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NFL Rewind - Week 13

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Editor's Note: After 13 weeks of regular season action, "The SportsBoss" has hit 63% (55-32) of his NFL selections. Finish the year strong with his NFL Winners!

Week 13 has come and gone with little to get excited about as not much changed as far as performance metrics (besides Buffalo up from #24 to #16), playoff seeds, and final record projections. One area we have seen movement recently is the fight to get the #1 draft pick in 2013 - for many weeks during the middle portion of the season Jacksonville was the leader in that area - but recently, with the insertion of QB Chad Henne into their lineup, the Jaguars have played much better, while teams such as Kansas City, Oakland and Philadelphia continue losing. There is not the prize of Andrew Luck for next year's class - but it's certainly worth following.

Performance Ratings [PR] (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Weekly and Divisional Performance Ratings

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS
9 DEN 50.2 3 48.9 3 99.1 1 14
8 SF 48.4 5 49.8 1 98.2 2 22
11 HOU 49.1 4 47.8 4 97.0 3 30
7 PIT 41.4 19 48.9 2 90.3 4 28
9 NE 57.1 1 32.7 28 89.8 5 25
7 SEA 44.5 10 43.1 7 87.6 6 15
8 GB 44.5 9 42.8 8 87.3 7 19
6 WAS 52.7 2 33.4 27 86.1 8 18
8 CHI 39.3 22 46.2 5 85.5 9 17
11 ATL 46.7 6 37.8 15 84.5 10 31
7 CIN 43.3 11 40.2 10 83.5 11 29
6 DAL 43.1 13 38.0 13 81.1 12 10
4 DET 44.9 7 36.1 19 81.0 13 13
7 NYG 44.8 8 35.7 21 80.5 14 4
4 SD 39.0 23 40.1 11 79.1 15 26
5 BUF 43.2 12 35.8 20 78.9 16 28
9 BAL 41.0 20 37.8 14 78.8 17 17
6 TB 42.9 14 35.7 21 78.6 18 24
8 IND 42.3 17 34.8 25 77.1 19 32
3 PHI 41.5 18 34.9 24 76.3 20 20
3 CAR 42.3 16 33.8 26 76.2 21 6
6 MIN 39.5 21 36.2 18 75.7 22 12
5 STL 38.3 25 37.4 16 75.6 23 2
5 MIA 32.5 29 42.7 9 75.3 24 21
2 KC 38.3 24 35.6 23 74.0 25 11
5 NYJ 34.2 28 38.9 12 73.1 26 2
4 ARI 27.3 32 44.7 6 71.9 27 7
3 OAK 37.8 26 31.5 29 69.3 28 23
4 CLE 32.2 30 36.8 17 69.0 29 9
5 NO 42.8 15 26.0 32 68.9 30 9
4 TEN 36.7 27 29.0 31 65.7 31 3
2 JAC 30.0 31 29.8 30 59.8 32 5

*Blended SOS is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk13. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.

AFC East Wins Loss
NE 11.62 4.38
BUF 7.13 8.87
NYJ 6.92 9.08
MIA 6.56 9.44
NFC East Wins Loss
NYG 9.36 6.64
WAS 8.30 7.70
DAL 7.77 8.23
PHI 4.63 11.37
AFC North Wins Loss
BAL 10.69 5.31
PIT 9.97 6.03
CIN 8.80 7.20
CLE 6.56 9.44
NFC North Wins Loss
GB 10.83 5.18
CHI 10.02 5.98
MIN 7.29 8.71
DET 6.24 9.76
AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 14.01 1.99
IND 9.49 6.51
TEN 5.63 10.68
JAC 3.27 12.73
NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 13.18 2.82
TB 7.96 8.04
NO 6.38 9.62
CAR 5.18 10.83
AFC West Wins Loss
DEN 12.23 3.77
SD 5.83 10.17
OAK 4.33 11.67
KC 3.63 12.38
NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.27 4.73
SEA 9.48 6.52
STL 7.36 8.64
ARI 5.34 10.66

AFC Playoff Picture
#1 Houston
#2 Denver
#3 New England vs. #6 Indianapolis
#4 Baltimore vs. #5 Pittsburgh

NFC Playoffs Picture
#1 Atlanta
#2 San Francisco
#3 Green Bay vs. #6 Seattle
#4 N.Y. Giants vs. #5 Chicago

Following my weekly power rating adjustments, and updating for actual wins and losses thru Week 13, here are the teams that have a +/- 0.55 win move in the latest projections:

UP:
STL +1.42
PIT +0.78
CLE +0.74
IND +0.67

DOWN:
BAL
SD
DET (0.68)

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays. These rankings can be used to view the strength I see each team - meaning, I would currently favor Houston over any other team in the NFL on a neutral field; I would also make Jacksonville an underdog vs. another other team on a neutral field; and you can apply that logic to the rest of the rankings.

Power Rankings - Week 14
Rank Team
1 Houston
2 Denver
3 San Francisco
4 New England
5 Pittsburgh
6 Green Bay
7 Seattle
8 Chicago
8 Atlanta
10 New York Giants
11 Washington
12 Baltimore
13 Detroit
14 Dallas
14 Cincinnati
16 St. Louis
17 New Orleans
18 Tampa Bay
18 Carolina
20 Buffalo
21 San Diego
22 Miami
23 New York Jets
23 Minnesota
25 Arizona
26 Indianapolis
27 Cleveland
28 Philadelphia
29 Kansas City
30 Oakland
31 Tennessee
32 Jacksonville

  
HEADLINES
Mejia: NFC Preseason Wrap
Mejia: AFC Preseason Wrap
Lawrence: Trends to Watch - September
Lawrence: 2014 NFC Season Preview
Marshall: Ravens rising up
Lawrence: 2014 AFC Season Preview
ASA: NFC North Notebook
ASA: NFC South Notebook
Marshall: Philadelphia Hype
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