Books exposed on SB Under
January 22, 2013
Super Bowl Action Report:
Baltimore Ravens (+4) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4); Total 47.5
We opened the 49ers -5 before the Ravens game vs. the Pats went final. With the Ravens victory freshly in the minds of bettors, the money came in on the Ravens big time. It wasn’t long before we went to 4.5 and eventually settled on 4 Sunday night. Since going to 49ers -4 we are dead even on the game at that number. We are not at all concerned about the early exposure at +5 and +4.5 as those are pretty much dead numbers in the NFL. Also, that early money is inconsequential when you consider it makes up only about 1% of the volume we’re going to book on this game.
The real move came on the opening total. We opened 49.5 and quickly went to 49 and then 48.5 before settling on 48 early Monday morning. We remained at 48 all day and night, but early this morning we moved to 47.5 and I doubt we’ll go any lower than the current number. No question the early money betting it under was sharp money and we moved quickly because we knew we opened it too high. This is the Super Bowl, the biggest bet game of the year, and we believe every recreational player and every new player that signs up with us in the next 2 weeks will be betting this game over. So while we’re currently exposed big time on the under, no question come Super Bowl Sunday we will be long to the over and need this game to stay under 48 points.
Super Bowl Futures
We’ve already lost money on the Ravens winning the AFC Conference and we are definitely exposed on them winning the Super Bowl, and the exposure is quite significant. Bottom line, bettors believed in this Ravens team and got behind them with their money before they went on this unexpected win streak. Before the playoffs started, the Ravens were somewhat of a long shot at 25/1 odds and even after their impressive win over the Colts in Round 1, they were still 20/1 to win the Super Bowl. Bettors weren’t concerned that the Ravens would have to win two road games against the two best teams in the AFC, the Broncos and Patriots, just to get to the Super Bowl. They backed them at 25/1 and 20/1 and obviously have outstanding value on their hands with a huge opportunity for a big score.
Another Super Bowl future we’re quite exposed on is Ray Lewis winning the MVP. We opened this future early last week with it being noted that All Bets are actioned (meaning regardless if the player from your team plays in the Super Bowl or not, you’re bet is live). So with the Ravens being such heavy underdogs to the Patriots, we opened Ray Lewis at 50/1 and suffice to say we’re quite exposed on him at the enormous number. We’re currently using 6/1 and we hope not to write another ticket on him at any price!
As for the 49ers, early on in the season we knew this was a team that was going to be around late in the season. Our odds have remained relatively low on them all season and we will do great if they end up beating the Ravens in this game.
11-5 L4 Sundays, +1,240 TY
3-0 Sunday, 7-2 Guarantees TY
7-0 L2 Thurs., 15-6 L21 Totals
3-1 Sun, 11-4 G-Plays, 10-4 Totals
3-0 Week 13, 10-5 L15 G-Plays
20-8 L28 Totals, 26-13 L7 Sundays
11-4 L15 G-Plays, 30-16 L9 Sun.
4 Guaranteed Wins in a Row
12-5 L17 Totals, 27-15 L42 Picks
6-3 Last 9 NFL Selections
10-4 Record Last 4 Sundays
6-3 L9 Picks, 10-4 Totals TY
5-2 L2 Thursdays, 11-7 Sunday
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