Saturday Game 7's
May 2, 2014
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Atlanta (41-47) at Indiana (59-29)
Eastern Conference First Round
Game 7 - Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Indiana -6, Total: 186
After staving off elimination on the road Thursday night, the top-seeded Pacers will try to clinch their first-round series versus the Hawks in a decisive Game 7 on Saturday afternoon.
After allowing Atlanta to score 107 points on 50% FG (56% threes) in Game 5, Indiana played shutdown defense in Thursday's Game 6 by limiting its opponent to 88 points on 36% FG (26% threes) and prevailing 95-88. The Hawks had nearly as many turnovers (13) as assists (14), and lost both the edge in rebounding (47-44) and points in the paint (40-32). But Atlanta has not lost two straight games in these playoffs, and is 11-12 SU (11-11-1 ATS) in this series over the past three seasons. The Hawks are only 19-23-2 ATS on the road this season, but are 27-16-1 ATS (63%) with one day's rest. The Pacers may be the top seed in their conference, but have won two games in a row just once since March 18, going 9-12 SU (7-14 ATS) over their past 21 games. They are just 19-26 ATS (42%) with one day's rest, 26-32 ATS (45%) after an SU win this season, and 22-21-1 ATS (51%) at home.
Over the past three seasons, Indiana holds an 8-4 SU (6-5-1 ATS) advantage in this series. Both teams have negative betting trends for Game 7, as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (like Atlanta), after 1 or more consecutive Unders, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) facing an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games are just 49-94 ATS (34%) over the past five seasons, but the Pacers are only 11-25 ATS (31%) versus poor foul-drawing teams (24 or less FTA per game) in the second half of this season. While there are no significant injuries for either team, there is a chance that the Pacers could be missing reserve SG Rasual Butler -- due to a possible one-game suspension for stepping on the court from the bench during an altercation in Game 6.
The Hawks' poor shooting wasn't confined to just one player, as nobody on the team made more than half of his FG attempts in Thursday's loss. PG Jeff Teague (19.8 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3.8 RPG in series) was the only player to exceed 16 points, as he netted a game-high 29 points on 9-of-21 FG and 9-of-9 free throws. But Teague had only two assists in his 40 minutes of action, and will need to set up his teammates better for Atlanta to pull off the big upset on Saturday. PF Paul Millsap (20.2 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG in series) continues to be a beast in this series, carrying his team with 16 points, 18 rebounds (5 offensive), five assists and three steals in Game 6. But he made just 4-of-13 from the floor before fouling out. SG Kyle Korver (12.5 PPG, 41% threes, 5.7 RPG in series) did not attempt a shot from inside the three-point arc, finishing a lackluster 3-for-8 for nine points and four rebounds.
SF DeMarre Carroll (10.0 PPG, 52% FG, 4.8 RPG in series) also struggled, scoring a mere seven points (3-of-7 FG) with four boards in his 39 minutes, while posting a poor rating of minus-9. But PF Mike Scott (8.5 PPG in series) had the worst rating of Game 6 with a minus-15, and made just 2-of-9 shots, including 0-for-6 from three-point range. Scott had made all six of his shots, including 5-for-5 threes in the second quarter of Game 5. SG Louis Williams (9.7 PPG, 1.2 SPG in series) was the lone Atlanta player to make half of his shots on Thursday, connecting on 6-of-12 FG for 16 points, but he was bad in other areas with three turnovers, zero assists and a minus-11 rating.
SF Paul George (22.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 4.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) has carried the team in all facets during these playoffs. He didn't have his best game on Thursday with more turnovers (4) than assists (3), but still poured in 24 points and eight rebounds while posting a game-high rating of +19. PF David West (15.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.2 SPG in series) also scored 24 points in Game 6, including some big baskets late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. He finished the day with 24 points, 11 boards, six assists and two steals. The starting backcourt of SG Lance Stephenson (14.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG in series) and PG George Hill (12.7 PPG, 4.0 APG in series) also played well, as they have done throughout most of this series. Stephenson finished with 21 points and nine boards, while Hill chipped in 14 points and four assists. All-Star C Roy Hibbert (4.0 PPG on 30% FG, 3.2 RPG in series) continues to provide nothing for his team, posting his second consecutive scoreless game with just two rebounds and a minus-12 rating in his 12 minutes. The Indiana bench also needs to contribute more, tallying only 12 points on 4-of-13 FG (1-of-5 threes) in the Game 6 victory.
Memphis (53-35) at Oklahoma City (62-26)
Western Conference First Round
Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Oklahoma City -9, Total: 185.5
The Thunder look to advance to the next round with a Game 7 home win against the Zach Randolph-less Grizzlies on Saturday night.
