NFL Draft Odds, Betting Trends: Everything You Need To Know

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

NFL Draft odds, if nothing else, demonstrate the league's ability to continually prove how it drives the American sports betting bus. In late April, people are eager to wager on which players NFL teams will draft, and when.

Caleb Williams is the runaway favorite in odds for the NFL Draft's No. 1 overall pick. From there, it gets a lot more interesting. And a lot more challenging for oddsmakers, who annually tend to take a beating from sharp bettors in this market.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 NFL Draft odds: action, line movement and betting trends. And make sure to use our Caesars Sports bonus code to get the most out of your NFL Draft betting action.

2024 NFL Draft Odds

High Degree of Difficulty

Joey Feazel is charged with heading up Caesars Sports' NFL Draft odds each year, in his role as lead college football trader. To say it's a job he doesn't exactly relish would be an understatement.

"Any sort of information-based market tends to be very difficult to book – the NFL Draft, player awards, anything that's not on the field," Feazel said. "Sometimes what it feels like is if, during a game week, the quarterback for every team is questionable. And you have to find the balance throughout the week.

"You have to treat almost every bet as information. You don't know if it's solid information, but you don't know if it isn't, either."

That said, Feazel recognizes that NFL Draft odds are now a staple on the betting calendar.

"It's something we've done the past few years, and it's only gained in popularity," he said. "It's a fun balancing act for the month of April. It's here to stay."

Trojan Horse

Barring something bizarrely unusual, Southern Cal QB Caleb Williams will be selected first overall Thursday night in Detroit, site of the NFL Draft. Chicago traded Justin Fields – the Bears' first-round pick in 2021 – to the Pittsburgh Steelers in March.

That made it 99.999% certain the Bears, who hold the No. 1 pick, will select Williams. Caesars Sports still has the No. 1 overall pick on its NFL Draft odds board. But Williams is a massive -1000000 favorite – yes, minus a million – on Draft day.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is a distant +4000 second choice. North Carolina QB Drake Maye follows at +7500, then Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. at +15000.

"Williams is minus a billion," Feazel said half-jokingly. "We're very certain it's gonna be Caleb taken off the board first. He's been the favorite since last April. People liken him to Patrick Mahomes, just because of his style of play. He's more of an improviser.

"But people are still betting on Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr., even though it's very unlikely to happen."

When Williams was at -20000, a Caesars customer put a whopping $100,000 on the USC quarterback to go No. 1 overall. Presuming that bet wins, the customer would profit all of $500.

Battle for No. 2

Daniels and Maye are in pretty much a two-way chase in odds for the No. 2 overall pick. Daniels has been the favorite throughout, but this market has been quite volatile over the past few days.

"Daniels took some money today. He's now at -350," Feazel said Monday evening. "He was about -300 two weeks ago. Then there were rumors going around, his agent reportedly wasn't happy. There are always smokescreens with the Draft.

"So Sunday, it was as low as -125 on Jayden."

It's been all Daniels since, though, and the liability rests with the LSU star. A few hours before the event begins, Daniels is all the way out to -900 in NFL Draft odds on the No. 2 overall pick.

Maye is the +550 second choice, followed by Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy at +1300. It's all quarterbacks at the top because the Washington Commanders desperately need a QB.

"For the most part, Jayden is the loser. But he's our only loser, and it's not a big loser," Feazel said. "I don't think the decision has been made yet. It seems to be Jayden, but with the Draft, this could change hourly."

Where Will J.J. Play?

Position props – Over/Unders on what slot a player is selected – are quite popular in the NFL Draft odds market. Among the most talked-about this year: J.J. McCarthy Over/Under 5.5.

The Michigan quarterback has seen his stock significantly climb since last April, when Caesars first put the NFL Draft on the board. This specific prop is a late addition, going up more recently.

"Going into this [a year ago], he was not on our radar as a top-three/top-four quarterback," Feazel said. "But the NFL really likes J.J., really likes his ceiling."

Bettors seem to think 5.5 is about the right number. McCarthy Under 5.5 is a -160 favorite, with Over at +130.

"We're pretty back-and-forth on action. It's stayed at 5.5, and the juice has gone back-and-forth," Feazel said. "We're expecting him to be a top-five pick. But it was the same thing with Will Levis last year, and he didn't go until the second round."

Indeed, Levis was seen as the fourth-best QB in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bryce Young went No. 1 overall to Carolina, followed by C.J. Stroud at No. 2 to Houston. Then Anthony Richardson went No. 4 overall to Indianapolis.

But there were no more quarterbacks taken across the final 28 picks of the first round. Levis went to Tennessee with the second pick of the second round.

Earlier this month, The Action Network's Jacob Wayne made the Levis/McCarthy comparison.

QB Or Not QB?

That is the question, to paraphrase Shakespeare. In this case, it refers to another popular prop on the NFL Draft odds board: Over/Under 4.5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round.

"It's gonna be our biggest decision," Feazel said. "The public and Draft insiders like to take the Over. Opening up, we did favor the Under."

However, Over -4.5 is now a healthy -450 favorite, while Under 4.5 is +300.

Based on odds for other NFL Draft props, it appears four QBs could go within the first five picks: Williams, Daniels, Maye and McCarthy. As noted above, Williams is a mortal lock to go No. 1 overall to the Bears.

Writing for The Action Network, Nick Guarisco had it going as follows Monday:

• Williams to the Bears at No. 1
• Maye to the Commanders at No. 2
• Daniels to the Patriots at No. 3
• McCarthy to the Vikings at No. 5

However, on Draft day, Guarisco has McCarthy going to the Vikes at No. 11. Regardless, that's four QBs in either the first five picks or first 11 picks. But Guarisco doesn't have another QB – most notably Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr. – going in the first round.

Which doesn't surprise Feazel.

"I think it's still pretty possible we won't see another quarterback until the second round," Feazel said. "It's been one of the most popular props, especially to the Over. But once the odds got up there, we saw sharp action to the Under. It's an interesting one, and one we're gonna be watching closely."

Nix and Penix are projected to go early in the second round.

The Last In Line

Caesars Sports has another interesting prop on its NFL Draft odds board: Position of the player drafted last.

Quarterback is the +330 favorite, but it's a pretty close race all around. Defensive lineman/edge rusher is the +475 second choice, offensive lineman is +550, and cornerback is the +650 co-fourth choice with wide receiver.

"We try to get that prop up ever year. It's more relevant with Brock Purdy being that player a couple years ago," Feazel said.

In the 2022 Draft, Purdy was taken dead last in the seventh round. All he's done since is lead San Fran to the 2022-23 NFC Championship Game and the 2023-24 Super Bowl.

"It's a fun market. It's the only prop that actually feels like gambling. It could go anywhere, and it's something customers enjoy betting," Feazel said. "It's the most random part of the Draft."

Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson