How Did The Combine Effect Each Player’s Draft Stock?

Harry Sadoun Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

It is NFL Draft season and the process is well underway with the Combine wrapping up this past weekend. 321 players arrived in Indianapolis to show scouts what they got and meet with team officials. While the Combine is a great way for freak athletes to show off their talents and move up boards, a lackluster performance at Lucas Oil Stadium can drop players down the board. Using NFL Mock Draft Database’s Consensus Big Board we tracked each player’s overall rank at the start of the event and after it concluded to see how each one helped or hurt themselves at the event.

Caleb Williams entered and exited the biggest scouting event of the year as the top overall ranked player and most likely #1 overall pick, but a lot can change in the time between now and the start of the draft. If you’re interested in wagering on who will be the top pick this April make sure to check out our promos, such as our bet365 bonus code, to get the best offers. With online sports betting kicking off just in time in the state, North Carolina residents can check out our North Carolina sportsbooks review to find the best book for them.

Methodology

We scraped data from NFL Mock Draft Database’s Consensus Big Board which analyzes 112 big boards, 770 first round mock drafts, and 665 team-based mock drafts to create an aggregate ranking for each player. We pulled the rankings first on February 26th, the first day of the Combine, and then again on March 5th, after the event had concluded and leaving a day for post-Combine big boards and mock drafts to be published. 8 players who appeared at the combine were not found in the NFL Mock Draft Database. The full data set can be found here.

Biggest Risers

These players saw the biggest jump up draft boards following their combine performance.

Like most years, the biggest jumps came for players who had received little notoriety and were on the fringes (or not even on the fringes) of being drafted prior to the Combine but put their name on boards with their performance. Purdue running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. had by far the biggest jump of any player, moving up over 400 spots on the Consensus Big Board. The former Iowa Hawkeyes wide receiver tested well athletically more than handled his own in the position drills, despite only having one season of experience under his belt in the backfield. Tracy Jr. turned himself from an unknown into a near lock to be selected on Day 3 this April.

Notable Jumps From Top Prospect

The most noteworthy moves up the board for prospects projected to be selected between Round 1 and Round 3

Looking towards the top of the draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy saw the biggest jump of players expected to go in the first round, moving seven spots up the board. McCarthy showed off an impressive arm and athletic skills following a season in which he led the Wolverines to a national championship but was asked to do little as a passer. The player Jim Harbaugh dubbed the best quarterback in Michigan’s history moved from 24 up to 17 and cemented himself as a Day 1 choice. Texas receiver Xavier Worthy’s record 40 yard dash time bumped him up the board as well. Worthy was already considered a likely second round pick, ranked 44th overall at the start of the combine. After running a blazing 4.21 40 he moved up eight spots to make himself a fringe-first round prospect, especially with the notably receiver-needy Kansas City Chiefs holding the last pick in Round 1. Braden Fiske of Florida State and Max Melton of Rutgers saw significant jumps up the board, each moving up 22 spots. Fiske moved himself from a possible third rounder to a solid second round prospect, while Melton raised his profile from a fringe Day 2 player to a possible second rounder.

Biggest Fallers

These players saw the biggest slide down the big board following the Combine.

Notre Dame linebacker Marist Liufau saw the biggest fall down the board, dropping 47 spots from 160 to 207. That represents a fall from the fifth round to the end of the sixth round. Liufau ranked 22 out of 30 linebackers in Total Combine Score according to NFL.com. Penn State’s Kalen King had one of the most notable drops of all players. Considered a potential future first round pick following the 2022 season, King struggled in 2023 but still entered Indianapolis as a possible, if not likely, second round pick. After a tough showing at the Combine, including the second slowest 40 time of all cornerbacks in attendance, King dropped 43 spots on the big board from 60 to 103. That would be a fall from the late second round to the fourth round.

You can find the full data set here as well as a breakdown by position group.

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Harry Sadoun

Harry Sadoun is a seasoned sports betting expert with a wealth of experience in the iGaming and sports betting industry. Over the past 5 years, he has established himself as a go-to source for insightful analysis and predictions at Vegasinsider. With a passion for sports, Harry specializes in football, basketball, tennis, rugby, and soccer, showcasing a diverse understanding of athletic competitions. Harry's unique approach to sports betting is rooted in a combination of statistical analysis, in-depth research, and a keen understanding of the dynamics that influence game outcomes. His expert opinions and strategic insights have made him a trusted voice in the industry, guiding both novice and seasoned bettors alike. With an unwavering commitment to delivering accurate and up-to-date information, Harry Sadoun continues to be a prominent figure in the world of sports betting, providing enthusiasts with the tools they need to make informed decisions. More from Harry Sadoun