 17 57.92 3
Atlanta 19 11 20 5 41.01 17
Washington 16 15 19 8 40.46 18
Phoenix 21 9 24 1 49.18 8
New Orleans 15 16 13 28 42.19 16
Cleveland 12 25 16 17 30.99 24
Brooklyn 14 20 16 17 28.75 26
Detroit 14 20 14 25 40.31 19
Orlando 10 29 15 22 29.38 25
Dallas 20 10 19 8 48.74 9
New York 13 23 15 22 43.90 13
LA Lakers 14 20 18 13 21.61 28
Boston 13 23 17 16 31.13 23
Philadelphia 12 25 15 22 22.11 27
Utah 12 25 16 17 20.13 29
Milwaukee 7 30 12 30 19.85 30


Of note from this matrix is the middle column - this entire matrix is sorted according to where the team's stacked up in the Performance Ratings above - with that mind we can see the top nine teams in performance are all within the top 8 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Houston - keep an eye on the Rockets making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play. Last week the only outlier we mentioned were the Raptors, whom we expected to go on a successful ATS run - they have now won 8 straight games against the #. This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 01/09 the playoffs would set up like this:

Western Conference

1) San Antonio 59-23
2) LA Clippers 54-28
3) Oklahoma City 53-29
4) Golden State 52-30
5) Minnesota 50-32
6) Phoenix 49-33
7) Dallas 49-33
8) Portland 49-33

Eastern Conference

1) Indiana 59-23
2) Miami 58-34
3) Toronto 49-33
4) New York 44-38
5) Atlanta 41-41
6) Washington 40-42
7) Detroit 40-42
8) Charlotte 36-46

  
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