Adjusted Win Totals
February 22, 2018
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Did you miss out on the NBA Regular Season Win Totals futures betting in the preseason?
Well I have great news! BetOnline.ag has released a revamped board for the remaining season. Number have been adjusted to reflect the first half results. Below are my favorite totals to chow down.
You can see the whole board in its entirety by clicking here.
Toronto Raptors – OVER 58 Wins -110
Current Record: 41-16 SU (32-25 ATS)
The Raptors have played in a total of 57 games, so they have to win 18 of their next 25 remaining games. If their terrific end to the first half picks up where it left off, that shouldn’t be an issue. Toronto roared in to the break at 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS. All good stuff.
As I stated earlier this week, what steadies the Raptors is their unbelievable depth that boasts a rotation of 11-to-12 players. They’ll trim that down heading in to the playoffs because that’s way too many players to keep happy in the post season, but very few teams have been billowing momentum at a constant rate like the Raptors.
We can argue to the Canadian cows come home about how much of an actual contender they are, but the Raptors are always a great regular season team and this is by far the best squad they’ve had since Vince Carter left. They need 57 wins to set a franchise record, but 59 games is absurd. I’m all aboard.
Houston Rockets – OVER 63 Wins -110
Current Record: 44-13 SU (28-28-1 ATS)
Speaking of lofty totals, how about the Houston Rockets? When healthy, the Rockets are virtually unstoppable on a nightly basis. The only thing that’s tripped them up all season are niggling injuries to Chris Paul and a few others. At full capacity, the Rockets are clearly the best regular season team in the league and will go full pedal to get home court advantage against the Warriors in the playoffs. At 20-5 SU in their last 25 games since the return of Chris Paul, this team has all the makings of a 65-win season. All the accessory pieces to Harden and Paul are getting better. Like the Raptors, I’m not sold that this works in the playoffs but it’ll be fun for the next few weeks. Chase that OVER, fellas.
Los Angeles Lakers – UNDER 32.5 Wins -110
Current Record: 23-34 SU (30-27 ATS)
The Lakers can’t keep their nose out of the news these days, but that’s life when you’re arguably the most celebrated franchise in the league and have a gravitational force like Lonzo Ball in the house. The mercurial point man has been out of action since January 11th and is set to return this Friday against the Dallas Mavericks.
I don’t now if that turns around the teams fortunes. What’s good is that the lineup was consolidated to a certain extent, but there’s a war brewing between a pressure-cooked Isaiah Thomas and Lonzo Ball’s maniacal father. How long before the rest of the team just gets fed up with his antics, and being asked about him? This isn’t a roster of stalwart veterans who can just shrug this off. This is a very young team comprised of kids who think they know what’s about to hit this team.
It doesn’t feel like 10 wins in 25 games is a lot, but it could be a cavernous gap for this roster to close out. The Western Conference is super deep, and there are 10 teams who are vying for 8 playoff spots. The last five teams – which includes Memphis, Sacramento, Dallas and Phoenix – will be punching bags for the rest of the actual teams that matter.
San Antonio Spurs – OVER 48 Wins -110
Current Record: 35-24 SU (30-27-2 ATS)
By now you’ve heard the update on the eternally strange story concerning Kawhi Leonard. In a nutshell, he’s been cleared by doctors but is still seeking out medical advice from more specialists. Popovich has even admitted that Leonard may never come back at all, especially given that the tight window to get in to “playoff shape” isn’t a realistic environment for Leonard to re-establish a healthy leg.
San Antonio is on a perilous cliff right now. They’re the best defensive team by traditional metrics and are ranked second by advanced stats. That’s expected given the roster. But they’re in a tough spot in terms of generating points. The Spurs are ranked just 27th overall with 101.6 points per game. We all know that the Spurs are a great franchise run by the best coach of this generation, but this is a tough sell for this team to breach 50 games without their best player.
Wait a second…no it isn’t!
Want to know how low this adjusted NBA regular season win total is for San Antonio? The Spurs haven’t won less than 50 games since 1999. They’re not on a great pace, and the absolutely insane element of this is that they’re still ranked third in the Western Conference. All hail Gregg Popovich.
Phoenix Suns – UNDER 24 Wins -110
Current Record: 18-41 SU (27-30-2 ATS)
The hapless Suns have the worst defence in the league, a terrible offence that ranks third last in field goal percentage and a superstar of the future who remains a work in progress. It absolutely pains me to say that Devin Booker isn’t worth 7 wins in 23 games If you’re over analyzing this low hanging total, then the Suns need to win about 3 percent of their remaining games. They’ve won 4.4 percent over the balance of the year so far.
The tipping point in this market is divisional matchups. Having to play the brunt of their final games against teams like Golden State and the Clippers (and even the Lakers) is going to put them in a bad spot. Of all the bad teams right now, this is the team that doesn’t have a chance to get better. Too much youth, too much inexperience and no driver at the wheel.
And we all thought Brooklyn was going to be the worst team at the beginning of the season.
Hammer the NBA futures now before the action re-starts Thursday night with an awesome slate of games!
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