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Inside the Paint – Saturday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Friday’s Recap

Favorites posted a 4-2 straight up record on Friday but it was the underdogs that prevailed with a 4-2 mark against the spread. Outright 'dog winners were Sacramento (+8 ½, ML +375) over a short-handed Golden State squad and Miami (+2 ½, ML +125) getting revenge against the Lakers at the Staples Center. Totals ended up going 3-3 and outside of the overtime game in Toronto, the other five results were never in doubt.

Handicapping Out Loud

-- Similar to Friday, a lot of uncertainty on the board and only six of the 11 games had overnight lines posted.

-- The three teams (76ers, Raptors, Clippers) playing with no rest last night went 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU).

-- On Saturday the Mavericks (3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS), Warriors (7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) and Kings (4-10 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) will be facing back-to-back spots.

-- If you haven’t been following the NBA, one of the hottest teams has been Utah. The Jazz have won eight straight and 20 of its last 22 games. For our purposes, they club is 15-6-1 ATS during this crazy run.

-- Another team on a ridiculous run is Portland, who has ripped off 11 straight wins while covering 10 of those victories. Tonight’s game vs. Detroit looks like a little bit of a trap and a letdown could be coming since they play the Clippers in L.A. tomorrow before hosting Houston and Boston next week.

-- The Indiana-Washington and Minnesota-San Antonio matchups are the two best matchups to watch tonight. All four teams are neck and neck in their conference playoff races.  

-- As I mentioned yesterday, Golden State has conceded the No. 1 seed to Houston in the West. Even though the Warriors have won 12 straight against the Suns and they’re only -3, I wouldn’t bet on them or against them until the playoffs.

Fearless Predictions

Odds per [...]

Sometimes luck is needed and that was the case with last night’s team total winner on Toronto. That fortunate ticket pushed up to 6-1 over two days and our “Other Leans” drilled a 4-0 night, pushing that record up to 7-2. Is the letdown coming? On St. Patrick’s Day? Pace yourself today! As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Cleveland -6 ½ over Chicago

The Cavaliers have won all three meetings against the Bulls this season and I expect the sweep to take place tonight. Both clubs will be short-handed but I believe the key pieces for Chicago (Lavine, Dunn, Markkanen) will really affect its depth tonight. The Cavaliers have had much more success against teams below .500 lately, winning five of their last six with the one loss coming to the Lakers, who have been playing much better. With this being the last game of a six-game road trip, look for Cleveland to earn a win and salvage the journey with a 3-3 mark.

Over Sacramento-Utah 198

I’m going to take on the role of the “Politician” tonight and flip-flop on a solid Jazz total trend that helped this feature on Thursday against the Suns. That angle - Utah has gone 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) this season as a double-digit favorite and the ‘under’ has cashed in all five games with the Jazz only allowing 90.2 points per game over this stretch. So why the ‘over’ tonight? In this day and age of the NBA, a total under 200 points is rare and while Utah has slightly leaned to the low side (12-10-1) with totals listed in the 190s, Sacramento has been the complete opposite – 9-2 to the ‘over’ with totals below 200. Another angle – the Kings enter this game off back-to-back victories and they haven't won three in a row all season, going 0-3 in the first three opportunities while allowing 118, 108 and 113. Jazz will put up a crooked number and the Kings, who have been confident lately, should see the century mark themselves.

Other Leans and Projections

Houston -7

Memphis +6 ½

Under 213 Dallas-Brooklyn

Under 215 ½ Golden State-Phoenix

Saturday, Mar. 17
Rotation Teams Projection
501 Atlanta 102
502 Milwaukee 109
503 Indiana 105
504 Washington 104
505 Houston 120
506 New Orleans 108
507 Dallas 99
508 Brooklyn 100
509 Charlotte 114
510 New York 110
511 Denver 102
512 Memphis 100
513 Cleveland 115
514 Chicago 100
515 Minnesota 102
516 San Antonio 105
517 Sacramento 100
518 Utah 114
519 Golden State 107
520 Phoenix 100
521 Detroit 95
522 Portland 105

Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

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