2018 NBA Draft Odds
May 16, 2018
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2018 NBA Draft Odds – Winners and Losers
It’s time for a totally original concept – winners and losers from the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery! I am in the process of trademarking this so just be warned. Got to mark my territory.
The NBA Draft is by far my favorite non-Sports Sporting Event on the calendar, and if this year’s crop of talent is anything like last year’s then we are in for a treat. Coupled with an NBA off-season which promises to be absolutely crazy, the summer frenzy of basketball rumors and news is already spinning like mad.
Our oddsmakers have crafted a little betting board to grade the top four prospects on the board. DeAndre Ayton, Luca Doncic, Jaren Jakcson and Marvin Bagley III have carved out pretty astute cases as to why they’re the best of the bunch. After that, it’s a myriad of role players who will fill team needs.
You can bet on when certain players will be selected in the 2018 NBA Draft at BetOnline.ag right now, and it’s almost bonkers to me that Ayton wouldn’t be taken first overall.
Doncic presents value at +150 to be taken first overall and the Suns reportedly like them because of course they do.
1st Overall Pick
DeAndre Ayton 1/2
Luca Doncic 3/2
Jaren Jackson 12/1
Any Other Player 15/2
2nd Overall Pick
Luca Doncic 1/2
DeAndre Ayton 3/2
Jaren Jackson 12/1
Any Other Player 7/1
3rd Overall Pick
Marvin Bagley III 1/1
Jaren Jackson 5/4
Luca Doncic 6/1
Any Other Player 5/1
**Odds Subject to Change**
You can view the full odds here and, of course, place bets to make a fun night of dreams coming true even more enjoyable for yourself.
Without further adieu, here’s the lottery teams in order after the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery and my very biased opinions about their situations.
1. Phoenix Suns (Big Winners!)
The Phoenix Suns won the lottery, which everyone expected, and will pick first in the 2018 NBA draft for the first time ever. They have their pick of the litter so to speak, and at the top are two reportedly transformational players that could absolutely help them.
2. Sacramento Kings (Losers)
The Kings basically have to nail this pick, and if their history tells us anything it’s that they don’t have a good history of grading players overall. Sacramento drafted De’Aaron Fox in 2017 and the gutsy Kentucky product is entertaining as all hell, especially when paired with Buddy Hield.
This team owes nothing to nobody in 2018/19 in terms of contracts and will have well over $60 million to spend on players…and a lot of players who will require security blanket extensions.
So why is this pick a blessing and a curse? Largely because Sacramento sucks at drafting. Outside of Fox, who I think will be a starter but not an All-Star, the Kings have selected Marquese Chriss, Willie Cauley-Stein, Nik Stauskas, Ben McLemore, Thomas Robinson and Bismack Biyombo (they also drafted and traded Zach Collins in 2017 to the Blazers). It’s a horrible bunch. They haven’t really found a pick that they could really use since DeMarcus Cousins in 2010. Most of those first round picks aren’t even on the team anymore, and the ones that are barely serve a purpose.
The obvious choice for Sacramento is to go with a center again, and hopefully Phoenix’s crush on Doncic leads to Ayton landing at number-two. If Ayton goes first overall, then it’s a real toss-up as to what the Kings will do. I’m not at all sold on Doncic as a future All-Star but that’s just me.
Picking number two overall should never be a bad thing, but when you’re the Kings and it’s the NBA Draft, it’s hard to be optimistic. There’s a lot of pressure here, and that naturally leads to way too much overthinking. The age old joke is that if “Sacramento wants a rookie, he can’t be good”.
Compounding problems is that Sacramento is on the verge of a massive, franchise transformation. Hield and Fox are the foundation of that change and depending on who you ask, that’s not necessarily a good thing. A tough spot for a franchise that’s put themselves here despite trying to avoid tanking.
3. Atlanta Hawks (Winners?)
A top-three pick in a four-person draft is great. But this is Atlanta, a team that certainly lacks direction and lacks any serviceable firepower. They won’t get the player they need to get over the hump and compete for a playoff spot. But they’ll get a piece. That’s something I guess. Jaren Jackson or Marvin Bragley will be great gets in a vacuum, but neither are good enough to make Atlanta that much better than what they were last season. Basically, we can already fast forward through Atlanta’s season next year and put them back in the top-5 for the 2019 NBA Draft.