Not only did Memphis lose Thursday's Game 6 at home on Thursday by a 108-84 score, but because PF Zach Randolph punched Steven Adams in the face during the defeat, Randolph has been suspended for Game 7. Another huge factor in this decisive game could be the health of Grizzlies star PG Mike Conley, who suffered a strained hamstring during Thursday's loss. Conley will play, but at much less than 100 percent. After being ridiculed by the local media, Kevin Durant responded with his best game of the series, pouring in 36 points with 10 rebounds. Coach Scott Brooks made a change in the starting lineup as he put Caron Butler in at the shooting guard rather than Thabo Sefolosha. That helped open up more space for Durant and Russell Westbrook to attack the rim, allowing the Thunder to score more than 100 points for the third time this series (2-1). The ability to attack the rim played a big role, as Oklahoma City was able to capitalize on its free throws by making 23-of-25 (92%). Memphis made just 19-of-28 foul shots (68%) in Game 6, and has shot below 70% FT in all three of its losses this postseason.
Although the Grizzlies are 14-7 ATS in this series over the past three seasons, including 9-3 ATS on the road, this team is an average 21-21-2 ATS away from home this season. They are 35-19 ATS (65%) when playing six or less games in 14 days over the past two seasons, but are 7-24 ATS (23%) after three straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers this season. The Thunder are 35-9 SU (24-19-1 ATS) at home this season, and 156-99 ATS (61%) versus poor pressure defensive teams (14 or less forced TO per game) under Brooks, but they are also 3-13 ATS (19%) after a game with 15 or less assists over the past two seasons. Memphis has done a great job all season long of controlling the tempo, and will have to do that much better in Game 7 for any chance to win this game.
The Grizzlies had done a great job of not allowing the Thunder to get confident throughout this series, but that was not the case in the Game 6 loss. Oklahoma City was able to shoot 49.3% from the field, and was able to do whatever it wanted in the open court with 17 fast-break points. Memphis made only 31-of-83 from the field (37%), including just 3-of-14 from deep. PG Mike Conley (15.2 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.5 RPG, 1.7 SPG in series) had his worst game of the series, scoring only five points on 2-of-10 FG with six assists and four rebounds. Memphis got a normal big night from the inside duo of C Marc Gasol (16.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) and PF Zach Randolph (18.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG in series), but did not get a lot of help from the perimeter. Gasol finished with 17 points, five rebounds and four assists while Randolph contributed 16 points and eight rebounds. Gasol will need to be much more of an offensive force with Randolph suspended for this game. SF Mike Miller (8.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in series) had a big performance in Game 5 (21 points, 5-of-8 threes), but could not get into a rhythm on Thursday night, and finished with only seven points on 2-of-6 FG.
Another big problem was the fact that Memphis could not slow Oklahoma City down from attacking the rim, as the team was able to block only one shot all game. With the way the Thunder love to attack the rim, the Grizzlies have to cause more problems, or this game could be over quick. PF James Johnson (6.3 PPG in series) gave the Grizzlies a strong performance off the bench with 15 points and five rebounds, and could be looked upon to play some more meaningful minutes in Game 7. If Conley is limited by injuries, then backup PG Beno Udrih (7.2 PPG, 2.0 APG in 16.3 MPG in series) will have to play a much bigger role. He finished with only two points and three assists in Thursday's loss.
SF Kevin Durant (29.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.7 BPG in series) was back to his old self on Thursday night, scoring his 36 points in many different ways. He was able to get rolling from the beginning, scoring 14 points in the first quarter. While Durant was the star of the night, PG Russell Westbrook (25.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 6.7 APG, 1.5 SPG in series) played one of his best games of the season and finished with 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists. He didn't force shots like he had previously done in the series, and ran the offense nicely and set his teammates up all night. After a quiet Game 5 (6 points on 2-of-7 FG), PG Reggie Jackson (11.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG in series) was big part of the offense on Thursday with 16 points (6-of-9 FG, 4-of-5 threes), and five rebounds.
The installation of SF Caron Butler (6.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG in series) to the starting lineup helped open up the driving lanes for the Thunder, allowing Durant and Westbrook more space to attack the rim. Butler contributed only seven points, four rebounds and three assists, but posted a +13 rating over his 29 minutes. The interior defense of the Thunder was impressive too, blocking 11 shots in the game, including four from PF Serge Ibaka (13.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG in series). Ibaka had a quiet game offensively though, scoring just eight points with seven rebounds. Rookie 7-foot C Steven Adams logged just 21 minutes in the first five games of this series combined, but made a big presence from the bench in Game 6 with five blocks in his 20 minutes of action. If the Thunder can get a big game from the bench, they will be in great position to finish off this series with a victory.
5-2 L7, 23-10 L33, +3,150 TY
30-14 L44 Totals, 60% +5,190 TY
20-9 L29 G-Plays, 34-14 L48 Picks
5-1 L6 Guarantees, 2-0 L2 Totals
13-5 L18 Totals, +1,653 This Year
9-4 Last 13 Guaranteed Plays
18-11 L29 Picks, +1,652 This Year
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