4. Memphis Grizzlies (Definite Losers)
The good news is that the last time that Memphis selected in this spot, they landed franchise point guard Mike Conley. The bad news is that Memphis is picking fourth. The franchise has committed a ton of money to the top of their food chain with Conley, Parsons and Gasol grossing over $80 million next season. So they do have money to spend, and either Bragley or Jackson will have the benefit of slipping in next to Gasol.
This sucks because the Grizzlies were supposed to be selecting in the top-two, and the two players at the top of the board are way better than the next two players after. It’s not a total crapshoot for Memphis, but it’s not what the fans deserve after a bottom feeding season from hell.
5. Dallas Mavericks (Maybe Losers)
Speaking of seasons from hell, how about the Dallas Mavericks having the odds worthy of the third choice overall dropping to fifth in a four person draft! What makes this spot even more treacherous is that it’s exactly where the draft begins to even out. All of these guys are high-value lottery tickets. Michael Porter would be a fine pick, but the Mavericks have long sought a superstar. You know what that means. Welcome to Dallas, Trae Young. If that happens, this lotto loss turns in to a victory lap for Cuban. Unless he’s as bad as people say he’s going to be. Or Atlanta takes him, which is totally possible. The next six weeks is going to be hell for Dallas Mavericks fans. Not that the last six months weren’t.
6. Orlando Magic (Neutral)
7. Chicago Bulls (Neutral)
Both teams landed where they were basically expected to, with each dropping a slot due to Sacramento leapfrogging from 7th to 2nd. It will matter who they take on the night of the 2018 NBA Draft. It won’t matter very shortly after that.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (Losers)
The Cavaliers shipped Kyrie Irving to the Celtics and in return they got Isaiah Thomas for a cup of coffee and one of many Brooklyn picks. The Nets began to play well above their ceiling early on, and while this pick had a legitimate chance of climbing in to a top spot, it landed exactly where it was supposed to according to Brooklyn’s record.
The thing about this pick is that it comes down to whether or not LeBron is staying put. The benefit of selecting this deep is that Collin Sexton is sitting right there. The bad news is that Sexton may or may not be effective at this level. What we know for sure is that the Cavaliers are not getting a player that will improve their chances against a surging Celtics team in the East. I mean, they’re probably not getting that kind of guy.
Oh and they’re already over the luxury cap, and need to re-sign LeBron James. Cleveland needed a glimmer of hope and they didn’t get it. Their dumb streak of lucking out in the lottery has come to an end (for now) and now they have to decide if that pick is worth enough to keep it themselves, or try and package it away for a player who can help them this instant.
9. New York Knicks (Still Losers)
The Knicks didn’t exactly get lucky with the news that Porzingis might miss the entire 2018/19 campaign, but they didn’t lose any ground in the lottery and can just draft a safe player. They can literally just take anyone. And they’ll probably screw it up. It’s the Knicks!
10. Philadelphia 76ers (Winners)
The pick from the Lakers is an embarrassment of riches for Philadelphia. What they probably don’t need is another young prospect to develop. What they might need is an asset in return. What this provides Philly is the flexibility to approach the off-season in a way that can help their team become the second best in the conference overnight.
11. Charlotte Hornets (Losers)
How did they screw up tanking? Charlotte can and will botch up this pick. I can’t wait.
12 and 13. Los Angeles Clippers (Winners!)
The thing about the 2018 NBA Draft is that trades are going to be bountiful. The value of a draft pick is often higher in a general manager’s imagination than it is in reality. The pick means nothing if you select a bust, or semi-useless player. But it can mean a lot in a trade. The Clippers received the 12th pick in the Blake Griffin trade to Detroit and also have their own. Having the opportunity to drain the countdown clock, assess their options and bang-bang the only back-to-back picks in this entire draft (so far).
14. Denver Nuggets (Losers)
All people are going to be talking about is how the Nuggets traded budding superstar Donovan Mitchell for Tyler Lydon and Trey Lyles last year. No matter who they pick at 14th, it’s never going to fill that void. Denver is always picking in an unusual spot, and their history has been erratic. For every Jokic, there is an Emmanuel Mudiay.
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